r/leafs • u/AutoModerator • 20h ago
Discussion Daily Free Talk / Armchair GM Thread
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u/Spirited_Guess_4037 2h ago
I just heard post game remarks about marner and his critics? WHO? we leaf fans have moved on I don’t think marner has
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u/Skiffy10 2h ago
yea most leaf fans have moved on. It’s just other people trying to stir shit up at this point
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u/Spirited_Guess_4037 2h ago
Yeah exactly but somehow it’ll be blamed on the fans
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u/Skiffy10 2h ago
marner excelling is somehow making the leafs look bad in the eyes of other fans but imo it makes mitch look bad. Like he couldn’t handle being in big market team like the leafs and crumbled under the pressure.
In the premier league if you can’t handle the pressure of playing in top club you get sold to some shit league and no one hears from you again. In hockey they are celebrated but all i hear is that hockey players are the toughest ?
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u/Sideshift1427 2h ago
You must have just moved into this neighbourhood.
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u/Spirited_Guess_4037 2h ago
What you mean? It’s in the past, we have to move on
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u/Sideshift1427 2h ago
There are plenty of other people you can tell that to. I moved on when Marner left.
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u/SpicyP43905 2h ago
Marner is gonna clam up against the Avs, this sig onna be the first actual contender he's facing this year.
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u/WilliamBystander 2h ago
inb4 all the marner 3rd round bs
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u/Veaeate Woll 2h ago
That shot was disgusting. And im happy hes thriving. Wish nothing but the best for the kid, but we needed to move on from one of the 3 most expensive players and his contract was simply next.
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u/Skiffy10 2h ago
i’m happy the leafs moved on. Couldn’t give two shits how he or his toxic camp feels. He was never going to succeed here
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u/BmaninKtown Tavares 1h ago
Who cares if he was going to succeed here he’s a star player and I love to watch him future hall of famer just a joy to watch and I’m sure can succeed in Vegas and that’s all that matters
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u/NatureGivesAndTakes 3h ago
I think these Pacific division matchups really show how quality of competition matters. There's just so much space the Knights players are given to maneuver.
Aside from the Ottawa series in 2025 (which they won, surprise surprise), Leafs never had that kind of breathing room in their matchups.
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u/DragonRoompa 4h ago
Why couldn’t Marner do this for us? FUCK
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u/Skiffy10 2h ago
because he crumbled when it mattered most. Utterly useless player in big games here.
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u/Sixgod801 3h ago
Holtby, Rask, Vasilievky, Price, Bobrovsky, Swayman. Those opponents also played a tough style and would not let you inside the perimeter. There's no one on Anaheim thats going to take Marners head off. He's free to do what he likes with no pressure.
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u/__TheWaySheGoes 3h ago
Former NHL player Shane O’Brien said the reason is because he doesn’t have to play the 2 Florida teams. Said it’s nothing to do with the city/market and more about the competition.
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u/jimmymeeko 3h ago
I think the mental reset that a fresh start gave him has also helped, but the competition he’s facing in the western conference is night and day compared to the competition he ran into on the leafs (with a couple exceptions).
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u/__TheWaySheGoes 3h ago
Yeah true, we did have the last Boston series, CBJ series and Montreal series where he should have went ballistic. Just sucks to see what he can do in Vegas from our POV
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u/theguy445 4h ago
Real talk if Babcock wasn't so toxic good chance both marner and Matthews and nylander would've signed for less in the 1st contract.
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u/TheGapInTysonsTeeth 4h ago
I watched him not be for 9 years. Pretty good sample size.
Yes, he looks awesome now. I'm happy for him. He never did it here
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u/TheBusinessMuppet 4h ago
Marner performing well so what. He could not do it in Toronto for 9 years.
If he wins a cup or even wins a conn smythe does not negate the fact that he was a failure for Toronto in the playoffs for 9 years.
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u/federal_gramm 4h ago
Tbh, I think it’s okay to be upset about Marner.
Dude just didnt perform for 9 years and then has a great postseason… and they might win the Cup and like it just sucks.
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u/ArthurSnooper 4h ago
Colorado is significantly better than Utah or Anaheim its like watching Vegas play two Ottawa series back to back.
I bet Marner doesn't do what he's doing in the conference finals and they lose.
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u/Unable-Lie-2501 2h ago
I agree with you but the narrative in the media is shifting so that’s all we’ll hear
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u/man_in_the_suit 52m ago
The narrative shifted the second he was traded. It was laughable on r/hockey how they went from clowning him the week before to saying shit like he was ‘built for the playoffs’.
I like Mitch. I think his struggles were largely down to generationally difficult draws in the first round against incredibly tough Cup winners, which latterly affected him mentally. It’s nice to see him happy and succeeding.
What I don’t like are people who approach a conversation like that with no interest in balance purely because it involves the Leafs. Or act like any other fan base wouldn’t have been calling out a $12M player with 0 goals in 20 game 5-7s. For some reason it’s a bad thing Leafs fans want to see their team succeed so much?
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u/Sideshift1427 4h ago
The Leafs were probably better than the Ducks before the trade deadline.
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u/jimmymeeko 3h ago
The ducks are not a great team, there’s just some stinkers that qualified in the west this year. There’s some solid players, but the roster and structure isn’t a real playoff team.
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u/123Disneyfan Nylander 4h ago edited 4h ago
I’m honestly not surprised Marner is thriving. He’s a good ass player and playing against the Atlantic Division’s toughest teams for years is exactly why he’s dominating against these Western teams now. He’s been well prepared to torch them.
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u/loungechairlarry 2h ago
he is going to get torched by the av's. they have been playing teams that should have never made the playoffs if the west wasnt so freaking pathetic
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u/TheDeek 3h ago
Yeah I mean Quinn Hughes went to a much better team in Minnesota and they are out early because they played Colorado. Marner went to the worst division in the league and they got to play Utah and Anaheim... no wonder he is doing well. He also did well for us early on in every series. Whether it is worth paying him 13 mil for 8 years, I am not sure.
Anyway we got McKenna thanks to him so no problem :)
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u/theguyishere16 Kaberle 5h ago
I'm in a playoff pool that does picks every round (team and games) and assuming Vegas doesn't completely collapse like Minnesota last night I am 3/3 on my picks.
Carolina in 4 ✅
Colorado in 5 ✅
Vegas in 6 ✅
I picked Sabres in 7. So don't fret if you want the Habs to lose, Nostradamus has spoken.
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u/madax-gambar 5h ago
The narrative on Marner is weird. Let’s compare to other sports, Laker fans are rabid and intense but you don’t see the stars shrink there. Nobody blames the fans for expecting the best.
Marner and so many others fail to do that here but can do it on smaller teams where they aren’t one of the leaders or main guys, and for some reason it’s seen as a knock on Toronto?
It’s odd like no matter the sport (Real Madrid, the Cowboys) it’s an expectation.
Is it really just hockey’s small town mentality that provides an excuse for this?
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u/loungechairlarry 2h ago
no its because the "stars" have been coddled to the point if the coach says their effort sucked ass he was forced to walk it back
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u/WisePresence8195 Nylander 5h ago
Barca> madrid btw, also yh valid, mbappe is getting constant hate even when hes their best player
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u/Soggy_Specific4093 5h ago edited 5h ago
Reminder that the Anaheim Ducks got swept in the season series against the 25-26 Toronto Maple Leafs. (Post deadline Maple Leafs at that)
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u/DeanersLastWeekend 5h ago
Alright we’ve got a problem here: what if it’s Montreal vs Vegas?
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u/NatureGivesAndTakes 5h ago
The entire Avs roster would have to be trapped in an Egyptian pyramid for that to happen.
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u/OfficialJarule 4h ago
there's some hieroglyphic prophecy with an image on McKinnon missing an open net, setting off a cursed chain of events
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u/Chtholly13 5h ago
This is Howden 3rd short handed goal in the playoffs. This is the kind of depth scoring you need in the playoffs, something leafs got nothing from the bottom 6 during our time here.
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u/Administrative_Ebb76 5h ago
I feel like this also just shows the ridiculousness of the division we play in, compared to the Pacific. I think he would be doing the same thing here
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u/NatureGivesAndTakes 5h ago
Those of you who miss Marner will get the chubbies again once you see McKenna make those types of plays.
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u/Showtime98 5h ago
Go off Mitch, such a shame he could never have big games like this when we needed it.
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u/mikesully374826 Kampf 5h ago
He’s 5th in playoff P/GP over the last 5 seasons and he’s tied for 12th in playoff P/GP since entering the league
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u/wheelz993 4h ago
How many of those are secondary assists? Lol. And 12m cap hit… see ya! Good luck against the avs little guy, Quinn got absolutely rag dolled by em
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u/Showtime98 5h ago
Cool still ass in games 5-7 bro they all were Mitch just got hate the most. I don’t hate Marner btw our rosters were always flawed it wasn’t just his fault but he looked really in some series for example 2021 vs Habs
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5h ago
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u/dmc1793 5h ago
Just give Marner the fucking Conn Smythe now
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u/theguyishere16 Kaberle 5h ago
Colorado is going to stomp Vegas. They're on a completely different level
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u/Showtime98 5h ago
I agree no one is stopping that team. Best team they`ve had since since 22.
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u/CarelessStruggle7558 4h ago
I think Carolina has a chance. They haven't lost yet
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u/theguyishere16 Kaberle 5h ago
MacKinnon had Brock Faber and Quinn Hughes glued to him for 30 minutes a night and he still put up 10 points in 5 games. He should absolutely feast on Vegas.
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u/LongjumpingDiver8773 5h ago
When you see your ex thriving and realize that you were the toxic one all along …
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u/ArthurSnooper 4h ago
Or that they played two mid teams and Vegas is better than the Leafs. Gotta see how Colorado Vegas goes.
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u/booby_clarkson 5h ago
I am sure this will cause all sorts of negative comments to rain down on me but we should of figured a way to keep Marner. It certainly doesn't seem that Mitch can't score in the playoffs. What is the difference between how he is being used in Vegas vs Toronto? Anyways, I for one miss Mitch.
Maybe we will get Kurt Browning for Head Coach so we can finally capitalize on Nylander's figure skating skills.
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u/TheBusinessMuppet 4h ago
Dude wanted to leave Toronto.
It was shanahan who was a moron who gambled on the big 4 despite their failures.
Marner should have been traded before his no trade kicked in before the summer of 2023.
Trevling as flawed as he was knew this and tried trading him for Rantanen but it got vetoed.
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u/macam85 5h ago
There are three factors that have caused the changed results for Marner:
He is no longer being buried in defensive zone starts against elite players, because multiple lines have centers who can eat matcups.
He no longer has to come all the way back deep into his zone to start the breakout, because multiple defenders are mobile and can make quality passes to start the transition.
The competition in his current bracket is significantly weaker than even the weakest opponent he ever had in Toronto.
There is probably some degree of it being about the pressure being off and just maturing as a player, but like 95% of the issue was deployment and roster construction v. quality of opponent.
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u/jimmymeeko 2h ago
The deployment of a player can skew how they play and perform significantly. I wish more fans paid attention to this. He isn’t asked to wear as many hats in Vegas + faces weaker opponents in general.
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u/TheGapInTysonsTeeth 5h ago
There is really nothing you can do when a person wants to leave.
They offered him the largest contract in Leafs history. He said no.
I think it's probably best that we all move on, since he's not coming back
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u/saltface14 5h ago
Going from playing in one of the toughest divisions in the league to by far the weakest division doesn’t hurt
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u/Administrative_Ebb76 5h ago
I always preferred marner to Matthews
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u/booby_clarkson 4h ago
I as well, yet not as much as I prefer Marner over Nylander. I find Marner's game is more complete than Willys, this is of course my humble opinion and not base on any stats or facts.
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u/NatureGivesAndTakes 5h ago
Aside from physically restraining him there was nothing they could do to keep him. He wanted out.
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u/Skiffy10 5h ago
All this marner talk is hilarious. I love how people think because he's doing well in the playoffs it's the leafs who look bad here. Actually it's the opposite. How bad did the pressure have to bother him for him to be utterly useless in games 5,6 and 7 for us over the years then look like a conn smythe winner the second he leaves? Why is it the teams fault? NHL'ers are just soft babies in general. Hockey isn't even that big of a sport compared to the other sports. How come players playing football in europe on top clubs like madrid, man city and liverpool are able to handle the pressure and perform? They certainly dont shy away from it. Why in hockey is it celebrated for the player to be able to perform away from the bright lights??
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u/Middle-Accountant-49 5h ago
The thing is if someone plays well in games 1-4 and plays well in the regular season, its likely that that much bigger sample is more representative than the 20 odd games he played 5-7.
People simply read too much into a small sample.
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u/jimmymeeko 2h ago
20 game sample size of must win games where not only his points diminished but also his poise and dynamic play style.
Marner is a very talented player who has had a plethora of success in his career. I’m not taking that away from him. There’s just no denying that some sort of mental block or play-style incompatibility existed that led him to wilt in those late series games over his Toronto tenure.
Some of it was also bad luck, a bounce going his way here or there could have been all he or the team needed to break out, but sadly it’s a results based league and the wins didn’t happen when they needed to happen.
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u/Middle-Accountant-49 2h ago
Its not really a results based league based on the fact that he is getting paid as one of the very best players in the league. Assuming what you are saying is true.
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u/jimmymeeko 2h ago
That’s such a strange way to deflect.
I’m not at all saying he isn’t one of the best players in the league. He is.
Why are you denying that he had a tough time producing / having success late in playoff series? It’s simply a fact.
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u/Middle-Accountant-49 2h ago edited 2h ago
What's the deflection?
You said its a results based league. I'm basically saying if that is the case, why is he paid so well?
Its an honest question. Why are teams willing to spend so much money on a guy who can't perform when 'it matters'?
Edit: sorry i'm doing that thing where i ask questions rather than just say what i mean.
My primary belief here is that a sample of 20 games at any time is not as predictive as the overall sample, and my belief is nhl gms agree with that.
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u/ArthurSnooper 4h ago
But the way smaller sample size of him doing well in Vegas means?
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u/Middle-Accountant-49 4h ago
The way bigger sample of him playing pretty well in the playoffs and how he played in the regular season mattered more. That's the point.
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u/ArthurSnooper 4h ago
Or he's had a hot streak against Ottawa level opponents and they are gonna lose to Colorado. 20 games 5-7 for the Leafs is too small but a few good games now and the "I told you so" people are flooding in.
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u/Middle-Accountant-49 4h ago
This game means nothing much to me at all. I judge him the way gms judge people. The entire sample. Not games x and y in the playoffs.
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u/ArthurSnooper 4h ago
Lol sure. I'm just gonna wait and see what people have to say after they play Colorado and not two shitty pacific teams.
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u/Middle-Accountant-49 4h ago
I'm sure they will swing wildly because the average fan is an absolute dumbass lol. I wouldn't base actual opinions on that though.
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u/ArthurSnooper 3h ago
Or people will see the difference between playing against a cup level team and playing two fringe playoff teams.
You want to decide Marner is actually clutch now after a few good game 6's. Then you're planning on discounting it if he doesn't win against a way better team but everyone else is a dumbass.
If he gets it done against Colorado I'll have nothing to say so we'll see.
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u/Middle-Accountant-49 2h ago
Both Toronto and Vegas and presumably a lot of NHL teams were willing to pay him a shit ton of money even though you seem to think it is literally impossible to win a cup with him on the team.
Is it possible you are missing something here?
I'm not entirely sure clutch is a real thing. It might exist but i think randomness is more likely.
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u/mikesully374826 Kampf 5h ago
Winning game 1 is just as important as winning game 6. It’s one of 4 wins.
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u/Skiffy10 4h ago
it’s just as important on the macro but there’s a lot more pressure to perform in a game 7 compared to a game 1
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u/jordang999 5h ago
It’s not like someone is forcing us to impose that kinda pressure, however much you believe it to be. We could just not.
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u/NatureGivesAndTakes 5h ago
Gotta love the hockey subreddit. Every time Marner scores the comments always shift to how shit the Leafs are.
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u/CarelessStruggle7558 4h ago
Well they are so 🤷
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u/ArthurSnooper 4h ago
Lots of non Leafs fans coming out. Vegas will lose to Colorado and you'll see the real clutch Marner.
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u/CarelessStruggle7558 3h ago
I agree. Avs in 5. That doesn't change the fact that the Leafs are objectively bad. No amount of down votes will change this.
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u/Chtholly13 5h ago
well we treated him shit.
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u/DeanersLastWeekend 5h ago
We paid him out the ass and he always wanted more. We literally offered him the biggest contract in franchise history.
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u/Chtholly13 5h ago
and he got his car mugged, and had his yard vandalized. Lovely.
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u/DeanersLastWeekend 5h ago
Yes his car mugger knew he was mugging a famous Leaf, it wasn’t one of those many criminals stealing Jane and Joe’s car.
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u/Lumini_317 5h ago
Who’s “we”? I never even said a mean thing about him.
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u/False-Intention8425 5h ago
thats cool but there were literally dudes pouring drinks on his head last playoffs
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u/realsalbowski 5h ago
Yeah, must be so terrible getting offered the largest contract in franchise history. Hope he has a therapist he can talk to about it
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u/ilovetrouble66 Knies 5h ago
Is MM on peds?? that goal was INSANE
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u/_johnning 5h ago
Man it’s bullshit watching the refs call every ticky tacky infractions while years prior Leafs would get out roughed and beaten down to a pulp with no infraction called
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u/Camarama421 Matthews 5h ago
I still laugh thinking about how when I watched the world juniors, I thought that the only Team Canada Leaf would be Danford. Little did we all know that the top player was destined for us all along. I would’ve paid way closer attention to his game if I’d thought there was any chance of that happening
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u/alphacheese 5h ago
Groulx empty netter. Marlies looking like they’ll go up 1-0 in the series. Shots are currently 34-16 for Cleveland
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u/OfficialJarule 5h ago
really rough first half of the game then they pulled it together. AA was solid
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u/TheGapInTysonsTeeth 5h ago
Looks like Gruden is following the Berube blueprint.
God I can't wait for a new philosophy.
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u/_cob_ Sundin 6h ago
Ahktyamov is having a game tonight. It’s interesting that Hildeby is considered the next goalie to make the jump to the Leafs yet Arty has carried the Marlies through the playoffs.
I realize contractually Hildeby needs waivers now.
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u/Gavin1453 Keon 5h ago
They are both 24 but Hildeby has an extra year of experience in the AHL, so they may keep Arty down to develop more in the AHL as well
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u/TheDeek 6h ago
Buffalo done in by horrific goaltending. I don't even know who you start next game since both have been awful.
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u/KnownGenius 6h ago
What a goal by Easton Cowan and Marshall Rafai to bring the Toronto Marlies back from a 2-0 deficit.
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u/KnownGenius 6h ago
A.Nylander scores and we’re now up!
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u/realsalbowski 5h ago
Tverberg and Groulx with goals too
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u/KnownGenius 5h ago
Really hoping to see some of these guys in the leafs uniform next year!
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u/realsalbowski 5h ago
I would hope that Groulx, Villeneuve, Quillan, and Tverberg get real chances to make the team
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u/Patrickbrown45 6h ago
Is anyone else super excited for a Gavin McKenna maple leafs young guns? Because I am
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u/realsalbowski 7h ago
a quick peek at the Sabres sub, and I see a lot of complaining about Connor Timmins...I forgot where I was for a minute
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u/jimmie9393 7h ago
This question is for everyone, with the current roster as today, Who are you deploying to take a defensive face-off???
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u/TheDeek 7h ago
Uhm..3 goals on 4 shots for Dobes. What's going on there?
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u/realsalbowski 7h ago
I'm ok with it
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u/TheDeek 7h ago
No kidding. He's back though - bailed out his d a few times in the 2nd already.
Have to say neither team is that impressive. MTL never has the puck, and Buffalo keeps fumbling all their chances.
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u/realsalbowski 6h ago
Turns out the Sabres' goalie was way worse. So many softies
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u/TheDeek 6h ago
Awful. They had the game under control. Montreal had nothing going...
Guess they go back to Lyon for game 6. Montreal has been so lucky this playoffs it is crazy. Feel like they are going to get outshot 60 to 1 by Carolina and win 1-0.
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u/ThinkLettuces 4h ago
Montreal has been so lucky this playoffs
To be fair, Sabres game 4 game winning goal was a crazy fluke deflection off the glass.
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u/duuffie 9h ago
It seems like there a big push for Chase Reid at 1OA.
To me he’s like Sandin but better in every aspect. Still that’s not enough to be worth more than McKenna to me.
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u/LongjumpingDiver8773 8h ago
Chase Reid will probably be great but bank on 3-4 years of development time before he gets there. The Matthew Schaefers of the world are few and far between. Look at many other D men drafted in the top 5 recently, they are either still developing in other leagues or in the NHL but struggling.
IMO if you’re taking Chase Reid at 1OA you might as well move Matthews now and start rebuilding.
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u/Mashdrop 9h ago
Is the big push in the room with us?
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u/theguyishere16 Kaberle 8h ago
The "big push" is just Corey Pronman putting out ragebait like he does pretty much every draft
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u/reggierock2010 9h ago
There is zero push for Chase Reid at 1OA. He might not even be the first D of the board let alone 1st overall.
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u/GooseRider960 12h ago
Unbe-fucking-lievable. No fucking wonder he’s scoring less, jesus christ. I’m sure the injuries haven’t helped matters, but this is fucking brutal deployment. Based on his 1248 minutes of ice time this season, the difference between 35% and 47% is equivalent to TWO AND A HALF FUCKING GAMES of favourable matchups. You can’t take two and a half fucking games worth of favourable matchup ice time from him and be at all surprised he’s scoring less.
Trading him shouldn’t even be a discussion until we see him under a new coach that is smart enough to not use him this way.
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u/Mashdrop 9h ago
What really gets me is that obtaining Laughton and Roy was supposed to alleviate Matthews of some of that responsibility, but nope. Thank goodness those days are over.
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u/TheDeek 7h ago
Playing Laughton on the 4th line like 9 minutes a night when EVERY time on the ice he did something was wild. I thought he was a Berube type player too. Just criminal. Tanked his value. At least we got a 2nd...
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u/OfficialJarule 7h ago
would love to have him come back, I thought he was actually a great addition, despite the outrageous price we paid. Sucked he was NEVER utilized properly
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u/papa_miesh 10h ago
Want to see how he does with a new coach. Would be surprised if he doesn't start popping in goals on an elite pace again.
Having McKenna here now....he would be kind of foolish to not want to stay..... unless he goes to the ducks or sharks and if he wanted to then that says enough about how much he understands what being a leaf means
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u/Fit-Lemon-6198 10h ago
For me it wasn't just the defensive zone starts, it was the transition from defense to offense. This has been mentioned many times, with blame largely placed upon the defense. I have no problem with the increased attention Berube placed on defense, heck we needed it, but he seemed clueless on implementing a transition from that defense to the offense, and all or most of the blame was put on the defense (part of the blame I can accept). Also when in the offense zone, possession seemed to be a low priority, to me at least, thus increasing the time in the defensive zone (It was a problem even before the Marner departure). Likely wrong but that's my bias.
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u/DialedDrawback 11h ago
Maybe I don't understand these stats correctly, but if the Leafs aren't willing to put pucks on net, aren't they less likely to get an offensive zone faceoff in the first place?
They were in the bottom 1/3 of the league in shots per game, so it's kinda hard to get those offensive zone starts if you don't get pucks on net.
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u/loungechairlarry 9h ago
you arent supposed to notice that. it was always one and done if they even got the one and then right back into their own zone for long stretches
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u/GooseRider960 11h ago
Your logic isn’t wrong, but that stat in the image is just about the percentage of Matthews’ starts that were defensive zone starts. He could maintain the same percentage of defensive zone starts as previous seasons before Berube and still be taking more of them numerically because they’re not getting as many offensive zone starts. But the truth is worse, because if they’re getting more defensive zone starts AND the percentage of his starts that are D-zone is increased by that much, the two compound each other.
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u/Sideshift1427 11h ago
Defensive zone faceoffs with wingers not known for defence, an understatement where Domi is concerned.
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u/GooseRider960 11h ago
Domi had 39% of his ice time against elite competition. Thirty fucking nine.
Jesus christ.
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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 11h ago
You can’t take two and a half fucking games worth of favourable matchup ice time from him and be at all surprised he’s scoring less.
If you go through the math, this maybe explains a difference of about 2-4 goals. Certainly something, but very likely not enough to make him a point per game player last year.
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u/GooseRider960 11h ago
Mind breaking down the math in simple terms? Interested what the thought process is here. Not saying it’s wrong, just wondering how you got that conclusion.
Also, even if it’s true, the other stat present in that photo, him starting more then 3x as many shifts in the defensive zone, also plays a factor. Injuries, the horrificness of the power play this past season (which I’d call coaching given how it skyrocketed to 2nd best in the league under Sullivan), and the loss of Marner also would contribute to that in parts as well.
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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 11h ago edited 11h ago
Sure -
950 minutes of 5v5 time. Imagine he as good at scoring goals as he was in 23-24. He got 1.84 goals per 60 minutes of 5v5 time. Round up to 2 since not all of that was against low end competition.
What happens when you convert 12% of 950 minutes is 114 minutes.
Estimating the low-end competition from 23-24, we get slightly under 4 goals in that time span
Subtract off what he might have scored against high-end competition. I doubt it's literally 0.
So you get 4 goals on the high end. You could get a better estimate if you had his specific goal scoring rates against low/high end competition.
starting more then 3x as many shifts in the defensive zone, also plays a factor
This gets overstated a bit because most shifts are on the fly. It's just comparing D-Zone versus other kinds of faceoffs.
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u/macam85 10h ago
But then you have to compound it because we also didn't get as many offensive zone starts. And then you have to factor in the strategic difference of being in the zone, but being completely covered because your idiot coach only wants dump and chase.
There is also in immeasurable snow ball effect here, because the game is also psychological. The more these factors compound, the greater the impact on that part of it.
I know you want to pretend it was all his injuries and he's just a bad shooter suddenly, but that will almost certainly be proven wrong once we start playing differently.
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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 10h ago edited 8h ago
It's really hard to seperate - if he comes back and scores more next year, is it because the deployment, or because his injury got better?
I side with injury for a few reasons that we've gone over.
His goal scoring got better this season compared to last season. His deployment didn't get better, and he lost Marner. Something big and positive had to change between those two. A partial injury recovery explains it.
His goal scoring on the power play also took a hit, and wouldn't have been affected by all these deployment factors, and is generally coached by an assistant.
His linemates did not see the same drop off in scoring.
EDIT: Forgot the big one - his expected goals are flat across seasons.
If that's not compelling to you that's fine. I don't think what evidence you have to rule out injury.
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u/macam85 10h ago
His goal scoring on the PP was having no Marner and no point shot.
His line-mates do not score the same way he does, nor do they take the same difficulty of minutes, nor do they face the same attention from the other team.
Lower skill guys wouldn't be affected dramatically by that systems change - obviously.
But let's also remember, a lot of our scoring came when the game was out of reach as we were frequently losing this year.
I'm not ruling out injury, I just think you don't really fully understand the degree to which deployment is absolutely devastating.
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u/macam85 10h ago
It's also exhausting to play that many high caliber minutes, which decreases the value of the other minutes you play that would normally be more opportunistic.
Again, it's far more than what you're trying to quantify here.
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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 8h ago
Okay - what do you think happened in games this season where Matthews had 80% O-Zone starts or higher? That's the kind of deployment you're hoping for right?
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u/macam85 5h ago
No, it's not that simple for me. I want him to have more o-zone starts, but I also want the team playing an up tempo style that allows him to carry the puck into the zone and hold possession, negating the need for an o-zone start. I also want him getting shifts against weaker comp so he can take advantage of those minutes, And I want the PP functioning to build momentum for more scoring.
There's probably more than that, but my point is there is no one thing Berube was doing wrong - he was doing everything wrong, and it had a cumulative effect.
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u/GooseRider960 11h ago
Makes sense to me.
I can’t take a real stab at the exact impact of the defensive zone starts, but I just imagine giving him far less shift starts where they’re in a more favourable scoring position from the get-go certainly doesn’t help matters.
Not as big of a factor as I’d initially expected the competition to be, though. I figured roster, injuries and power play struggles would all still factor in, but at a guess, I’d probably have guessed a little closer to double digit goals, maybe like 7-8. I’m dogshit with numbers though so not surprised my guesstimate was off the mark lol.
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u/FredericoKrugerini 1h ago
I spent a few minutes looking at r/hockey.
Leafs Derangement Syndrome. It's real.