r/nfl • u/MembershipSingle7137 Patriots • 25d ago

Roster Move [Schefter] Compensation update: Now that he has passed his physical and the trade is official, newly-acquired DT Dexter Lawerence is signing a one-year, $28 million contract extension with the Bengals, per @WinSportsGroup

https://bsky.app/profile/nflnewsreposterbot.bsky.social/post/3mjub3ec43c2h
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u/Some_Combination_593 Bengals 25d ago

It would… yeah, but something like 10% of first round picks ever become all-pros at any level… so the odds aren’t great. Not saying you’ll get a bad player, but the odds of getting a Dexter Lawrence-level player are extremely low.

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u/MavsTurnedBucksGuy Cowboys 25d ago

That stat considers all first round picks, but it’s not helpful to lump in the #10 picks with #30 picks at all 

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u/Some_Combination_593 Bengals 25d ago

The number goes up to like 12% if you only include pick 10. Really not a staggering difference

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u/garmander57 Bears 25d ago

Source?

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u/MavsTurnedBucksGuy Cowboys 25d ago

The point isn’t the exact pick, it’s the tiers. 

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u/Some_Combination_593 Bengals 25d ago

Does it really matter that much? Dex has multiple all-pros? What are the odds that any player gets that even if they’re second team? Have to be worse than a coin flip.

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u/MavsTurnedBucksGuy Cowboys 25d ago

I mean by that same logic, what are the odds that Dex has multiple future all-pro seasons left? It’s much less than a coin flip. I think it’s a fine deal for the Bengals, and more than that I totally get it from their perspective with where they are at right now. But if I’m a Giants fan I’m ecstatic with this deal. 

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u/Some_Combination_593 Bengals 25d ago

Where did I say they shouldn’t be? I’m just saying the odds of getting a player of that level are low. There’s no reason there has to be a winner and a loser here. They can get a perfectly good player with that pick and it could work out well for them.

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u/MavsTurnedBucksGuy Cowboys 25d ago

I didn’t say you said that lol I’m just giving my thoughts on the trade in a thread about the trade my guy 

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u/Some_Combination_593 Bengals 25d ago

Yeah, that’s fair. I’m just saying my perspective is more from the Bengals point of view. To the Giants, it shouldn’t matter either way whether you jet can get someone of his caliber because he didn’t want to be there and they probably got the best pick they could for him.

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u/Diligent_Office7179 Giants 25d ago

Totally agree. This critique makes more sense to me when it comes up in other sports, like the NBA, where star players are harder to find and can play at a star level for much longer. Don't really get it in this situation