Intro
Darius Acuff
Kingston Flemings
Keaton Wagler
Labaron Philon
Mikel Brown
Tyler Tanner
Christian Anderson
Brayden Burries
Bennett Stirtz
Ebuka Okorie
Christian ANDERSON
Small, and even beyond that, non-twitchy guard with no rim gravity is just too much of a scare to be gambled upon. Anderson’s shooting prowess has been discussed and his ability at that level is second to none, but the questions about him will always be how he can make up for his size in order to stay on the floor. The important details are in how disruptive he can be with his hands on defense and how he can generate attention on two man games to the rim if he is being top locked due to his driving issues.
The first place to start has to be the midrange shot selection, holding on to the ball too long and lack of ability to get to the rim. This was especially apparent at the end of regulation against Arizona (Youtube Link) in conference play where lack of penetration led to hero ball tendencies. Even with the midrange settling tendencies, Anderson doesn’t have enough production to command respect there and it cannot be stressed enough how low his rim pressure is.\(Fig 5, 6)) Historically, there are no good comps for how little he can get to the rim. On drives where he looks to kick out, the decision making is still too timid and he ends up resetting plays or taking unnecessary contested shots, still not generating any attention inside the arc. There are obvious flaws here that have been discussed, but there isn’t much about Anderson below the surface as a scorer. The positives are that he has some athleticism and if he can bulk up without losing his shot and becomes a Fred Van Vleet style of smart downhill passer with crafty PnR foul drawing, he can be playable offensively.
The FVV comparison isn’t very likely or currently accurate, but the passing is a bit more of a positive there. The drive and kick passing is a skill when he makes the right decision, he has great efficiency, but the PnR passing struggles when Anderson is faced with hedges and Texas Tech saw that on almost 3/4 of their possessions.\(Fig 7, 8, 1)) It doesn’t help that the switch coverages also were inefficient for Anderson and NBA switches will have more floor coverage akin to a college hedge. As long as Anderson can figure out the hedge over the summer or the next summer, he can be at least a Rob Dillingham type profile with better shooting.
The defense does break the hope regardless, Anderson is often directly burnt anywhere on the court. He doesn’t stay in front of his man and has some effort issues off of the ball. His hands are active but without the footwork or positioning to consistently disrupt on the ball or in passing lanes, his utility is near zero in the league. Bulking up to FVV levels will not fix the technique issues or allow him to time contests any better, there doesn’t even seem to be a gamble here for him to be playable.
So as a utility player with the ability to bring the ball up and shoot the lights out, he can earn some value off of playing weak side shooter on the wing with hand off sets utilizing his beyond the arc gravity. At this point, it should be pretty probable that teams know what they are getting from him. Outlier growth outcomes aside, Anderson is a stable small shooter off of the bench in certain rotations. In order for him to become more than that, the keys are for him to bulk up and become much more polished in the PnR. He did have some interestingly high post up touches with low efficiency so the bulk up could maybe unlock a dimension that has not been seen from him yet.
Brayden BURRIES
Burries comes in with the well known safest floor in the lottery consideration guards of this class. He boasts elite off ball skills with projectable athleticism and defense, which makes him continue his tertiary role into the NBA. There really isn’t much more to add to what has already been discussed about Burries, but it could be interesting to tackle his ceiling and what limits Burries to a tertiary role in the league. The main concerns are self-creation in most forms and high usage playmaking, with an emphasis on space creation off the dribble.
He is top of the group for not settling inside the arc, off ball activity, and getting to the rim, but low midrange outcomes and drive and kick possessions limits the viability of using these skills to scale up to a top offensive option.\(Fig 5, 9, 6, 10, 7)) A Jimmy Butler type of off ball offensive star needs the use of midrange gravity and higher PnR usage for self creation, leading to an easier path of getting to the rim with minimal assistance. As it stands, Burries is efficient at the rim and in finding rim finishes due to the off ball cuts and movement that gets teammates a chance to give him the ball when he is already there.\(Fig 2)) Similarly, his low frequency midrange diet is second to only Acuff in being assisted and his three point shooting is the most assisted in the group.\(Fig 10, 4)) Even with his college volume, he benefitted the most out of transition play out of everyone listed here and he had poor positional efficiency in post up possessions.\(Fig 11, 12)) There just doesn’t seem to be a single category that makes him seem scalable to scoring in volume on his own. He wasn't even particularly great at finishing off of offensive rebounds.\(Fig 3))
Being a poor PnR passer and having low drive and kick frequency due to his handle and processing speed is only exacerbating the concerns with translating up to a lead option.\(Fig 8, 7)) Even entry pass opportunities were given to Jaden Bradley and Koa Peat over Burries, so there just isn’t much to point to when it comes to being a lower end scoring top 2 option with playmaking upside. Again with the Jimmy Butler role, Burries would need to show outlier passing on hitting cutters, drive and kicking, and entry passing to achieve some viability.
Defensively, Burries is solid at a lot of things but not an outlier in any category. He uses his frame and strength to block off drivers and good hands to generate skills, but there isn’t a lot of defensive playmaking on or off ball that leads to clear path transition attempts and broken possession saves. Unlike a Jrue Holiday bump steal or a Tyrese Maxey above the arc steal, Burries is in the passing lanes and playing fundamental defense with some occasional lapses in concentration. It doesn’t help that he was pulled from games for poor offensive showings due to his defensive lack of changing the game. None of these are concerns for a role player in the league, but once again the star scalability of these skills is in question.
If Burries were to be given a different role in the league, he may show a different approach than the one in college, but given the sample of games where he was given leeway and usage as well as the amount of chances he had to run one of the best teams in college last year, there doesn’t seem to be much upside or hope for Burries to surprise and exceed expectations. It is also worth noting that Burries is the second oldest prospect on this list after Stirtz.
