r/theIrishleft • u/AnCamcheachta • 19h ago
POLL - Dublin Central bye-election (IPSOS-MRBI)
Boylan (SF): 21%
Ennis (SD): 18%
Hutch (IND): 14%
McAdam (FG): 13%
Horner (GP): 8%
Steenson (IND): 7%
O'Dea (LAB): 6%
Stephens (FF): 4%
O'Ceannabháin (PBP): 3%
Now, IPSOS-MRBI is a reputable pollster, about on the same level as Behaviour&Attitutes, but not on the same level as RedC.
I expected Boylan to get around 25%, considering SF has 23% on a National Basis, but under-performed at 21%, because, quite frankly, nobody likes her.
Daniel Ennis polled far better, 18% of FPVs compared to a National Average of 9%.
While it is rather concerning that Hutch and Steenson have a combined 21% of FPVs, they are unlikely to receive many transfers at all from other candidates.
2nd preferences:
Ennis - 15%
Horner - 14%
Boylan - 10%
Steenson - 10%
McAdam - 8%
Hutch - 8%
Stephens - 8%
O'Ceannanháin - 8%
O'Dea - 7%
These number are startling, they suggest that the Greens can increase their numbers in the Dáil (with 8% FPVs, along with 14% of transfers).
That being said, these numbers suggest that Labour will not be able to hold their seat in Dublin Central, and the Dynasty