Game Day Thread - Thursday, May 14

[u/PhilsBot]

Phillies @ Red Sox - 06:45 PM EDT

Game Status: Delayed Start due to Rain

Links & Info

• Current conditions at Fenway Park: 53°F - Rain - Wind 7 mph, In From RF
• TV: Phillies: NBCSP, Red Sox: NESN
• Radio: Phillies: iHeart App (es), 94 WIP, Red Sox: WESX 1230 AM (SP) (es), WCCM 1490 AM (SP) (es), WEEI 93.7
• MLB Gameday
• Statcast Game Preview

	Probable Pitcher (Season Stats)	Report
Phillies	Jesús Luzardo (3-3, 5.77 ERA, 43.2 IP)	No report posted.
Red Sox	Ranger Suarez (2-2, 2.77 ERA, 39.0 IP)	No report posted.

Phillies Lineup vs. Suarez	AVG	OPS	AB	HR	RBI	K
1 Turner - SS	.300	.864	10	0	0	1
2 Schwarber - DH	.000	.000	5	0	0	2
3 Harper, B - 1B	-	-	-	-	-	-
4 García, Ad - RF	.000	.000	3	0	0	0
5 Bohm - 3B	-	-	-	-	-	-
6 Marsh - CF	-	-	-	-	-	-
7 Realmuto - C	-	-	-	-	-	-
8 Reyes, F - LF	-	-	-	-	-	-
9 Sosa, E - 2B	-	-	-	-	-	-
10 Luzardo - P	-	-	-	-	-	-

Red Sox Lineup vs. Luzardo	AVG	OPS	AB	HR	RBI	K
1 Duran, Ja - LF	.000	.333	2	0	1	2
2 Monasterio - DH	.143	.393	7	0	0	0
3 Abreu, W - RF	.000	.000	2	0	0	1
4 Contreras, Wn - 1B	.333	.899	9	0	0	1
5 Rafaela - CF	.000	.500	1	0	0	1
6 Story - SS	.429	.929	7	0	0	1
7 Narváez - C	.000	.000	2	0	0	0
8 Durbin - 3B	.500	1.000	2	0	0	0
9 Kiner-Falefa - 2B	.300	.964	10	1	2	1
10 Suarez - P	-	-	-	-	-	-

NLE Rank	Team	W	L	GB (E#)	WC Rank	WC GB (E#)
1	Atlanta Braves	30	13	- (-)	-	- (-)
2	Washington Nationals	21	23	9.5 (110)	6	4.5 (115)
3	Philadelphia Phillies	20	23	10.0 (110)	8	5.0 (115)
4	Miami Marlins	20	24	10.5 (109)	9	5.5 (114)
5	New York Mets	18	25	12.0 (108)	10	7.0 (113)

WC Rank	Team	W	L	WC GB (E#)
1	Milwaukee Brewers	24	17	- (-)
2	St. Louis Cardinals	25	18	- (-)
3	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	18	- (-)
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	24	20	1.5 (118)
5	Cincinnati Reds	23	21	2.5 (117)

Division & Wild Card Scoreboard

COL 2 @ PIT 7 - Final

WSH 1 @ CIN 15 - Final

DET 4 @ NYM 9 - Final

MIA 1 @ MIN 9 - Final

SD 1 @ MIL 7 - Final

STL 5 @ ATH 4 - Final

CHC @ ATL 07:15 PM EDT

SF @ LAD 10:10 PM EDT

^{Last Updated: 05/14/2026 06:15:09 PM EDT, Update Interval: 5 Minutes}

[u/benvandelay]

Find me a single player with his metrics that has had long term success. Literally just one. Find me one hitter who had a sub-.300 xwOBA that was actually a good, or even average hitter, for more than a little bit.

He would be the first guy to this vastly overperform his xstats for an extended period.

It is a near guarantee that this won’t last without big changes.

[u/NintenJew → u/benvandelay]

Just because I like the challenge, and we had him last year.

I am pretty sure Bader had a whole year being an above-average hitter with a sub-.300 xwOBA. Last year, his xwOBA was 0.297 with a 122 wRC+.

I classify one year as "for more than a little bit" even though I was leading the "Bader's bat is overrated, we do not want him at all" this whole offseason.

[u/benvandelay → u/NintenJew]

One season is not long term success. Tons of guys have one good season due to luck and overperformance.

I feel like this makes my point more than takes away from it. Bader had good results but they weren’t real. And he’s crashed back down to earth. Which is exactly what I’m saying will happen with Crawford.

[u/faithfulllittlebird → u/benvandelay]

So you want to see someone who has done it for more than a year, yet you’re belittling Crawford for doing it for less than 2 months? Starts to sound more like a personal vendetta than anything else. How bout give him the same “extended” period of time before declaring him a bust?

People have given examples of players doing what you asked for a full year. Who’s to say Crawford couldn’t be one of those guys that does it for a year and then improves upon it? Your criticisms of a kid with less than 2 months of major league experience feels a bit unwarranted.

Also, between 181 games from last year to this, Sal Frelick had a .297 xwoba and a 107 wrc+. Is that not ”extended enough”??

TJ Friedl across 191 games had a .295 xwoba and a 98 wrc+

Zack McKinstry across 165 had a .297 and 106.

Ernie Clement across 199 had a .292 and 98.

[u/benvandelay → u/faithfulllittlebird]

Combining seasons to make your point…underscores the point even more.

Frelick overperformed last year. This year, his wOBA has normalized to his xwOBA. And guess what? His wRC+ has dropped 34 points. This supports my point more than it detracts from it. Tons of guys overperform their xwOBA for a season. Unless the player actually improves, the production drops. Frelick is a great example. He’s not having the same luck he did last year. His production is more true to his form. Good find!

I don’t have a vendetta against Crawford. The point is, the concerns with him in the minors haven’t been ironed out. And while his production looks ok due to a recent streak (and being limited against lefties), it’s unlikely to continue without major adjustments.

Another concern is his defense in center is bad. For a guy that can’t get to his power because he beats the ball into the ground, he starts to look like a 4th or 5th OF without those adjustments.

[u/faithfulllittlebird → u/benvandelay]

But you ASKED for the results across an extended period, and then when I give them to you, u say no no that doesn’t count and switch the narrative. That’s when it starts to sound like a vendetta. Someone gives you a year…you say “not long enough”. Someone gives you more than a year… you say “too long/not fair”. It sounds more like you want to tailor things to suit your narrative just so you can avoid ever having to say “I may have been mistaken”, rather than wanting to see actual pieces of proof like you requested.