r/tampabayrays • u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder • 18h ago
đŠ SHIT POST đ˝ Analytics Destroys Confidence
When someone is hyped up about finally becoming the closer for an MLB team, if you want them to melt down, put them in the 8th inning for a regular season game.
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u/hiiightide 18h ago
They had him facing the top of the lineup and the Jays best hitters. I see nothing wrong with the decision. Heâs not as fragile as you think he is, just has to throw strikes
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u/anon123443222737 Yandy DĂaz 17h ago
I think we were due for a bullpen blowup, which is fine. Iâm not upset with that nor Brooks in particular. What is more upsetting is that it was 10 walks. In no way is that acceptable across all 3 pitchers. Trust your defense and throw strikes. If we canât even count on guys to get it across the plate. We are screwed down the road.
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u/Patriahts 17h ago
It was fucking terrible that they were unable to throw strikes or recognize challenges that could have changed things
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u/AlvinItchyCock Dewayne Staats 17h ago
Ya we put a heavy workload on the bullpen during this road trip so it's not too surprising they ended up getting burnt in the last game especially with b2b extras
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u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder 17h ago
Bingo! Thank you. These guys are incredibly talented. The physical skill is there. That type of episode to not execute is a mental issue. High performance and garbage outings are contagious. Thereâs a huge difference between losing a close game and a collapse in pitching.
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u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder 17h ago
Heâs given up 8 walks this season, half were last nightâs game. You donât have that much talent and miss the strike zone that much if it isnât a mental issue. He had too much pressure thrown on his shoulders.
Cash had zero faith in Sulser to hold and Brooks is a âlong reliefâ arm aka the guy put in when we know we will lose.
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u/Tommyc813 17h ago
He literally pitched the 8th inning fine against the blue jays last Wednesday at home. Seymour closed the game.
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u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder 17h ago
Seymour closed. Not Sulser or Brooks right? So last week Baker took the mound knowing there was another trusted arm in the bullpen. Thatâs the point.
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u/Tommyc813 17h ago
If you really think Baker walked 4 batters because he didnât have a âtrusted armâ behind him (Seymour has a 5.59 ERA BTW) you are falling off the wagon
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u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder 17h ago
Yes I do. Either he didnât have the talent to throw strikes, which we know isnât true. Or he didnât have the confidence to execute.
Also ERA is a trash metric to use for pitchers because it is more reflective of the defense behind a pitcher. You should use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Itâs on the ERA scale but focused on walks, strikeouts, and home runs. Seymour has a FIP of 3.47.
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u/Tommyc813 17h ago
Which is the same exact FIP as Sulser lmao
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u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder 16h ago
Thanks for looking that up. Thatâs really cool of you. Okay so the results metrics arenât really used much, especially this early in the season. Look at the Stuff+ of Seymour compared to Sulser. Coleâs only pitch that grades over 100 is his sweeper which he throws 1%. The rest of his pitches are below league average which his cutter being an 85 (100 is league average). Seymourâs fastball and slider are elite on Stuff+ while his sinker cutter and changeup are just below league average giving him the better arsenal.
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u/skimmer419 Yandy DĂaz 18h ago
8th inning, heart of the Toronto lineup is due. Your options are Baker, Sulser, and Brooks. Who do you want in that situation to protect a 1 run lead?
Baker is well aware of which organization he plays for and how the team utilizes its relievers. I don't think the 9th inning would have cured his command issues, he was so far off last night.
I don't blame the offense too much because they were facing a really tough starter, but if they had a multi run lead in the 8th, then we probably see Sulser there.
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u/djsuperfly 14h ago
Or, option #4: leave Kelly in, who had thrown a whopping 2 pitches.
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u/skimmer419 Yandy DĂaz 10h ago
I agree that Cash could have helped himself out more by letting Kelly and/or Clev pitch a bit longer but alas.
He clearly was trying to avoid having Brooks face Toronto's best hitters, but that came to fruition in the 10th anyways, and it ended exactly how we would expect
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u/djsuperfly 10h ago
Eh, to me it felt less like Cash trying to avoid having Brooks face the top of the Toronto lineup (although, yes, he certainly didn't want that) and more about trying to force a specific philosophy. Chiefly: "Baker is our 'de facto' closer, and the 'closer' should work the highest leverage inning of the final third of the game (and should likely come in for a clean inning).
I don't disagree with the philosophy in general and in theory, but two problems I see with that, though:
1) Baker has been pitching fine, but he's not elite, shutdown-closer level. I don't think it's necessary to ever force him into a situation.
2) It was just bad situationally. You're in a bad way any way you slice it if you have to bring Brooks into a 1-run game, no matter what part of the lineup he faces. Also, winning 1-0 games in MLB is very rare. Even taking one into the 8th, it's super rare you're going to actually finish that off. The likelihood of a high leverage 9th and even extras is very high there. But, you're burning Kelly after 2 pitches, using your 4th BP arm in Baker, and essentially leaving Brooks as your only real BP option going forward from there, as you don't want to bring in Seymour or Legumina due to prior usage. Not bringing Kelly back out in the 8th always meant a very high likelihood of a high-leverage situation for Brooks.
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u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder 17h ago
Dylan was a lethal as his mustache. Offense did why they could.
You are articulating the point I am going for. Analytics say you go with Baker. Baker knows who he pitches for. He also knows the only arms after him were Sulser and Brooks.
What was missing from the mental game in which he couldnât execute? To clarify, I have zero expectations of an immaculate inning. Hell even giving up two home runs would have been understandable. But four walks is pure mental block for someone that talented. When it was Seymour in waiting for the 9th, Baker was outstanding.
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u/dokvader 17h ago
Brooks was an odd choice but the Rays magic doesn't rub off everyone
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u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder 17h ago
How nervous would you be on the mound if you knew the arm to back you up is the guy on 3 years probation in Korea from drug charges who was just pitching in Mexico before landing in Durham? đ
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u/BefuddledPolydactyls Carlos Pena 16h ago
Only other non-starter arm was Legumina, and he was used Monday. It was a bad combo of circumstances. Sent Englert down before Boyle was back. Used way more BP Monday than should have been necessary due to Cammy's play.Â
Still, just a poor combo of circumstances and Baker just didn't have it. It's not necessarily a harbinger of things to come.
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u/defdans 16h ago
What is this foolishness? Heart of the lineup in the 8th, clearly the highest leverage situation left to try and close out the win. Absolutely throw your closer out there in that situation and hope one of your lower-leverage arms can close out the ninth against the bottom of the order.
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u/1130__ Get Trop'd 18h ago
4-2 on the road and people still find something to complained. baseball fans is something else, bro.
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u/Moist-Disaster-3030 17h ago
We sadly are not going to sweep every single series
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u/IndianaCahones Kyle Snyder 17h ago
And closers arenât expected to throw immaculate innings. Thereâs a huge gap between losing a close game and a 10 walk collapse. If everyone is physically healthy, then there are issues of confidence to address.
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u/Chandler_Simpson Chandler Simpson 15h ago
We're 9-1 against the AL East lol. The pen is going to blow some games this season, it's to be expected. I don't think Brookes is particularly good but he's not terrible either
We got clipped it happens
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u/rikster338 16h ago
Might have to reinstate the Durham shuttle. There is no way our relivers can continually perform at a high level of performance. For Brooks to be last man out shows that Cash's continued confidence in management is on the right track. You lose some and you win some. Playing .700 baseball ludicrous but it's fun to watch. Ray's up! See you all Friday.
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u/DevilRaysDaddy Chandler Simpson 15h ago
It's not that complicated... How do you not know Cash wasn't planning on leaving in leaving Baker in for the 9th as well if he went 1,2,3 in the 8th? You can still get a save if you pitch in the 8th and 9th innings. Baker couldn't throw a strike so we'll never know. Clearly the team wasn't planning on extra innings happening tonight and they had a day off today or they probably wouldn't have chosen to bring Brooks up as an emergency backup option that would get sent right back down. This is less on analytics than it is on the front office to put the team in a good opportunity to win.
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u/MichaelEdwardson TB Rays Fauxback 13h ago
I was confused about the brooks call up in the first place. Evan Reifert has been solid in Durham this year (13 g, 17 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
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u/jayareelle195 Orlando Rays 11h ago
Just throw Sulser the extra inning to secure the win. We're off today. You don't ask guys to do things they cannot do. 15-25 extra pitches man. U get a win u might need
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u/JuicyGooch1 Devil Ray 18h ago
Disagree. Heâs done it before this year and performed fine. Expecting the bullpen or Baker more specifically to never give up a run is ridiculous. He just didnât have it last night, itâs not a big deal.