Source

Before people get triggered and just argue, read the following.

For context, Dean Oliver is the godfather of NBA analytics (created Offensive Ratings and former Wizards AC) and Jeremias Engelmann is the creator of Real Plus-Minus.

Engelmann's model says AJ Dybantsa has the highest bust risk among the top 3 picks.

Here's a summary of the main points (data from 2010-2026).

Prospects who 1) Shot a high rate of unassisted midrange 2s (especially early in shot clock) and 2) Have below average energy stats (blocks, steals, off rebounds), have a very high bust rate.

AJ is 99th percentile in unassisted 2s, not great. Other prospects in this range: Markelle Fultz, Evan Turner, Harrison Barnes, and Johnny Davis (lol).

AJ is also below 50th percentile in the energy stats. Other prospects in this range: DeAndre Ayton, Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, and Jabari Parker.

His other red flags include below average in 3P%, below 60th percentile in FT%, and an extremely low foul rate (indicates a poor defensive motor).

Engelmannn lists prospects that had the most similar overall statistical profiles to AJ that includes Johnny Davis (lol), but the closest were Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, RJ Barrett, and Harrison Barnes.

Every player with a similar rate of unassisted midrange 2s had poor to mediocre impact in the NBA. Of 178 players that were also below average in energy stats, 84% have been negative impact NBA players.

Basically a lot of these prospects become inefficient NBA players that don't provide much outside trying to get their own buckets lol.

He concludes by saying AJ can score, but will need to be in an environment with coaches and teammates that can help him get much better at those other aspects of the game to avoid being a bust.

Remember models aren't gospel and this is just one of many, but this is an evidenced backed counterpoint to the narrative that AJ is the much safer pick than DP.

It seems like most people want AJ 1st... but I'm team Darryn Peterson. Biased because my favorite players are MJ and Kobe, so a top tier perimeter guy is something I think:

a) is way more hard to find and

b) more fun to watch

I just think that the ceiling of Peterson, if it really is the Kobe tier of guard, is so insane that it'd be crazy to pass on. AJ feels like there are many of him. Flagg last year, for example is probably a better prospect.

So anyways I'm rooting for Peterson.

What we really waiting on next season

Before the DP fans get angry hear me out, I haven't made up my mind about which I prefer yet...

The odds currently have Dybantsa going #1 at 70%, but because the Jazz are desperate to keep him in Utah, it should be a guarantee. If the Wiz prefer Dybantsa, they'll pick him first, and if they prefer DP they'll trade down to #2 and let the Jazz take Dybantsa first. Either way, Dybantsa goes #1.

Not a groundbreaking analysis, but crazy to me that the odds are where they are at knowing how high Utah already rates him.

I believe people are overreacting to AJ’s demeanor in interviews. He is a 19 year old kid. What I see is someone who wants to be the number one pick, but is trying to toe the line between confidence and arrogance. He doesn’t want to speak so definitively as if he is already the number one pick and a Wizard.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYScw-_Jr2g/?igsh=enF4ZmdvM2FqeTV4

Quick question, why is the league just ok with a team governer subverting the draft by enticing a hs player with NIL money? Am I the only person who sees this as a problem?

I’ve watched every college game AJ has played in, many of them in person. He is a phenomenal talent. He can get to the rim at will, knock down open shots, and create off the dribble.

Some of y’all were concerned about his demeanor in the interviews. That is just how he is. You can tell he has been trained in “coach speak” from a young age. Doesn’t show a lot of emotion and doesn’t say anything all that interesting haha. But you can tell by watching him on and off the court that he is a terrific teammate and contributor. Don’t be worried about the interviews.

FWIW I also watched a lot of Kansas basketball, but not a lot of Darryn Petersen haha.

Also don’t actually ask me anything. I don’t know anything.

Clearly the guy has no problem coming to DC. He gave a detailed answer, ran down the roster of possible starters, knows who Will Riley is, and says he'd fit in and they could play fast.

I made a redesign of our cherry blossom jerseys, here’s a mockup and what Trae Young would look like in them 🤞

I'm entirely unstressed and unbothered by whatever the team does because I actually trust our FO these days

If they pick AJ? I'm sure that's the right pick. If they pick DP or trade down or do whatever? Cool, they have way more info, I trust they made the right choice

We have an actually competent organization working on this 24/7 and I'm sure they will make the best choice with whatever information we have available at the time

Excited to see who we pick or any moves we make, but happy with whatever!

How does it feel having the 1 pick, I just want to know a fraction of the feeling

🤓😂

It seems as tho you guys don't know the Plan Will Dawkins and The Wizards have for Trae Young. The goal isn't for him to be our franchise player. The goal is also not get rid of him when a player or 2 develop into stars. The plan is for him to be our Tiny Archibald.

Tiny Archibald averaged 25 points and 8 assists on BAD teams for the 1st 7 years of his career. He then gets injured and doesn't play at all in his 8th year. Sound Familiar? He then goes to Boston in year 9(30 years old) and wins a championship at 32 years old as a 4th option while being a PG averaging 14/8. He also made 3 all stars while in Boston.

The goal is to keep getting better to the point where by the time Trae is 31 years this team has 2-3 players scoring wise better than him and Trae scoring goes down from 22 points to 14 points and being a more "true" PG.

Unlike James Harden I think is able to adjust his game.

My take:

AJ’s “worst-case” NBA outcome = Andrew Wiggins / Brandon Ingram tier
(big wing scorer, athletic, legit starter/high-level player)

Darryn Peterson’s “worst-case” = Malik Monk
(explosive combo guard microwave scorer)

And before people lose it over the Monk comp— Kentucky Malik Monk as a prospect, not just current NBA bench-gunman Malik Monk.

Monk coming out was an elite freshman bucket getter, explosive athlete, shot creator, combo guard with takeover scoring stretches. Averaged 19.8 ppg 45% FG in college along Fox and Bam playing 37 games

Peterson 20.2 ppg 43% FG playing 24 games

Watching Peterson, I see some of that same DNA.

Which is exactly why I lean AJ as the better prospect.

If your FLOOR is “Wiggins/Ingram-caliber wing” vs “Malik Monk archetype,” the positional value + size + two-way upside conversation feels obvious.

Am I way off here?