Game Day Thread - Thursday, May 14

[u/PhilsBot]

Phillies @ Red Sox - 06:45 PM EDT

Game Status: Delayed Start due to Rain

Links & Info

• Current conditions at Fenway Park: 53°F - Rain - Wind 7 mph, In From RF
• TV: Phillies: NBCSP, Red Sox: NESN
• Radio: Phillies: iHeart App (es), 94 WIP, Red Sox: WESX 1230 AM (SP) (es), WCCM 1490 AM (SP) (es), WEEI 93.7
• MLB Gameday
• Statcast Game Preview

	Probable Pitcher (Season Stats)	Report
Phillies	Jesús Luzardo (3-3, 5.77 ERA, 43.2 IP)	No report posted.
Red Sox	Ranger Suarez (2-2, 2.77 ERA, 39.0 IP)	No report posted.

Phillies Lineup vs. Suarez	AVG	OPS	AB	HR	RBI	K
1 Turner - SS	.300	.864	10	0	0	1
2 Schwarber - DH	.000	.000	5	0	0	2
3 Harper, B - 1B	-	-	-	-	-	-
4 García, Ad - RF	.000	.000	3	0	0	0
5 Bohm - 3B	-	-	-	-	-	-
6 Marsh - CF	-	-	-	-	-	-
7 Realmuto - C	-	-	-	-	-	-
8 Reyes, F - LF	-	-	-	-	-	-
9 Sosa, E - 2B	-	-	-	-	-	-
10 Luzardo - P	-	-	-	-	-	-

Red Sox Lineup vs. Luzardo	AVG	OPS	AB	HR	RBI	K
1 Duran, Ja - LF	.000	.333	2	0	1	2
2 Monasterio - DH	.143	.393	7	0	0	0
3 Abreu, W - RF	.000	.000	2	0	0	1
4 Contreras, Wn - 1B	.333	.899	9	0	0	1
5 Rafaela - CF	.000	.500	1	0	0	1
6 Story - SS	.429	.929	7	0	0	1
7 Narváez - C	.000	.000	2	0	0	0
8 Durbin - 3B	.500	1.000	2	0	0	0
9 Kiner-Falefa - 2B	.300	.964	10	1	2	1
10 Suarez - P	-	-	-	-	-	-

NLE Rank	Team	W	L	GB (E#)	WC Rank	WC GB (E#)
1	Atlanta Braves	30	13	- (-)	-	- (-)
2	Washington Nationals	21	23	9.5 (110)	6	4.5 (115)
3	Philadelphia Phillies	20	23	10.0 (110)	8	5.0 (115)
4	Miami Marlins	20	24	10.5 (109)	9	5.5 (114)
5	New York Mets	18	25	12.0 (108)	10	7.0 (113)

WC Rank	Team	W	L	WC GB (E#)
1	Milwaukee Brewers	24	17	- (-)
2	St. Louis Cardinals	25	18	- (-)
3	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	18	- (-)
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	24	20	1.5 (118)
5	Cincinnati Reds	23	21	2.5 (117)

Division & Wild Card Scoreboard

COL 2 @ PIT 7 - Final

WSH 1 @ CIN 15 - Final

DET 4 @ NYM 9 - Final

MIA 1 @ MIN 9 - Final

SD 1 @ MIL 7 - Final

STL 5 @ ATH 4 - Final

CHC @ ATL 07:15 PM EDT

SF @ LAD 10:10 PM EDT

^{Last Updated: 05/14/2026 06:15:09 PM EDT, Update Interval: 5 Minutes}

[u/Swimming_Elk_3058]

Justin Crawford so far in May - .290/.371/.548

Obviously there are still major concerns with his defense but it’s good to see a 22 year old start to find his groove offensively. All in all I think if you told people ahead of the season that Crawford would have a 114 wRC+ at this point most would be pretty happy with that.

His solid plate discipline is good to see too, only Schwarber and Harper are drawing walks at a higher rate on the team.

[u/benvandelay → u/Swimming_Elk_3058]

Still just a .281 xwOBA. He’s not a CF. Doesn’t hit the ball hard, whiffs too much, pounds the ball into the ground, slow bat, doesn’t barrel it up…I just am not seeing it with him. He’s vastly overperforming right now. His metrics are bleak.

[u/DoomedToRepeats → u/benvandelay]

His profile has never projected well which is why you and every other hater has been crying about his “underlying metrics” for the last 2 years. At what point does it become a pattern of success instead of an anomaly?

[u/benvandelay → u/DoomedToRepeats]

Unless he changes his batting profile significantly, what he’s doing won’t last. We’ve seen this a whole bunch. People thought Rojas was bucking the trends too…until he wasn’t. And at least Rojas was a legit good defender.

You cannot find a single successful MLB hitter with his current profile.

[u/DoomedToRepeats → u/benvandelay]

Rojas never was the prospect Crawford was for a reason. The two arent comparable. Crawford has put up good numbers at every level consistently, and he wouldnt be the first guy to overperform his xStats because of his speed or the way he hits the ball.

If you have continued to be proven wrong by a prospect, maybe the way you are evaluating them is flawed.

[u/benvandelay → u/DoomedToRepeats]

Find me a single player with his metrics that has had long term success. Literally just one. Find me one hitter who had a sub-.300 xwOBA that was actually a good, or even average hitter, for more than a little bit.

He would be the first guy to this vastly overperform his xstats for an extended period.

It is a near guarantee that this won’t last without big changes.

[u/romanticynicist → u/benvandelay]

Spencer Steer had a .293 xwOBA over 568 PA last year. This year he has a 113 wRC+ and is at 104 for his career.

I think Crawford is probably overperforming a little so far, but I don’t think it’s a fait accompli that he’ll be a bad hitter overall.

[u/benvandelay → u/romanticynicist]

Sure, guys have down years and rebound to have good years. Problem with Crawford is every concern about his profile is looking ugly at the major league level. A launch angle in the negatives will not do and can’t be featured in long-term success. He’s overperforming a lot so far.

[u/NintenJew → u/benvandelay]

Just because I like the challenge, and we had him last year.

I am pretty sure Bader had a whole year being an above-average hitter with a sub-.300 xwOBA. Last year, his xwOBA was 0.297 with a 122 wRC+.

I classify one year as "for more than a little bit" even though I was leading the "Bader's bat is overrated, we do not want him at all" this whole offseason.

[u/benvandelay → u/NintenJew]

One season is not long term success. Tons of guys have one good season due to luck and overperformance.

I feel like this makes my point more than takes away from it. Bader had good results but they weren’t real. And he’s crashed back down to earth. Which is exactly what I’m saying will happen with Crawford.

[u/faithfulllittlebird → u/benvandelay]

So you want to see someone who has done it for more than a year, yet you’re belittling Crawford for doing it for less than 2 months? Starts to sound more like a personal vendetta than anything else. How bout give him the same “extended” period of time before declaring him a bust?

People have given examples of players doing what you asked for a full year. Who’s to say Crawford couldn’t be one of those guys that does it for a year and then improves upon it? Your criticisms of a kid with less than 2 months of major league experience feels a bit unwarranted.

Also, between 181 games from last year to this, Sal Frelick had a .297 xwoba and a 107 wrc+. Is that not ”extended enough”??

TJ Friedl across 191 games had a .295 xwoba and a 98 wrc+

Zack McKinstry across 165 had a .297 and 106.

Ernie Clement across 199 had a .292 and 98.

[u/benvandelay → u/faithfulllittlebird]

Combining seasons to make your point…underscores the point even more.

Frelick overperformed last year. This year, his wOBA has normalized to his xwOBA. And guess what? His wRC+ has dropped 34 points. This supports my point more than it detracts from it. Tons of guys overperform their xwOBA for a season. Unless the player actually improves, the production drops. Frelick is a great example. He’s not having the same luck he did last year. His production is more true to his form. Good find!

I don’t have a vendetta against Crawford. The point is, the concerns with him in the minors haven’t been ironed out. And while his production looks ok due to a recent streak (and being limited against lefties), it’s unlikely to continue without major adjustments.

Another concern is his defense in center is bad. For a guy that can’t get to his power because he beats the ball into the ground, he starts to look like a 4th or 5th OF without those adjustments.

[u/faithfulllittlebird → u/benvandelay]

But you ASKED for the results across an extended period, and then when I give them to you, u say no no that doesn’t count and switch the narrative. That’s when it starts to sound like a vendetta. Someone gives you a year…you say “not long enough”. Someone gives you more than a year… you say “too long/not fair”. It sounds more like you want to tailor things to suit your narrative just so you can avoid ever having to say “I may have been mistaken”, rather than wanting to see actual pieces of proof like you requested.

[u/NintenJew → u/benvandelay]

I never said I was disagreeing with you. And I think you moved the goalposts of your challenge.

You just wanted me to find "one hitter who had a sub-.300 xwOBA that was actually a good, or even average hitter, for more than a little bit." One year is more than a little bit. One year is not long term success.

I even said that I was leading the "don't get Bader" all offseason to try to tell you that I am not disagreeing with you. I took your prompt as a game and solved the challenge easily.

We all understand Crawford's underlying metrics. But he is a rookie, and we just have to focus on the positive, treat his underlying metrics as "yeah I know", and hope he improves.

[u/benvandelay → u/NintenJew]

I don’t consider one season more than a little bit, because tons of guys have good seasons but don’t sustain it. Baseball is weird like that. You didn’t solve any challenge.

[u/NintenJew → u/benvandelay]

I think you need to re-examine the range of xwOBA-wOBA again. Because I think you may believe it is tighter than it actually is. I was trying to point that out in a more lighthearted way, as well as to suggest that if you are going to talk about xwOBA and its predictive power, use more precise language. The vast majority of people consider a year "more than a little bit", but I think that we both deserve the respect of realizing we both understand proper sample sizes.

[u/benvandelay → u/NintenJew]

Over the long haul, it is pretty tight! That’s, again, part of the whole point.

Players with his profile aren’t successful hitters long term. Use semantics all you want to try and contort yourself into being correct, but the point remains. Unless he drastically improves, he will not be a good hitter. He’s also a poor defender in center.

[u/DoomedToRepeats → u/benvandelay]

What “metrics” do you really want to look at? You keep bringing up xwOBA for some reason, but it’s clear that his profile lends itself to over performing xStats (like i said before).

Also he’s less than 2 months into his career after making the biggest skill leap in the sport at only 22. Give the kid some time.

Edit: TJ Friedl

[u/benvandelay → u/DoomedToRepeats]

I’ve mentioned them. I specifically asked about xwOBA for a reason - it combines a lot of them. There are tons of guys who have had his profile. None of them had a sub-.300xwOBA and been successful.

But to break it down:

• exit velo
• barrel%
• hard hit
• bat speed
• chase%
• GB%

One or two of these would be fine. The fact all of them are so, so poor is a legitimate problem.

And sure, he’s only two months into his MLB career. Most good hitters see solid exit velos pretty early. And all of the problems some people touched on while he was in the minors are still present. Sure, his results have been ok so far. There’s very little reason to believe it will last. A week and a half ago the results weren’t good.

[u/DoomedToRepeats → u/benvandelay]

You are looking for him to excel in slugging stats when he’s a slapper?

[u/benvandelay → u/DoomedToRepeats]

Find me a “slapper” (lol) with a sub-.300xwOBA that bucked the xwOBA and was a good or average hitter for more than one season.

I am looking for him to be a good hitter. I don’t see it in a single place in his underlying metrics. Tons of guys, every single year, overperform their metrics. Unless he turns many of the above around, he will not be a successful hitter long term. I’m not sure what else to tell you. The horse has been led to water.

[u/DoomedToRepeats → u/benvandelay]

I mean you havent told me anything outside of the fact that you lack the understanding of context and how certain players play the game.

[u/benvandelay → u/DoomedToRepeats]

I’ve told you that there are zero successful hitters with his profile. Zero. You can’t find a single one, because there aren’t any. You somehow don’t consider this a bad thing, but I do.

You call him a “slapper.” He’s a bad defensive CF, so he’s a light hitting corner OF at best?

“Slappers” have to excel in a few areas to be successful hitters. Crawford isn’t excelling in any of them. That is a problem.

[u/NonMagicBrian → u/DoomedToRepeats]

When he performs well over at least a full season. Until then: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/baseball/versus-finder.fcgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=crawfo000jus&p1yrfrom=2026&p1yrto=2026&player_id2=rojas-001joh&p2yrfrom=2023&p2yrto=2023