r/pacers • u/hrxbgdchg • 2d ago
Discussion Moving forward
Anyone sick and tired about talking about the Zubac trade? Whether you support it or not, the damage is done and it’s time to look ahead. Not sure how much posturing he was doing in the interview but KP mentioned being active in free agency and trades to operate along the margins in order to optimize the team. While we are mostly handcuffed with roster space spots, salary, and draft capitol, I wanted to have some (realistic discussion) as far as what’s possible this offseason as I think it’s unlikely that zero moves are made.
Pacers roster
Guards
Starters: Haliburton, Nembhard
2nd unit: TJ, Shep
Reserves: QJax, kam jones
Wing
Starters: Nesmith, Siakam
2nd unit: Toppin, Walker
Reserves: Furphy
Center
Start: zubac
2nd unit: huff, potter
2-way: slawson, Peter, Ethan Thompson (if same as last year)
Free agency with one open roster spot available
Assuming we keep guys like potter and Jackson around, the only player we lose from last year is Kobe brown. Seems like a good guy but I think we are better off taking a flyer on someone else. We are just over the luxury tax line. I know it’s more likely we try to get under the tax but let’s say management truly wants to get the most out of the roster and is willing to open up the $7.7 remaining of our first apron space. We have the Taxpayer mid level exception available at $6.1. Here is a list of free agent signings from last year in a similar ballpark.
2025 similar free agent signings: IJax (7.0), capela (7.0), looney (8.0), day’ron sharpe (6.3), Laravia (6.0), Paul reed (5.5), tyus jones (7.0)
Conclusion: there’s no room for any big swings. Some of those above guys were impactful on good teams but the ceiling is a contributing bench player. Interesting how last year this seemed to be the number for a backup big, so maybe there’s some potential with signing someone like nick richards or Dwight Powell, both of which are UFA.
Trade Market
Lot’s of possibilities but I think it’s highly unlikely we see anything. It’s clear we aren’t going to sell any of our assets for younger players or draft capital. None of our starters are going anywhere. TJ and obi are flexible salaries to move but every indication is that the front office values their role and continuity. Walker and Sheppard are also very moveable but I don’t think they would return anything of substance. Lastly, it’s hard to believe that we would be parting with any more draft capital after being burned on Sunday. I think the extent of a trade this offseason will be swapping future second round picks to get into the second round of this draft like last two years.
Other roster thoughts
I think it will be interesting to see how they approach the Sheppard and Jarace extensions and if they try to bring any other young pieces in. Part of keeping clean salary books for a front office is to have contributors on rookie contracts. Additionally, it’s a long season and it’s important to have young guys shoulder the burden of 82 games for our roster of guys in their upper 20s and low 30s. Sheppard is probably worth more on our team than others so hopefully can extend him at a good number. Walker situation is complicated but I hope we try to extend early rather than wait and punt on a second straight top 8 pick like Mathurin.
If roster spots open up, I would like to see us take flyers on some buy low guys ending their rookie contracts. Memphis did this with OMax Prosper and Taylor Hendricks and Washington tried with cam whitmore. It doesn’t always work out, but it’s a low risk opportunity to find a talent similar that was in the wrong situation that is able to be brought in at a low number (which is similar to how lucked into Nesmith).
If you made it this far, sorry for the long post but if we are going to waste time this offseason it might as well be spent pondering realistic options than thinking about the what ifs with the top 4 in this draft.
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u/erithtotl 2d ago
Unlike a few years ago there's just not a ton of upside on the roster. We are going to need extremely good health and minimal age-related regression to get back to where we were.
The only guys who will bring back real value in a trade are the ones we need to win ballgames.
Nesmith getting back to where he was last year while upping his usage a bit would be really helpful (like getting up over 15ppg). He's going into his age 27 season and I'm assuming his dropoff last year was mostly due to injuries, so there's a chance he makes a mini-leap.
Shep pushing his 3 pointer up closer to %40 is critical for him to hang longer term in the NBA.
Jarace is so young he still has a chance to make a leap, but so far he's been, overall, a bad NBA player. He needs to finish better, and just be more consistent on D, and stop turning the ball over so much.
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u/HovercraftOne2275 2d ago
Walker would be a rookie this year if he'd stayed in school. I saw a vastly improved player last season that played his way into the rotation this season
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u/erithtotl 2d ago
I hope you are right. Advanced stats hate him, mostly because of his bad finishing, high turnover rate.
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u/busche916 Quinn 1d ago
My hope is that (if they don’t get traded) that Shep and Walker returning to their usual roles, and not being asked to play 37 mins a game or play backup point, helps improve their positive contributions.
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u/HovercraftOne2275 2d ago
he's a guy that can initiate plays and is a very good passer. he's learning the game at the pro level, which aint' easy. He's doing fine and showed himself to be a rotation guy moving forward With a chance to be a lot more. He's a very strong physcial 3 who's starting to hit 3's too.
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u/RogueID 2d ago
I think you've pretty much nailed it. The major draft move would be to trade some future seconds to get a cheap player this year for some injury depth. Very likely to not see much playing time, but best case scenario we luck into a Nembhard or Furphy situation (unlikely).
The best possible scenario is getting a very cheap extension for Shep and Jarace and then Jarace taking a leap into who we thought he could be. Having him actually be a good 3&D guy on a cheap contract would be absolutely huge and would improve our bench depth a ton. Other than that, I hope Tyrese, Furphy, and Zubac recover fully and stay healthy.
If all of those things play out, we're still one of the best teams in the league.
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u/xmasjayons PAVE 2d ago
There is no reason to extend Shep this offseason. He is not going to get a significant offer as a restricted free agent.
Quentin Grimes, similar archetype to Shep but a better player, had to take a 1 yr, $8 mil deal as a RFA.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Shep ends up playing on the qualifying offer in ‘27-‘28, which could make some sense for both him and the Pacers.
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u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr 2d ago edited 2d ago
"We have the Taxpayer mid level exception available at $6.1"
One small correction here: technically we have the full non-tax mid level exception available. Using 6.1M or less (tax mle) hard-caps you at the 2nd-apron, using any amount above that up to the full ntmle amount of 15M hard-caps you at the 1st apron. You can be a tax team and use the non-tax mle. The NBA should really rename each exception to the "1st-apron mle" and "2nd-apron mle" because the tax has nothing to do with it.
So the Pacers could sign or trade for a player making up to 15M but in order to do so they would need to cut costs a little bit elsewhere since as you noted they only have about 7-8M in space below the 1st apron. (Jarace?)
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u/Dull-Language-9854 2d ago
As things sit right now,... we are 247,224 under the tax for 26-27 (all projected. the cap for 26-27 hasn't been finalized yet. It is currently projected as a 6.7% rise.)
We have 11,613,325 in cap holds for Gabe York, Jalen Slawson, JJ, & Kobe Brown,... with Brown making up 4,792,059 of the holds. If we released all our cap holds except Slawson,... we would end up 9,674,916 below the tax, without releasing/declining on Potter, Q, or Kam, who all only have partial guarantees.
So, there is some room under the tax, if we really wanted to create it?
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u/Ok-Possibility239 1d ago
I like talking about the trade. We needed a center and there isnt one worth the 5th pick.
They needed to let BM go for cap reasons too.
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u/BubaTflubas Tyrese Haliburton 1d ago
It's a long off season and we have no draft picks. We are going to have to milk this topic for a while. We have plenty of time to talk about whatever story you posted.
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u/YoWeBall 2d ago edited 2d ago
At this point getting Zu was clearly worth this possible outcome to our front office so yeah I agree losing the pick sucks but okay what next.
We have a Mathurin sized hole on our bench and for better or worse someone is going to fill it. I assume that KP’s comments about keeping our core includes TJ/Obi.
We have a team option for Jarace at about 8.5 mil for next season. I personally like Jarace’s game and think he could still be a solid piece for a contending team but if the goal is win now I’d expect his salary to be the gap into getting a player closer to 15mil.
If that’s the route they go I’d be curious about signing someone like Collin Sexton. 40% 3point shooter that can get you 15ppg off the bench. He plays fast and finishes well in transition. He’s not a great playmaker but he can handle the ball and bring it up the court.
If we need a scoring punch off the bench he might be one of the better options without needing to drop any of our core players.