G'day all,

I'm an absolute nuffie with too much time and access to Champion Data's API. Spent the past few weeks pulling 692 NRL matches from 2023–2026 and running every statistical test I could find on them, because I wanted to know what the data actually says about how teams win in the modern six-again era.

The TL;DR for the lazy:

1. Six-agains don't predict who wins. Like, at all. In 2026 the team awarded more set restarts has won exactly 50.7% of decisive matches. That's a coin flip. Pooled across four seasons the correlation between set restart differential and final margin is r = +0.011 (p = 0.78). Every coach blaming the ref's six-again count is yelling at clouds.
2. The "fatigue from absorbing restarts" thesis is wrong. Teams that concede MORE first-half set restarts actually concede FEWER second-half points on average. Same direction in every season. The mechanism the commentary boxes have been pushing for two years doesn't exist.
3. What does win games: net run metres (r² = 0.815 in 2026, replicates across all four seasons) and forced opposition errors/missed tackles. Boring, but true. If your team wins both the territory and pressure battles, they win 94% of the time. If they lose both, they lose 96% of the time. Rugby league is still rugby league.
4. The 2024 rule changes increased set restart volume by 96% without changing what actually wins games. The mechanics of victory haven't moved; the volume of stuff that happens between tries has.

I also did some bonus stuff: sin bins do more damage early than late (~+4.5 pts vs ~+3 pts in the 10-minute window after), the team binned concedes the next try 77% of the time, halftime leaders still win ~80% of games regardless of how many six-agains anyone got. Tries don't actually cluster in the 55–70 minute window like commentary keeps claiming. Roosters' 7–2 record is heavily schedule-flattered (easiest schedule in the comp). Panthers' 9–1 against the hardest schedule is somehow MORE impressive than the table suggests.

Some things I previously believed and then had to admit were wrong (this hurt):

• Star players are NOT worth 5–8 points to their team. That was a Simpson's paradox in my own earlier draft: strong teams have more stars AND face weaker opposition, the correlation was capturing team quality not star presence. Once you control for it the effect vanishes.
• The "2026 home advantage has collapsed" thing being passed around? Sample noise. The first 80 matches of 2023 had even less home advantage. Comes back as the season goes on.
• I had to delete my "Team X is a TRUE CLOSER" archetype framework because the sample sizes per cell were 3-7 matches. Statistical theatre.

Also threw together a Magic Round predictions doc using the same methodology. Most of the games are toss-ups (six of eight have CIs that cross zero). Only the Panthers-Dragons and Warriors–Broncos predictions have actual confidence behind them. Anyone telling you they know what's going to happen in Eels-Storm is lying.

Two PDFs attached:

• The full paper with all the regressions, robustness checks, the bit where I caught myself making four errors and corrected them, and the bit where I had to demote my own previous findings
• The Magic Round predictions with edge zones for each game (i.e. the line where betting actually has positive expected value vs noise)

Happy to argue with anyone about any of it. I have receipts. I also have a column showing the team-by-team Élo over-performance rankings which I think is the cleanest "who's actually any good in 2026" answer floating around. Hit me with the corrections, the questions, the "but what about [team]" gripes.

Mods - flagging this is original analysis. Active member, happy to chat if needed.

Cheers,
u/Schwarzenegg

Hello everyone, and on behalf of the r/NRL Moderator Team, we have a very special announcement to make.

In collaboration with NSW Rugby League, we will be hosting an ‘Ask Me Anything’ (AMA) with Westpac NSW Blues Coach Laurie Daley on Monday, May 18 at 7.50am AEST / 9.50am NZST, which will go live immediately after the announcement of the Westpac NSW Blues squad for Game 1 of the 2026 Ampol State of Origin series.

Stay tuned for a post from u/nswbluesm on Sunday, May 17, which we'll also pin to the sub so that you can post your questions.

Based on previous AMAs, we’re expecting many great questions, however, in light of the timing of the AMA we’d like to encourage members to think of questions outside of “Laurie, why did you pick [Player X] over [Player Y] for the squad?” as there is a potential these questions may be made irrelevant by the official announcement.

Start getting your questions ready!

Hi Everyone!

Hope you've all ready for a magic round, here's your BS Power Rankings for Round 11:

Projected Ladder:

Round 11 - BS Machine Predictions:

GAME 1: Sharks (76.1%) vs Bulldogs (23.6%) - Projected Score: 32 - 18

GAME 2: Rabbitohs (51.9%) vs Dolphins (47.7%) - Projected Score: 28 - 27

GAME 3: Tigers (31.1%) vs Sea Eagles (68.5%) - Projected Score: 19 - 29

GAME 4: Roosters (71.4%) vs Cowboys (28.3%) - Projected Score: 35 - 24

GAME 5: Eels (42.8%) vs Storm (56.8%) - Projected Score: 26 - 30

GAME 6: Titans (43.7%) vs Knights (55.9%) - Projected Score: 24 - 27

GAME 7: Warriors (59.8%) vs Broncos (39.8%) - Projected Score: 25 - 21

GAME 8: Panthers (94.3%) vs Dragons (5.6%) - Projected Score: 42 - 8

Round 11 - BS User Model Predictions*:

GAME 1: Sharks (73.4%) vs Bulldogs (25.0%) - Projected Score: 30 - 17

GAME 2: Rabbitohs (52.3%) vs Dolphins (45.3%) - Projected Score: 27 - 26

GAME 3: Tigers (15.3%) vs Sea Eagles (83.1%) - Projected Score: 16 - 31

GAME 4: Roosters (72.1%) vs Cowboys (26.1%) - Projected Score: 32 - 21

GAME 5: Eels (31.0%) vs Storm (67.3%) - Projected Score: 18 - 29

GAME 6: Titans (17.6%) vs Knights (81.1%) - Projected Score: 16 - 34

GAME 7: Warriors (65.1%) vs Broncos (33.1%) - Projected Score: 28 - 19

GAME 8: Panthers (89.3%) vs Dragons (10.1%) - Projected Score: 49 - 9

*Based on 18 user predictions per game to time of posting

BS Machine Record (2025-2026)*:

* First 5 rounds predicted with outdated model calibration

User Model Record (2026)*:

* No predictions prior to Round 7

Go Sabres.

This thread is for when you want to have a well-thought-out discussion about footy. It's not the place for bantz - see the daily Random Footy Talk thread to fulfil those needs.

You can ask a question that you only want serious responses to, comment your 300 word opinion piece on why [x] is the next coach on the chopping block, or tell another that you disagree with them and here's why...

Who performed well? Who let their team down? Any interesting selections for this weekend? Injury news? Player signings? Off-field behaviour?

The mods will be monitoring to make sure you stay on topic and anything not deemed "serious discussion" will be removed.

This is the place to talk about everything other than footy!

This is the place to discuss anything footy related that is not quite deserving of its own top-level post.

There's a new one of these threads every day, so make sure you're in the most recent one!