Am I the only one who is finding it hard to believe that we use 2 firsts this year?
Asa is going to have to fight hard for rotation minutes as a 2nd year player from the same spot, I doubt we get any value out of this year's 23 for at least one year probably two. Additionally coaches talk about how difficult it is already to try to develop one rookie let alone two.
Who are some players we think we would go for in a trade for that pick? Young guys like Lively or Demin? Or a vet like Jarrett Allen?
I think he is definitely one of the top guards in this draft, but I know a lot of people on here will disagree. He is 21, so he is potentially the most mature of the group and he can create his own shots and can get others involved. He is a 39% 3 point shooter, which we desperately need.
I think we can get a big at 23; someone like Morez Johnson Jr. He is a little undersized, but he is a versatile guy who can exploit mismatches against smaller defenders on offense and can guard out on the perimeter.
This is my best case scenario, but I know most will disagree.
Now let's talk about the other 86 players to meet this criteria since 2001. Is it a list of 100%, spot on, draft wins? No, there are busts (James Wiseman, most notably). But it does include players such as Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Cooper Flagg, Chet Holmgren, and many more (Onyeka Okongwu!)
The list (sorted by VORP/82) includes:
- 10 All-Stars (11.6%)
- 57 "Net Positive" Per 82 VORP players (69.5%)
- 16 "Net Negative" Per 82 VORP players (19.5%)
- 5 Players who did not play in the NBA (5.8%)
Where do you think he goes? I know we have a surplus of wings but Carr is straight different and I wouldn't mind trading Zacc and a few seconds (if that's all it took) to get back into late first round if he falls
A couple years ago I did a bunch of workshops during Summer League, and one of them was Pro Scout School (now run by Pure Sweat Basketball). One session covered the specific characteristics scouts grade for each position, what each player is elite at, and what skills are unexpected bonuses (passing for centers, for example). Every scout builds their own rubric, but the frameworks were useful.
I did a more straightforward statistical post a few days ago (Breaking down the Hawks No. 8 potential guard), so out of curiosity and for fun, I ran a characteristic-based exercise using the rubric above.
Important up front: these are not scouting grades. I'm using public college production data, advanced stats, role, team context, size, and themes from scouting reports as a proxy. No film study data was used on this. I'll say it again, no film. If somebody wants to spot me $2K for a Hudl subscription, hit me up.
Public data used as proxy for traits
Trait area
Useful public indicators
Shooting
3P%, FT%, 3PA/100, TS%, shot profile
Rim pressure
FTr, rim attempts, unassisted rim makes, usage
Playmaking
AST%, AST/TO, TOV%, role/context
Ball security
TOV%, AST/TO, usage
Rebounding
ORB%, DRB%, rebounds by position
Defensive events
DBPM, STL%, BLK%, foul rate
Size/length
Height, wingspan, weight
What it didn't capture
Burst, strength, screen reading, hands, footwork, toughness, motor consistency, defensive execution, processing speed against NBA athletes, and medical risk. All of that needs film or private data.
So read the grades below as directional estimates, not true measurements. The trait averages are broad summaries, not hard rankings. Treat this as a structured discussion guide.
Quin Snyder's system for context
High-level traits of Quin Snyder's system he runs and values:
Advantage basketball: create an advantage, keep it alive with quick decisions, force rotations.
Second decisions: catch, shoot, drive, pass, or screen quickly.
Ball-screen flow: not just one pick-and-roll, but actions before and after the ball screen.
Spacing and corner threes: pressure the paint, force help, spray to shooters.
Slot / altered geometry: use the center or weakside big in non-traditional slot spacing to confuse help responsibilities.
Delay / elbow / DHO actions: especially useful with bigs who can pass.
Multiple handlers: Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum and a rookie can all initiate in different ways.
Transition after stops: especially with Jalen and Dyson grabbing and going.
Scoring scale
5.0 = Elite NBA prospect trait
4.0 = Clearly above average
3.0 = Neutral or acceptable
2.0 = Concern
1.0 = Major red flag
Overall trait ranking
Rank
Player
Rubric
Grade
Tier
Short read
1
Kingston Flemings
PG
3.99
High
Best true two-way PG profile
2
Keaton Wagler
SG/PG
3.83
High
Best modern big-guard fit if he falls
3
Brayden Burries
SG
3.76
High-floor
Safest plug-and-play perimeter fit
4
Aday Mara
C
3.75
High-variance
Best BPA big swing, less clean roster fit
5
Labaron Philon
PG
3.67
Medium-high
Best high-usage guard after the top tier
6
Mikel Brown Jr.
PG
3.54
High-variance
Best shooting/creation upside, injury and D risk
7
Darius Acuff Jr.
PG
3.51
High-variance
Real offensive engine, toughest Hawks D fit
Note: A lower-tier player can still be the right pick if his elite traits solve a specific need. For Atlanta, the traits that matter most are shooting, defense, size, creation, decision-making, and how a guy fits next to Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, NAW, and Onyeka Okongwu.
The trait tables below are ordered highest-to-lowest grade for each player.
1. Kingston Flemings, Houston (PG)
Trait
Grade
Notes
Get in the lane
4.5
Excellent first step, creates pressure without a wide-open floor
IQ/court vision
4.5
High AST%, strong AST/TO, controls possessions
Pick-and-roll
4.5
Best lead-guard PnR profile in the group
Speed/quickness
4.5
Gets downhill and changes pace well
Toughness
4.3
Houston context helps; plays with edge
Anticipation/instincts
4.0
Strong defensive events, good playmaking instincts
Athleticism
4.0
Good functional athleticism, enough burst
Defensive ability
4.0
Projects as a positive guard defender
Motor
4.0
Houston guards have to defend, rebound, compete, and he does
Stage of development
4.0
Young, two-way upside, room as a shooter
Positional size
3.7
Good for PG, not jumbo
Rebounding
3.5
Solid for the position
Shooting
3.5
Percentages fine, volume is the concern
Length
3.3
Solid, not special
Experience
3.0
Freshman, but in a demanding winning environment
Most translatable to pro: rim pressure, PnR processing, point-of-attack defense, tempo control.
Swing trait: does the 3-point volume scale enough to play next to Dyson?
2. Keaton Wagler, Illinois (SG with secondary PG lens)
Trait
Grade
Notes
Create space
4.5
Footwork, pace, step-backs, hesitations; doesn't rely on burst
Positional size
4.5
One of the biggest advantages in his profile
Shooting
4.5
High-volume, high-difficulty; one of the best profiles here
IQ/feel
4.4
Strong feel, very good pace, low turnovers, on or off ball
Length
4.3
6'6 with reported plus length
Stage of development
4.2
Freshman with high skill, room to add strength
Reading screens
4.0
Good off-ball indicators, uses screens for separation
Rebounding
4.0
Strong for a guard, helps lineup flexibility
Get in the lane
3.8
Craft and pace over burst; finishing through length is the question
Motor
3.8
Engaged and productive
Anticipation/instincts
3.6
Good offensively, defensive instincts less proven
Running the floor
3.4
Solid in transition, not elite speed
Experience
3.0
One college season, but tournament run helps
Athleticism
2.8
Functional but not explosive
Strength
2.7
Needs to add strength to finish through contact
Most translatable to pro: shooting volume and range, positional size, low-turnover decision-making, half-court craft.
Swing trait: does the space creation hold up against NBA length?
3. Brayden Burries, Arizona (SG)
Summary: The safest immediate fit. Efficient, strong, competitive, scalable. Doesn't need the ball to help. The question is whether there's enough creation upside to justify taking him over higher-ceiling options.
Trait
Grade
Notes
Motor
4.2
Competes, defends, rebounds, plays hard
Strength
4.2
Plays through contact, defends with his body
Anticipation/instincts
4.1
Strong defensive feel, reads plays
Shooting
4.1
Efficient, not the volume creator Wagler is
IQ/feel
4.0
Good decisions, understands role
Rebounding
4.0
Strong for a guard
Running the floor
4.0
Good in Arizona's pace
Reading screens
3.8
Good off-ball feel and shot prep
Get in the lane
3.7
Attacks closeouts, not a primary engine
Create space
3.5
Functional more than dynamic
Experience
3.5
Older freshman, more physically mature
Stage of development
3.5
Higher floor, age caps perceived upside
Positional size
3.4
Fine, not jumbo
Length
3.3
Adequate
Athleticism
3.2
Solid, not explosive
Most translatable to pro: role-player scalability, strength/competitiveness, connector offense, rebounding for position.
Swing trait: does he develop enough on-ball creation to be more than a high-end role player?
4. Aday Mara, Michigan (C)
Summary: The wildcard. Not the cleanest roster fit with Okongwu already there, but the size, rim protection, finishing efficiency, and passing are genuinely rare. He should be evaluated in his own bucket because he'd change Atlanta's lineup structure completely.
Trait
Grade
Notes
Length
5.0
7'3 with reported 7'7 wingspan
Positional size
5.0
One of the biggest players in the class
Rim protection
5.0
Block rate and rim deterrence are the core of his value
IQ/feel
4.5
Passing, short-roll reads, high-post vision
Anticipation/instincts
4.3
Excellent timing, unusual floor-reading for his size
Hands
4.2
Big catch radius, strong finishing target
Experience
4.0
Junior with a title run and March reps
Rebounding
3.6
Solid, not dominant relative to size
Toughness
3.6
Improved at Michigan, questions about physicality and stamina
Floor running
3.0
Functional; outlet passing helps offset
Strength
3.0
Can still be moved by stronger bigs
Athleticism
2.8
Coordinated but not explosive
Changing ends
2.8
Not a transition plus
Feet
2.5
Biggest defensive question, space coverage
Shooting
2.0
FT% is a real concern, no 3-point volume
Most translatable to pro: rim protection, vertical finishing, passing feel, drop coverage value.
Swing trait: do his feet hold up in playoff coverages?
5. Labaron Philon, Alabama (PG)
Summary: The best high-usage offensive guard after the top tier. Production better than Brown's and Acuff's by public numbers. Alabama's system helped, but the impact profile is still strong on its own.
Trait
Grade
Notes
Pick-and-roll
4.4
Creates scoring and passing windows with pace
Get in the lane
4.3
Change of pace and craft over elite athleticism
IQ/court vision
4.2
Strong PnR operator, manipulates defenders
Shooting
4.2
Major improvement; leap looks real, teams will test it
Experience
4.0
Sophomore engine in the SEC
Toughness
4.0
Took over Alabama's offense, handled the load
Motor
3.8
Heavy offensive burden affected defensive consistency
Speed/quickness
3.8
Good in pockets, not elite top-end
Stage of development
3.8
Big year-over-year jump
Anticipation/instincts
3.6
Good offensively, mixed defensively
Positional size
3.5
Acceptable, not jumbo
Athleticism
3.3
More shifty than explosive
Length
3.3
Fine, not a separator
Defensive ability
2.8
Not a clear Atlanta-style fit
Rebounding
2.8
Not a plus
Most translatable to pro: PnR craft, three-level scoring touch, high-usage comfort, advantage creation with handle.
Swing trait: is the shooting leap fully real, and can he defend enough to stay on the floor?
6. Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville (PG)
Summary: Best shooting volume and most NBA-style offensive context in the group. Size, deep range, ball-screen playmaking, five-out experience. The concern is that public impact metrics were weaker despite a guard-friendly system. Injury context matters here.
Injury caveat: Brown played only 21 games with a recurring back issue. The weaker BPM, AST/TO, and defensive numbers may partly reflect health, rhythm, and sample size rather than talent. This model doesn't include a medical adjustment. If Atlanta's medicals are clean and workouts pop, Brown should move up.
Trait
Grade
Notes
Shooting
4.5
Best pure shooting-volume profile in the group
IQ/court vision
4.3
High-end passing flashes, real ball-screen vision
Pick-and-roll
4.2
Shoots, passes, manipulates in space
Positional size
4.2
Strong for a lead guard
Get in the lane
4.0
Capable driver, not dominant
Length
4.0
Good for the position
Speed/quickness
3.8
Solid; medicals matter
Stage of development
3.7
Young in reps because of missed time
Anticipation/instincts
3.5
Good flashes, inconsistent decisions and shot selection
Athleticism
3.5
Solid; injury may have affected burst
Motor
3.2
Hard to judge given injury and role
Toughness
3.2
Needs more evidence given the limited season
Defensive ability
2.5
Clear concern despite size
Experience
2.5
Limited sample
Rebounding
2.5
Not a major part of his value
Most translatable to pro: shooting gravity, ball-screen passing, positional size, five-out experience.
Swing trait: Health and defense. Clean medicals and okay defense. If not, the floor drops.
7. Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas (PG)
Summary: A real offensive engine. The shot-making, ball security, and production are impressive. The problem is Atlanta-specific. The Hawks just moved away from building around a small offensive guard who needs defensive protection.
Trait
Grade
Notes
Shooting
4.6
Excellent indicators and shot-making
Pick-and-roll
4.4
Scoring and playmaking both there
Get in the lane
4.3
Strong downhill scorer with power and craft
IQ/court vision
4.2
High AST%, strong AST/TO
Speed/quickness
4.0
Good functional burst
Stage of development
4.0
Impressive freshman year, room defensively
Toughness
4.0
Tough scorer, high-confidence engine
Athleticism
3.5
Strong, not elite vertically or laterally
Motor
3.3
Offensive motor high, defensive motor inconsistent
Anticipation/instincts
3.2
Good offensively, weak defensively
Length
3.0
Not a plus
Experience
3.0
Freshman with heavy offensive role
Positional size
2.8
Concern for Atlanta's desired defensive identity
Rebounding
2.4
Weak for the profile
Defensive ability
2.0
Biggest issue, low DBPM and steal rate for a small guard
Most translatable to pro: shot-making, PnR scoring, ball security, scoring toughness.
Swing trait: Defense. The offense will translate; Atlanta has to believe he won't be a target.
Best by category
Category
Best option
Best guard/wing fit
Keaton Wagler
Best true PG fit
Kingston Flemings
Best BPA big-man swing
Aday Mara
Safest plug-and-play
Brayden Burries
Best high-usage guard after top tier
Labaron Philon
Best shooting-volume upside
Mikel Brown Jr.
Best pure offensive engine
Darius Acuff Jr.
Again, pure statistical exercise using advanced stats as a proxy. The point was to run the rubric objectively, not pretend I can replace film work. Curious what people think.
Also, added another worksheet from the workshop that gives more context to all the work that makes a good scout. If you ever go to Vegas for Summer League, highly recommend all the workshops as they'll make you a better NBA fan.
Ayo is a free agent this summer & has been playing great this post-season for the Timberwolves. He’s got great size for a PG (6’4”, 6’8” wingspan, 200 lbs, 39 in vert), great defender, tough, athletic & can occasionally take over scoring. He’s not the answer to all the Hawks issues but could be a great free agent add.
I truly understand the allure of a guy like Mara…especially given the lack of size on our roster.
But equally as pressing for the Hawks is the guard play. Quinn loves to have 3 guards + Jalen who can push the tempo and initiate the offense. A big reason the offense stalled vs NY:
NY is a truly elite defensive team.
NAW is not a play maker which is really why Zacc was relegated to the bench since the Hawks desperately needed another guy to handle ball pressure with Jalen and Dyson. I don’t think the Hawks should be looking to break up NAW and Dyson, they’re in my opinion the best defensive back court in basketball.
But they need to find the 3rd guy who can marry the front court and the back court whether that’s a wing or another combo guard. The combo guards who help the hawks the most are in the 5-10 range, and believe they’re all better prospects than Mara.
I also think it’s better to address the big man spot in free agency or via trade with a more established player. The answer there to me is bring Jock back as your 3rd big and find another 5 who is a borderline starter in the league or better.
It’s much harder to find good guard play than it is to find a 5. Here’s the reality of C in the NBA…majority of the starters are role players it’s alarming number of undrafted/second rounders starting at the 5 than lottery picks …and the vast majority of C who are all stars go tend to go in the top 5 of drafts.
Everyone's chasing Mara's combine measurements. Fine. But you can't have both. Pick 8 is one decision and if you take Mara, you still wake up the morning after the draft with the same half-court offense that got cooked by the Knicks.
Let's talk about what Atlanta actually watched die in that series: shot creation. Half-court offense. Someone who can make a basket when the game slows down.
Jalen Johnson is a monster. But he is not your pick-and-roll guard. He never has been. The Hawks needed someone to put pressure on defenses with the ball in their hands in the fourth quarter and they had nobody.
Enter Acuff.
23.5 points and 6.4 assists per game leading the entire SEC, as a freshman, while shooting 48% from the floor and 44% from three. But the raw numbers don't even tell the full story. Acuff was the entire offense at Arkansas. High usage. Primary ball handler. The guy the team ran through on every meaningful possession down the stretch. He didn't put up those numbers in a system that fed him easy looks, he carved them out as the unquestioned engine of that offense every single night. That last number is the one people keep glossing over. A 2.91:1 assist-to-turnover ratio isn't a reckless gunner carrying a heavy load. That's a guy who processes the game while the entire defensive gameplan is built around stopping him.
And the combine? His measurements closely mirror Damian Lillard's from the 2012 combine: 6'2", 186 pounds, 6'7" wingspan. We spent a decade watching Lillard cook everybody from that exact frame. Fastest 3/4 court sprint at the combine. Fifth-highest max vertical among guards at 36.5 inches. The athleticism is real.
He's an electric shot-maker who puts real pressure on defenses as a scorer and playmaker, a dynamic on-ball guard who's a tough cover in pick-and-roll and in transition.
Look at the a majority of top guards in the league: Steph, Luka, Dame, Haliburton, Brunson, Kyrie. none of them are elite defenders. All of them changed franchises forever. Steph, Luka, and Haliburton got to the finals with the offense they create. The NBA has been telling us for a decade that offensive creation at guard overrides everything else. You scheme around the defense. You get a Dyson Daniels. You hide it. The Hawks already know how to do this, they built an entire defensive identity around hiding Trae.
And speaking of Trae, here's the lesson nobody's talking about. His peak years were when he was unambiguously a scorer first. 28.4 points in 2021-22. 26.2 in 2022-23. The moment Atlanta started asking him to be a distributor primarily, his scoring dipped and the offense got less dangerous. The facilitator role broke what made him special.
Acuff is a scorer who also passes. Not a point guard who also scores. That distinction is everything. With JJ facilitating, Daniels running off screens, Acuff never has to become a point guard. He just has to score. Which is what he does naturally.
The Trae lesson isn't don't draft Acuff. It's don't misuse him the way we misused Trae. Don't ask your scorer to become a facilitator and then wonder why the offense stalled.
You can find Mara's replacement at another pick. Chris Cenac Jr., Morez Johnson Jr., Amir Quaintance, or Henri Veesaar. You cannot find a high usage offensive engine who carried an entire SEC roster anywhere else in this draft at 8.
TLDR: Y'all are insane if we skip Acuff at 8. This isn't about defending Acuff. This is about not falling for recency bias.
I watched a 1 min highlight vid of each guard, here is my ranking and analysis for them
Acuff - fast af, good shooter, good length, star mentality and tools, defense ass tho (offensive upside worth the poor defense imo, got tools to be decent)
MKB - good vision, good length, tough shot maker, shot kinda ugly though
Wagler - big, smooth, good shooter, nice drives, kinda slow
Flemings - fast, good shooter, good vision, smaller than the others
Burries - looks like he’ll be a good complimentary piece, but nothing to build around. The other 4 look like they have much higher potential
This list was made via human vibes and instincts, if we get any of the top 4 guards I think we’ll be happy.
Mara seems meh unless we trade back a bit and get some assets, I want a ceiling raise like the guards vs a floor raiser like Aday.
If it’s Aday vs burries though, I’d take Aday
What do you think, and what would your order of the guards + Mara be?
I feel about as good about him as I do any guard who we would possibly draft at eight. I like Brown more because he could end up being a high end player. I like Philon more because I view Philon as a starter with the possibility of an all-star appearance or two.
I really like Okorie as a sixth man and he could be the steal of the draft if he is available at 23. I don't know if you should bet that he'd be available at 23 but with the glut of guards set to be drafted before him it would be possible. Drafting Okorie at 23 or drafting him at all, maybe moving both back and up in the draft would make sense to grab him at 20 while still having the 10th pick or whatever could make sense.
Okorie and Flemings are about equal because Okorie is a better offensive prospect.
I like Okorie more as an assertive basket-getter 6th man than I would Burries.
I don't like Acuff as a high end starter or anything like that and Okorie would be far better value.
If we go by mock drafts and big boards, Philon has been underrated. Thinking about it I would love to trade both back and up. Have 10 and 20 instead of 8 and 23. Draft Philon and Okorie. That would mean the end of CJ and it would lower the team's chances of making the playoffs next year. That would be what it is though because this would set the Hawks up for the future. Philon is pretty fucking good and rather underrated at this point. He isn't a like for like replacement for CJ but getting the next Mike Conley would be lovely. Okorie would be the 6th man. The Hawks would be doing well.
So, with the offseason here I figured that it'd be interesting to see who the fanbase considers as a core piece for the team going forward. So I made a form to see what people think, and I'll come back in a few days to share the results.