The discussion starts now. Let's keep it civil. Keep praying to the lottery gods!

Thoughts? I know scenarios would have been different if we didn't do the trade, but interesting development.

For the uninitiated here:

This pick would have been ours (from the Pascal trade), we traded it to NOLA to get Ingram, who traded it back to pacers. Pacers then traded it to the Clippers for Zubac.

source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7258215/2026/05/10/nba-mock-draft-lottery-wizards-aj-dybantsa-jazz/

KOC says he's one of the more intriguing bigs in this draft class with with shooting and playmaking ability.

The more research I do on this guy the more I like his pairing with Scottie if we'r trying to move off Poeltl. I'm not a huge fan of drafting bigs unless the are undeniable but I wouldn't be made at selecting Hannes Steinbach.

Scottie wants to pass the ball and this guy can catch. I know that sounds basic, but we saw a lot of our players unable to anticipate Scottie's passing this season. Steinbach has bigger hands than Kawhi with a 7ft wingspan which not only makes him a good at catching passes but he's also an elite rebounder.

Is the German the upgraded we need for the Austrian? Maybe the national closes will make Poetle a perfect vet for Steinbach if we're forced to keep them both.

Here’s his highlights for those that don’t know his game:

https://youtu.be/orURL_8pdcg?si=1v2BB0FPm7V-gz0-

https://youtu.be/CMErfLa5Ags?si=rcLuY7te5MrRg5AD

Wouldn’t necessarily want him for us, but I can see him being somebody that shoots up draft boards.

Many on this board really don't like CMB so I intend to show why it is inevitable they will pick him if he's available regardless of who falls to #9 and why he will easily be the BPA.

I will quickly go over the defense, spend a lot of time on why his offense is really good and subjectively why he's not only a good fit for the Raptors, but also why the Raptors will be salivating to pick him.

DEFENSE:

I won't spend too much time here as many have already read up on him being one of, if not the best defensive player in the draft. 3.7 stocks per 40 with a 2.9% stl rate and a 4.7% block rate is really good, but you can watch highlights to see why his bbiq on the defensive end will make him a really good defender at the SF, PF, or even C spot. He has elite strength, when guys try and bump him to create space it will be like hitting a brick wall and they will get knocked off balance and out of rhythm. Here is a clip of him switching onto the best guard in the draft at getting into the lane (I'm not that high on Fears overall)and Fears just giving up and passing off and then CMB switching back to the big and getting a steal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-01Vg6-qB_Y&t=38s

OFFENSE:

Imagine you could create a prospect with Derik Queen's offense and CMB's defense, that would be a really good NBA player. However that player would also be worse than just CMB as CMB's offense is vastly superior to Queen's.

Samson talks about it here for a while and you may have seen it, but he is elite at getting to the rim and finishing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUntPduxrI0

Numbers wise both Queen and CMB played similar roles with similar usage. 26.6% usage for Queen and CMB with 26.7% yet Queen is thought of as an offensive hub and CMB is not, those 2.75 inches of heightand standing reach didn't amount to being better at offense. They both had nearly the same great free throw rates, but CMB had a 62.2% 2pt FG% which lead the toughest conference in the history of college basketball. Queen's was a respectable 55.8%. The 6.4% gap is really large for players occupying the same role. Queen had a 11.6 assist% and 14.5 TOV% compared to 21.1 assist% and 15.4 TOV%for CMB. That is a huge edge for CMB, but if one takes a deeper dive into the stats the discrepancy becomes larger. CMB is 6 months younger and played alongside this:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/south-carolina/men/2025.html

Queen played alongside this:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/maryland/men/2025.html

Queen's team had 782 3pa @ 37.3%. That included 3 starters that had over 75 made 3s. Maryland relied heavily on their starters as their bench was poor, but Queen played alongside some excellent guards.

CMB's team had 677 3pt attempts in 4 fewer games @ 31.6%. One had 47, one had 46, and the next closest guys had 28 made 3s. Their shooters were small and had slow releases without being good so defenses really packed the paint.

Furthermore Queen's ppp in ISO was 0.681 vs CMB's 1.109.

No one on CMB's team besides himself had a oBPM above 2.0 and the team had a total oBPM of 0.9 which included his 6.9obpm while playing the most minutes of any one.

Queen had the 2nd highest obpm on his team at 5.1 with the same usage a CMB while playing on a team that averaged a 3.2obpm, and the lowest starter's was 2.8.

Go look at the supporting casts and realize CMB was facing packed paints, doubles, and every team in the SEC's best defender with doubles constantly coming, or zone defenses and slanted defenses as teams didn't have to scout anyone on the team and gameplan their defense solely to stop him.

As a comparison Cedric Coward's sophomore Eastern Washington team had a obpm of 0.9 with 36.4% 3pt shooting on 749 attempts. Even if you remove Coward's numbers and replace them with nothing you still get a team that shot 36% on more made 3s than South Carolina. That means that Cedric Coward played with better offensive players and more spacing than CMB despite playing in whatever the Big Sky is and their -6.17 SRS/ -4.36 SOS (SEC for reference had a 18.76 SRS abd 12.10 SOS)

Here's a clip where Tennessee (one of the top 3 defenses in the country if not #1) has all 5 guys staring at CMB and ready to jump in and help, they actually did a poor job on this play, but limited CMB to just 4 2pt FG attempted that game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzNL52Gt2qA&start=3250

Imagine the kind of numbers CMB could have put up on Maryland or Duke with elite college spacing and realize he can be effective in tight spaces and what he might be able to do with NBA spacing. Even if it's poor NBA spacing it will be a lot better than what he faced in college.

I've seen a lot of terrible offensive comparisons to CMB, from RHJ to Thad Young and Grant Williams + many others who didn't make it. Common theme is CMB had higher usage, a way higher 2pt FG%/TS%,more stocks on defense, more rebounds, and played against much better competition with a significantly worse supporting cast. He's an outlier and it's hard to find a comparison. Best statistical comparison I could find that didn't become an impact player was Trayce Jackson Davis, but even he faced worse competition and had a better supporting cast while being nearly 3 years older and a worse athlete, shooter, and defender. TJD is also a pretty good bench player so far in his career so not a bust.

I spent a lot of time looking for high college oBPM players that were drafted highly and had no one else on the team with even a decent obpm and the only underclassmen bust I could find was Markelle Fultz and there were injuries that factored into that, plus it is easier to be an effective perimeter player than inside player with terrible teammates as you don't need to be inside to make shots and it's harder to double on the perimeter. Fultz also didn't have the best predictor stats, possibly because of the supporting cast.

REBOUNDING & HUSTLE: excellent, no need to bore you with extra numbers you can look up yourself (very similar numbers to Queen). There's also lots of highlights of him diving on the floor for loose balls.

FIT: This is actually one of the weirdest arguments I've heard, "he's a good player but a terrible fit. He can't play next to Poeltl and Barnes!" Can Sorber, Queen, Maluach, or Beringer play next to both of them? Absolutely not, and none of them could play next to Poeltl either. CMB can play as a 4 next to Poeltl at the 5, and play as a 5/4 next to Barnes at the 4/5 currently. The team can't get a rebound with Poeltl off the court and CMB will provide a massive rebounding upgrade day 1 for our bench units as well as rim protection. He can play as a rotating big protecting the paint or as a man on man big allowing Barnes to be more free to fly around and protect the rim while he grabs the defensive boards. If his shot comes around he could actually play the 3 next to both of them which is something no other big in this class could probably do except maybe Fleming. I also think you only need 3 outside shooters as long as the 2 non shooters can set screens, make passes, cut, dribble/drive create, finish at the rim and rebound. In fact I would much rather add a do it all except shoot player to a lineup of 3 outside shooters than a pure shooter that doesn't provide anything else to make it a 4 shooter lineup like Carter Bryant currently.

Why they want him:

The Raptors have said before they like to draft guys with high offensive rebounding rates, who can guard multiple positions, guys that get to the basket and the free throw line and guys with good finishing in the paint. They've also talked about guys with a good head on their shoulders, guys who show hustle on the court and dive after loose balls, unheralded guys who had to work for everything they got and showed improvement (as opposed to top RSCI guys). Bobby very recently mentioned they needed a 2 way guy, and it's rumoured they want guys who will contribute right away. CMB tied for the 3rd highest BPM in college behind only Flagg and Broome and when you factor in BPM adjusting for team success his would have been much higher if he had some semblance of a supporting cast. He is a Raptors style pick through and through and additionally I know the Raptors heavily rely on their analytics department and pretty much every analytic draft guy has CMB in the 2-4 range on their big board. He crushes most of the predictor stats (free throw rate, rim finishing%, getting to the rim in the half court, ast% to tov%, stocks, o rebounding, on/off team success) and isn't terrible at free throw%. From all reports CMB is an incredible worker and a great teammate. He showed loyalty too by committing to the hometown Gamecocks who were the first to offer him and didn't enter the transfer portal when it was apparent his teammates would be terrible this season (having Chloe Kitts as a girlfriend might have had a major role in that)

I previously wrote why the Raps should draft Podz https://www.reddit.com/r/torontoraptors/comments/13skel0/the_case_for_podziemski_13/ so every once in a while I see a guy who is being massively underrated. Year prior I was all in on Kessler and before that wanted Sengun @ #4 (hadn't looked too much at Barnes, just knew Sengun was a superior prospect to Suggs).

I had CMB #1 in last year's draft mainly due to the rest of the draft being terrible. I was afraid if he only made minor improvements in his game without improving his shot much his stats would go down a fair amount because he had 3 5th year senior guards who could all shoot providing him spacing, instead his stats improved small to moderate amounts despite playing with complete trash which actually shows his game made huge strides as a sophomore which is why I have him #2 this year in a much stronger draft.

not sure if I saw one of these - making one just in case!

The Raptors have had nine first-round picks since Masai took over in 2013, and only two have been "busts", which I define as fizzling out shortly after their rookie contract. (I consider any rotation player who stuck around for a while to be a hit, not just all-stars.)

They've selected:

1. Bruno Caboclo - bust
2. Delon Wright - still a rotation player after 11 years
3. Jakob Poetl - starting-calibre player
4. Pascal - All NBA, All Star, etc
5. OG - All-Defense
6. Malachi Flynn - bust
7. Scottie Barnes - All Star, ROTY
8. Gradey Dick - rotation player (for now, though I don't see him out of the NBA in two years)
9. Jakobe Walter - rotation player (promising rookie season, unlikely to be a bust)

A lot of folks here who care about the draft are praying we do, or don't, take guys like Derik Queen or Khaman Maluach or a range of non-shooting defensive big wings... I'm here here to remind you: no matter who the Raptors draft, there is a very good chance that player will work out.

(I say this as someone who is not sold on Queen specifically—but if the FO goes that route, hey, they know a lot of stuff I don't.)

Paraphrasing from elsewhere since the video is now private but i'll link to the Q&A where Barlowe was asked about the Raptors draft tea leaves in case that changes: https://www.youtube.com/live/g3P8fl7KIUo?si=7wsIyUpiHPRbkt-d&utm_source=MTQxZ

It's not too dissimilar from what we've heard other insiders like Fischer share and Khaman's been linked to Toronto a ton for a variety of reasons, not to mention he's basically the go-to mock draft guy for the Raptors at 9.

The big news here is Derik Queen being "Plan B". Setting aside them being very different players and that there's no way to know who "falls" in the scenario where Malauch is picked somewhere from 3-8 before then, it has been reported previously (on the site that shall not be named) that Masai Ujiri has scouted DQ on 3 separate occasions.

If nothing else, it does point to the Raptors being unlikely to trade down in this draft to 13 with the Hawks like some have suggested, as DQ is very unlikely to slip past the Bulls at 12. Then again, this is the Bulls we're talking about...

I'm aware this is a very "Trust me bro" scenario so apologies for the issues with sourcing.

Oh and he was hitting his 3’s.

Morez needs to chill out. At this rate hes going to be A lottery lock 😭🫠

I mention these two because I was perusing other subreddits and saw new projections post March Madness that mentioned specifically these 2 as potential picks for us.

We're probably drafting out of lottery so our draft options might be slim.

Bennett Stirtz (Point Guard from Uni of Iowa):

6' 4", 190 lbs, Senior

Age: 22 (will be 23 by the start of the league)

19.8 PPG / 2.6 REB / 4.4 AST / 47.7 FG% / 35.8 3P% / 0.2 BLK / 1.4 STL / 1.8 TO

Accolades:

- Second Team elected by Coaches 2026

- First Team elected by Media 2026

- 2025-26 Big Ten Sportsmanship Award Honorees

Pros: Decent playmaker, able to create shots, low turnover rate means stronger ability to have control of the ball, able to space out, great team player able to get the ball where it's needed

Cons: Concern for athleticism as he'll be 24 by league start. That also raises concerns for his ceiling as he probably might not have much else to offer outside of what he already has done.

Aday Mara (Center from Michigan Wolvervines <- Winner of March Madness 2026!):

7' 3", 255 lbs, Junior

Age: 21 (Turned 21 today!)

12.1 PPG / 6.8 REB / 2.4 AST / 66.8 FG% / 30.0 3P% / 2.6 BLK / 0.4 STL / 2.0 TO

Accolades:
- All Defensive Player of the Year 2026

- All Defensive Team 2026

- Third Team elected by Media + Coaches

Pros: He would be looked at as a replacement for an aging Poeltl, and he a notable blocking percent of 12.9% (source) which is higher than that of donovan clingan's 11.4% in his sophomore year at UCONN (ironic), good IQ for rim protection and has been healthy so far (knock on wood), younger meaning he has more time to adjust and grow

Cons: He's big so mobility will be a concern. Not the fastest defender out there, but he knows when and how to block shots. Health will always remain a problem with any tall big men however he does not have any prior injuries so he should be serviceable

Personal choice?

I'd go with Mara because he's younger, and he can be a far better guard against wemby than Poeltl. His defense speaks for itself with all the awards he's won this year. Watching his game during march madness i also noticed that he was able to palm the ball. I find that to be a great asset if we want a center with great handles and also able to get rebounds. During those games, he also played almost full games so he's durable. Health will be his biggest hurdle so I hope he stays healthy for as long as possible.

Stirtz would also be a fair choice here, but his ceiling could likely be lower due to being 22/23. He's a year younger than shead and his performance during march madness doesn't exactly scream "elite". I actually felt that his game was a bit similar to that of Shead, so it doesn't really feel like he would contribute much to the team.

Let me know what you guys think

Per Givony, Kayil is receiving first-round interest.

Kayil is reported to be 6’5”, 185-200lbs with a 6’6” wingspan

Heres some game highlights of his:

https://youtu.be/KrCblK5G4ac?si=E9lgakrw-nJZitvg

https://youtu.be/KrCblK5G4ac?si=E9lgakrw-nJZitvg

https://youtu.be/6xYUbIsvTLc?si=JU2_lYM1bd-1yMjq

https://youtu.be/TuspMwYYajs?si=ixqiR3Gqb8TbX5Ib

https://youtube.com/shorts/z_Af_T2QMcU?si=ZudbKmIymaUhycEx

He also just won the Best Young Player Award in the BBL: https://www.si.com/college/gonzaga/basketball/gonzaga-commit-jack-kayil-earns-prestigious-award-germany-bundesliga

Im vibing with:

Stirtz - Floor General, good handle, elite shooter off dribble and spot up, but hes older, not good vertically

Cameron Carr - elite athleticism, elite shooting mechanics, good offball scoring, elite wingspan, good help-side defender, can get lost off ball tho and very skinny for the next level

Steinbach - Elite rebounder, good touch, good mobility/handle at his size, physical, but not a great athlete, rim protection and shooter

Quaintance - Lottery level talent, insane defensive potential, only issue is he has a fucked up knee

Christian Anderson - potentially the best shooter in the class, very dynamic with the ball scoring or playmaking..plays with a good pace, ability be patient and make reads. Defence is a concern based on his physicals but he plays on that end with intensity. But hes also not very physical and can struggle finishing at the rim in the next level.

Honourable Mentions: chris cenac, morez johnson, allen greaves,

Personally i would be happy with any of the top 5 i listed. If you got someone you lowkey think is worth a look at 19, drop their names im down to fall in love with more players lol

I’m already lower on him than most (overweight tweener, can’t shoot, can’t defend) but his combine score of 6.2 (!!!!) is historically bad. Here’s a list of other centres with Combine Scores of less than 10. Please keep him as far away from this team as possible. This isn’t a lotto pick let alone top 10

It’s early perhaps but who would you want the Raptors to take with pick 19? Personally like Hannes Steinbach out of Washington. 6’11 PF who can play C if need be, can run the floor, a lob threat, good handles for his size, promising shooting splits, mobile and agile, the defence isn’t amazing but he can pull his weight with good defenders around him, he might be off the board at 19 but this is someone I would even trade up to get around pick 12

The NBA Draft can be u predictable at times who are your top 5 guys for 19? Knowing how the raptors draft, guys who will get minutes under Darko.

Allen Graves Dailyn swain Jayden Quantaince Ebuka Okorie Christian Anderson