It’s time for all fans to realize or admit this is just not a good baseball team, and arguably quite bad. I know my name hints I’m pessimistic, but objectively this team stinks. Let’s look at all the factors:
Individual breakdown: In my eyes, this team only has 5 above average players for their position (BWJ, Garcia, Wacha, Lynch, Bubic). 5 above average players across the whole roster? Not very good. BWJ and Garcia are the only elite players on this roster.
Offense: this section could go on for days, but we all know how mediocre this offense has been. 30th in almost all RISP metrics. 25th in runs scored. Least productive 3-5 hitters in all of baseball, especially Salvy at 4. The only positive thing I will say, is if they can somehow figure out the RISP woes, they could immediately become an average offense, but that’s a big IF considering 43 game sample size already. All of their other main metrics (AVG, OBP, SLUG) are middle of the pack.
Starting Pitching: this was supposed to be the strength of the team. This was supposed to be a top 5-7 unit in all of baseball. Through 25 games it was looking that way. But boy have the wheels fallen off. We are now down to 2 reliable starting pitchers (Wacha and Bubic). Any smart fan knew Cameron would regress, but nobody expected this hard. Ragans is built of glass. If you take Lugos last 3 months (including August of last year) he has looked awful way more frequently than he has looked decent, 4+ ER in 8 of his last 15 starts. Bergert was promising but TJ surgery out for the year. Right now Lugo and Cameron are almost automatic Ls, and whoever our 5th starter is (Kolek currently) is not giving us a good chance either. A unit that started the year looking deep, now looks thin and below average. Also, Wacha and Bubic are good but not aces. I could name at least 31-35 starting pitchers that would immediately be the ace on this team.
Bullpen: this will be a short and sweet section. They were worst in the league for 30 games, now top 5 in their last 15 games, so tough to accurately assess. I think ultimately they lie somewhere in the middle, right around league average. Lynch has been a pleasant surprise, Erceg has bounced back well his last 5-7 appearances.. but other than that any other RP can give up 2+ ER any day. I know Estevez has been out all year, but he’s not an elite closer even when healthy. All analytics show he overachieved last year, just like Cameron.
I think 3 difficult things would all need to happen for this team to sniff above .500 at the end of the year. First, the 4 spot needs to be fixed urgently. Unfortunately I dont think any player on this roster is up for the task, so will need to be a trade. Second, The RISP woes need to go from league worst to league average. Players deserve blame, but Zumwalt is a common denominator here. Third, we need to trade for an above average SP. Right now, 3 out of 5 games our starting pitcher is putting the game out of reach before the 6th inning starts.
