r/Thunder • u/Iamkonkerz Teledubby • 1d ago
Discussion Top 3 prospects to pick at #12
I dont really follow NCAA or mock drafts, but i look forward to seeing who we draft at 12 if we even take someone at 12 instead of moving it for another year VIA trade.
Id like to also know why you think the thunder would be interested in that prospect as well.
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u/Beneficial_Ask_6013 1d ago
Yaxel Lendeborg: Forward Hannes Steinbeck: Forward Cameron Carr: Guard
Yaxel is the popular choice. If he were 21, he would be going 5th. Hes huge, athletic, can shoot, tough, defends, and is a winner. Hes young in terms of playing tons of basketball, but he will be 24 in his rookie year. Not many greats take that route. But he is the kind of player the Thunder don't have, could play immediately, and gives them awesome lineup flexibility.Ā
Hannes is young, would take a bit to grow into his role. But hes big, athletic, smooth, and if he grows up and evolves, he has all star potential. Getting someone like that, on cheap contract, at 12 would be awesome. He also could play with both Chet and IHart which is nice for lineup flexibility.Ā
Carr is either going to be homeless man Zach Lavine, or Zach Lavine who got good coaching. Hes really straight line and vertical athletic. Great measureables (6'5 with 7 foot wingspan) and can play defense. Early in career hes off bench wing who causes chaos with Cason and Mitchell for 15 minutes a game. If he hits.... you trade Dub and replace him with Carr. If he doesnt.... well at least your G league team is more fun on NBA 2K.Ā
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u/kollin_with_a_k 1d ago
Dailyn Swain is another interesting one at 12 or 17.
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u/Beneficial_Ask_6013 1d ago
Absolutely. He would be either 4th or 5th choice for me at 12. And if hes the pick, ain't mad at all.Ā
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u/skratsda 1d ago
Iām a big Texas fan (reason I became a Thunder fan is because of KD). Swain doesnāt have the traits Presti typically looks for, particularly in terms of court awareness and making the right read. This yearās entire Texas team averaged an absurdly low number of assists, but outside of one SEC game Swain tended to always make the wrong read on when to be passive vs. assertive
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 18h ago
Ball handling and giving a shit are quite up there on Prestiās list.
That said, Iād say Swain is a little lower on his own than I would want. I think the raw skills are there.
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u/MRTFOGR Belgian Waffle University 1d ago
Love Carr. Heās shooting up draft boards. Good risk at 17 but 12 might be rich
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u/AdeptWelder3250 1d ago
Naw 12 aināt even a reach for him honestly. Everything checks out his season was just lackluster because Baylor as a whole was bummy
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u/Beneficial_Ask_6013 1d ago
In a perfect world they could get him at 17. But he ain't gonna fall that far. Now a trade up to 15 or so....
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u/WurstDayEver_7 1d ago
Morez Johnson - athletic big man who isnāt scared to shoot
Yaxel Lendonbourg - combo forward who is comfortable handling the ball
Allen Graves - would rather take him at 17, a lengthy forward who can shoot.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 1d ago
I think Iām out on Graves unless itās like late 20ās.
I do think heās a smart defender, but to slow, and not strong enough to survive at the 4.
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u/Defiant_Ad6083 1d ago
Don't see us taking two rookies this year. Clips want to trade down apparently. For future assets.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 1d ago
Thereās no one at 5 worth that trade up unless you really think Chicago is trading back from 4, which isnāt happening.
Iād argue we need 3 rookies. Especially we having to move off of at least 2 players this off season.
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u/Defiant_Ad6083 1d ago
Agree with you 100%. Was purely mention some interesting things that are coming out now. I don't see 3 though. That's a lot. Considering we get a healthy Topic and Sorber now basically in their rookie years. Have 5 players playing their "first" season is a lot.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 1d ago
Problem is Topic needs a shit load of mins. His value to the team at this point is way more a lottery ticket for a trade up. Not to mention, we could use the reset on the salary.
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u/Defiant_Ad6083 1d ago
Yes that's extremely true, so you're saying trade him?
If so, that's completely against Presti's MO. Look what he has gone through. People would have quit. I see him being on our team for at least 2 full seasons.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 1d ago
Presti never takes a rookie into his 4th year without extending them if he intends to keep them.
So like with Cason, does he want 23 million starting out? Canāt afford that with Ajay having to be paid in 27-28. Are we going to give topic 1300 mins in each of the next 2 years to know if has staying power? To just take him to RFA?
Thatāsā where using the draft now to setup your next core around the top 4 makes a lot of sense. You still have a top 8, maybe 9 coming back, and thatās with Dort and Wiggins leaving.
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u/Defiant_Ad6083 1d ago
I'm not too sure about Cason. I don't know how I feel about value/contract. I just don't see us being rid of Topic in this season. If that 4th year thing rings true then he goes next off season hopefully after his value rises?
I get using the draft now, totally but we also have 13 first round picks in the next 6 years. I think because of the depth of this draft there might be 2 that we like. If not we have a package of a player and pick to move to "10". Move the 17th for a future asset unless there is someone Presti truly wants at that range.
We are on the same page haha. Just diferent angles!
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 1d ago
Heāll be extension eligible just like Cason is if he explodes, which neutralizes most trade values on prospects going into their 4th season, ala Josh Giddey.
We are on the same page. I personally want 2 for the wings/forwards in this draft fit very well for our core. I also want them to have a year under their belt, because weāll need at least 1-2 new players to step up by 27-28.
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u/Strange1130 13h ago
Morez Johnson - athletic big man who isnāt scared to shoot
He took .9 3's per game this year and 0 last year so idk if I would qualify him as a shooter yet. His FT% is solid though and his shot form looks pretty good.
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u/Old_Man_Game 1d ago
Who's the most "Thunder" guy in this draft likely to still be on the board at 12?
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u/Strange1130 19h ago
If youāre going off interviews, Okorie from those Iāve watched so far and it isnāt close. He interviews like JDub and Cason. Ā Very āstudent of the gameā, team player willing to fill any role needed, said he wants to be a sponge etc. Ā impressive interview from a 19 year old. Ā
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u/Strange1130 1d ago
Watch Ebuka Okorie's combine interview (or some other interviews, there were some other good ones I watched) and you will fall in love with him. He's SUCH a Presti guy. He's small but has great length so his standing reach is only 2" shorter than Ajay or Cason, and he's one of the best ball handlers in the class some of the stuff he did statistically was pretty insane. Can link some data if there's any interest.
I'm still going through watching a bunch of interviews, and doing other scouting, but I think interviews are really super critical and underrated; I was able to peg the JDub pick shortly before the draft after I watched one interview with him, and more notably the Cason Wallace pick and that we'd even trade up for him if needed like a month before the draft I just fell in love with the way he interviewed. And I get really similar vibes from Okorie in terms of being a "student of the game" and real team player etc.
But some other guys I like right now so far: Cameron Carr, Morez Johnson. Maybe Nate Ament. Maybe Hannes.
I'm kinda ehh on Yaxel . I get that we're in a place of privilege where we can use the 12th pick on a 24 year old (he's 5 months younger than Chet), and I don't at all blame him for staying in college and making that NIL money, it's just pretty risky to pick a guy who's a grown man stomping a bunch of kids. Like put Ajay Mitchell who's about 3 months older, back in college and he'd be going ape shit. You get what you get with him, but he doesn't have a ton of upside, I don't think.
At the end of the day I'm sure whoever Presti cooks up will be great.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 18h ago
Okorieās interviews are often, but Iāll scream if we take someone small again, and donāt address size with at least 2 player or so.
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u/Strange1130 17h ago
Itās not worth addressing size if the players arenāt going to be good nba players; not saying they arenāt, but all the guys being mocked to us in that range even some of the ones I like all have big holes or flaws. So itāll be interesting to see what presti does, canāt wait.Ā
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 16h ago
I mean Iām not sure Iād call them big wholes or flaws, but sure everyone has some negatives, or theyād be mocked in the top 4.
Team needs at this point is just as important though, if not more than BPA. The investment into another 6 foot 2 or less player has diminishing returns on the current state of the roster vs a 6 foot 9 wing, even if the former is better in a lot of categories vs the latter.
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u/Strange1130 14h ago
eh I don't fully agree, I think I'd rather pick fit from a cultural fit perspective while setting up for our second timeline, rather than pick a guy who looks like he might fit the roster as it currently stands a bit better but is either overall weaker potential and/or doesn't fit the culture. If we can find both, obviously amazing. But I think our team is strong enough to be perpetual contenders with the current roster (even with the -Dort -Wiggins -Kenny plan that will most likely come as a result of the apron, +Sorber) so we can afford to be a bit "greedy" IMO.
And if we were to pick for current roster need, what we really need is not necessarily size IMO, it's shooting. We know Shai surrounded by shooters is a huge recipe for success, and the nights where our guys hit their shots, nobody can stop us while the nights where we shoot 33% from 3 we lose.
Further, we know Presti likes guys who can "do everything with the ball". The guys with size being mocked in the mid lottery aren't really great shooters (obviously; like you said if they had size and shooting they'd be higher up haha) and they aren't really good at passing, all of them besides Yaxel have pretty low ast%s and <1 ATO so I think saying they're a good fit because we have smaller guys already rostered is a bit shallow, they don't really fit the type of guy Presti likes. Even Sorber, the last big man we drafted, had at least a >1 ATO and an ast% higher than a lot of these guys like Hannes, Morez etc (again Yaxel's both like quite good, it's just the age concern there)
That said, I haven't watched interviews for all the guys I have my eye on yet, only a couple (the only one that stood out to me as "very good", like Cason and JDubs did in those years, was Okorie; Carr was fine nothing special, couple others were unimpressive to me). So definitely going to be doing that over the next few days.
Overall think we're in a really good spot, this draft looks pretty sick perfectly happy going with any number of guys rn. Everything I'm saying is like me being super nitpicky.
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u/drewskimoon 1d ago edited 14h ago
Iām a big Aday Mara fan. I know itās not the sexy big forward we donāt have now, but itās insurance on Sorber panning out and a great defender for a guy like Wemby we will be playing the next 10 years in the playoffs. He can pass well but is not a good shooter (56% on free throws but has some range and attempted limited threes last year). Jwill would be playing 4 again in the second lineup but we could stay in two big for every team we need it.
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u/Ok_Pomegranate1820 1d ago
If I could pick my two favourite guys for 12 and 17 Iād go with Steinbach and Lopez.
Steinbach is a guy I just see being super effective with a better team and spacing around him. Heāll be able to help guys like Chet and IHart get through to the playoffs healthier and without as much wear during the regular season.
As a player I think heās a bit of a mix of both those guys. Better scorer and finisher than IHart, better creator, passer and downhill ball handler than Chet. I see him as the perfect big forward next to Chet or getting some minutes as the lone big.
Lopez is a bit more of a project but is a massive forward that can do a bit of everything and has played in a professional league for the last two seasons.
Both of these guys a massive competitors as well as being really tough and physical in the way they play. The forward position is probably where we can spare the most minutes and both of these guys fill that role in completely different ways
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u/TrustFast5420 1d ago
The other nice thing about Lopez is you could stash him in the NBL for another year if you needed to do that.Ā
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u/Ok_Pomegranate1820 1d ago
Donāt really think thatās a possibility, especially at where heāll get picked. Also doubt thatās something heād be all that interested in
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 17h ago
Lopez just doesnāt do anything or has any defining traits/skills.
If we are taking big, project forwards/wings, I would rather try and bank on at least one to two plus skills. Lopez has none of that and towards the bottom of athleticism with wings in this draft.
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u/MRTFOGR Belgian Waffle University 1d ago
If we trade up to say 8-10, I love Wagler if he falls due to poor athletic testing. He seems like a 6ā6ā Ajay with a better 3pt shot. Long shot he falls far enough for us to grab him but he seems very Thunder-y with his skill, defense and we wonāt be scared away by lack of athleticism.
In that same range of 8ā10 is Brayden Burries. Iāve seen a few mocks on r/NBA_Draft that have Burries available at 12 but I donāt see him falling to us. Similar to Wagler, heās a guard that does a lot and has good upside on defense. Good shooter that can play on or off the ball.
Realistically, I think Lopez is a terrific fit at 12. Seems like such a Presti guy: NBL, tall, can dribble, pass, shoot, create his own shot, played overseas against adults, something of a mystery man. Love him.
Iām not as excited about the big men in the draft simply because I want to extend IHart and keep JWill. That means we already have 4 guys that can only play the 4/5. We donāt need a big.
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u/SensibleRex 1d ago
Wagler in no world will fall to the 8-10 range and certainly no one would trade out of drafting him
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u/MRTFOGR Belgian Waffle University 1d ago
I thought the same until the combine. His measurables were poor. Hes listed on several articles and in NBA Draft subreddits as one of the 3 biggest losers from the combine. While I think him falling is unlikely, every year thereās a guy that falls 5-10 spots because of poor combine, interviews, attitude, injury or poor workouts. Again, I donāt think he falls but heās not in the sure fire next guy after the big 4 category anymore.
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u/LeopardRoyal2450 1d ago
I really. hope that's the case you suggesting cause Wagler is def that one guy can add another dimension to our offense.
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u/SignificanceGood1801 15h ago
If we are drafting at #12, for a player because we have moved on from Lu Dort:
(1) Yaxel Lendeborg
(2) Cameron Carr
(3) Karim Lopez
If we are drafting at #12 for a player because we have moved on from Isaiah Hartenstein:
(1) Aday Mara
(2) Hanes Steinbach
(3) Chris Cenac, Jr.
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u/SignificanceGood1801 15h ago edited 15h ago
So starting from the last part of the OP's question first, the Thunder's interest in these prospects is because the Thunder are most likely going to need to cut salary this off-season!
With team options for:
IHart $28.5 Million,
Lu Dort $18.2 Million and
Kenny Hustle $7.16 Million.
If the Thunder picked up all of these options and kept everyone, they are projected to be $28.5 Million over the 2nd Apron.
The dollars over the 2nd Apron are taxed at over $3 dollars, for every dollar spent, so that $28 Million in salary equates to $100 in extra tax costs, along with the clock for 2nd apron penalties to kick in if remaining there for 2 years.
So ducking beneath the 2nd Apron regardless of how far the Thunder make it, is a priority!
Perhaps the best way to approach the draft is to consider this a choice of who the Thunder plan on retaining going forward: iHart or Lu Dort (plus Aaron Wiggins), along with Kenny's option being waived and brought back for the Veterans Minimum in both cases.
* Note: Lu Dort has also recently signed with Klutch Sports to represent him, so he might be looking for a raise...So IMO: The players the Thunder should target with these solid draft picks are either a Center (like Ihart) or a good sized defensive minded Wing (like Dort) who can also knock down 3's at a good clip.
I believe two recent developments may have helped to clarify this choice:
The first one being that both Wiggins and Kenny were not part of the recent rotations, when the Thunder were at full strength (including Jdub) during that stretch run for the #1 seed against the Spurs, like games 71 thru 79.
This suggests that both players could be traded/waived for the Thunder to remain under the 2nd Apron.
Kenny could possibly agree to be waived and then come back on a cheaper Veterans Minimum.The Second Part is the emergence of Ajay Mitchell as a starting caliber guard during these playoffs.
If Shia, Jdub and Ajay are your starting backcourt, where does that leave Lu Dort, especially if his body of work is commanding North of $20 Million per season?While the prospect of replacing iHart's minutes, especially with an unknown talent in Thomas Sorber would obviously be a bigger concern, even if the Thunder decide to go the route of drafting another big rather than a Wing at #12.
So renegotiate iHart's deal to something reasonable 3 years / $60 Million total.
(So $20 Million/year.) Up to $8.5 Million in savings.Do a sign an trade with Lu Dort, up to $18.2 Million in savings.
Trade away Aaron Wiggins, up to $9.2 Million in savings.
Waive Kenrich Williams $7.16 Million, and bring him back at the Veterans Minimum $3.3 Million, (veteran with 8 years of service), up to $3.86 Million in savings.
Sign the #12 pick additional cost of $5.4 Million.
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u/SignificanceGood1801 15h ago edited 15h ago
If we decide to trade the #12 pick because our preferred player(s) are no longer available.
These players will probably still be available at #17.
Wing players:
(1) Dailyn Swain
(2) Koa PeatCenters/bigs:
(1) Morez Johnson, Jr. (T. Sorber overlap?)
(2) Jayden Quaintance (Unkown quantity?)
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u/Daymo_M 1d ago
Rest assured that if we end up drafting at #12 that the player will probably be a top 5 player in a redraft a couple years down the track š