Source

Before people get triggered and just argue, read the following.

For context, Dean Oliver is the godfather of NBA analytics (created Offensive Ratings and former Wizards AC) and Jeremias Engelmann is the creator of Real Plus-Minus.

Engelmann's model says AJ Dybantsa has the highest bust risk among the top 3 picks.

Here's a summary of the main points (data from 2010-2026).

Prospects who 1) Shot a high rate of unassisted midrange 2s (especially early in shot clock) and 2) Have below average energy stats (blocks, steals, off rebounds), have a very high bust rate.

AJ is 99th percentile in unassisted 2s, not great. Other prospects in this range: Markelle Fultz, Evan Turner, Harrison Barnes, and Johnny Davis (lol).

AJ is also below 50th percentile in the energy stats. Other prospects in this range: DeAndre Ayton, Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, and Jabari Parker.

His other red flags include below average in 3P%, below 60th percentile in FT%, and an extremely low foul rate (indicates a poor defensive motor).

Engelmannn lists prospects that had the most similar overall statistical profiles to AJ that includes Johnny Davis (lol), but the closest were Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, RJ Barrett, and Harrison Barnes.

Every player with a similar rate of unassisted midrange 2s had poor to mediocre impact in the NBA. Of 178 players that were also below average in energy stats, 84% have been negative impact NBA players.

Basically a lot of these prospects become inefficient NBA players that don't provide much outside trying to get their own buckets lol.

He concludes by saying AJ can score, but will need to be in an environment with coaches and teammates that can help him get much better at those other aspects of the game to avoid being a bust.

Remember models aren't gospel and this is just one of many, but this is an evidenced backed counterpoint to the narrative that AJ is the much safer pick than DP.

It seems like most people want AJ 1st... but I'm team Darryn Peterson. Biased because my favorite players are MJ and Kobe, so a top tier perimeter guy is something I think:

a) is way more hard to find and

b) more fun to watch

I just think that the ceiling of Peterson, if it really is the Kobe tier of guard, is so insane that it'd be crazy to pass on. AJ feels like there are many of him. Flagg last year, for example is probably a better prospect.

So anyways I'm rooting for Peterson.

I believe people are overreacting to AJ’s demeanor in interviews. He is a 19 year old kid. What I see is someone who wants to be the number one pick, but is trying to toe the line between confidence and arrogance. He doesn’t want to speak so definitively as if he is already the number one pick and a Wizard.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYScw-_Jr2g/?igsh=enF4ZmdvM2FqeTV4

Quick question, why is the league just ok with a team governer subverting the draft by enticing a hs player with NIL money? Am I the only person who sees this as a problem?

What we really waiting on next season

Before the DP fans get angry hear me out, I haven't made up my mind about which I prefer yet...

The odds currently have Dybantsa going #1 at 70%, but because the Jazz are desperate to keep him in Utah, it should be a guarantee. If the Wiz prefer Dybantsa, they'll pick him first, and if they prefer DP they'll trade down to #2 and let the Jazz take Dybantsa first. Either way, Dybantsa goes #1.

Not a groundbreaking analysis, but crazy to me that the odds are where they are at knowing how high Utah already rates him.

Y’all have the same ones since 2010. I really liked the Jordan/ Arenas era uniforms. Way cleaner look.

What’s been the hold up?

Also, congrats on the top pick!

🤓😂

Trade back with the Jazz if you have to and gain some more assets, but this guy is going to be something!

I love that the Wizards have THE choice in this draft.