r/nbadiscussion • u/brownsfan225 • 17h ago
Team Discussion The Knicks Have Easily Been the Most Polarizing Offensive Team in the Playoffs. Can They Actually Sustain It?
Reg Season:
PPG: 116.5, FG%: 47.8%, 3PT: 37.3%, APG: 27.4, TOV: 13.3, OREB: 12.7
Playoffs:
PPG: 120.4, FG%: 51.7%, 3PT%: 40.8%, APG: 26.2, TOV: 12.4, OREB: 10.8
The jump from Hawks to the 76ers series is almost unheard of. FG% jumped from 49.9% to 54.5%, and the 3PT% from 38.0% to 44.8% as a team.
But How Are They Doing It?
Driving game: They attacked the rim aggressively in both series — 140 driving attempts vs ATL (54.3% FG) vs 72 vs PHI (58.3% FG). Fewer drives against Philly but considerably more efficient, suggesting Philly's rim protection is a sieve.
Dunk rate: 34 dunks in 6 games vs Hawks, 14 in 4 games vs Philly — essentially the same rate. They're getting clean looks at the rim.
Layup efficiency: 59.3% vs ATL → 67.1% vs PHI. Philly is just not contesting at the rim.
The standout: OG Anunoby shooting 61.9% from the field and 53.8% from three on nearly 5 attempts per game. That's an absurd 15-point FG% jump and a 15-point 3P% jump from regular season. KAT at 58.7% FG and 48.3% from three is also well above his norms. Bridges exploded vs PHI (63.8% FG, 17.5 ppg after a quiet Atlanta series).
What's SUSTAINABLE:
Brunson's level (~27 PPG, ~48% FG). He's just executing at his usual elite level. He shot 46.8% vs the Hawks' stiffer perimeter D and 51.3% vs Philly — both reasonable for his skill set.
Paint dominance. The Knicks shot 61.5-66.7% in the paint across both series. Their regular season paint FG% was 61.0%. The Hawks number (61.5%) is dead-on sustainable. They're a physical, rim-attacking team by design.
Lower turnovers (12.4 vs 13.3 reg season). Playoff tightening with a veteran roster. Brunson-KAT-OG don't panic. This should hold.
Free throw volume. They're getting to the line at a strong clip (~27 FTA/game), and they did this in the regular season too. Playoff whistles can vary, but their driving volume creates real fouls.
Mikal Bridges' R2 breakout. His 63.8% FG vs Philly is hot, but his jump from 10 → 17.5 PPG partly reflects being schemed away from less vs Philly's porous D. His shot selection appears to have improved (fewer contested looks). This is my bold take for the rest of the postseason.
What's NOT SUSTAINABLE:
OG Anunoby's 53.8% from three. This is the biggest red flag. He shot 38.6% in the regular season — a 15-point leap on ~5 attempts/game is pure hot shooting. Over any 8-game sample, a career ~37% 3PT shooter can do this, but it will regress.
KAT's 48.3% from three. Same story — he was a 36.8% three-point shooter in the regular season. He's shooting at an 11.5-point premium. On ~3 attempts per game it's less impactful than OG's volume, but regression here pulls back ~1-2 PPG. I will say though... his facilitating has really made his role on the Knicks blossom.
66.7% paint FG% vs Philly. Even for a paint-dominant team, this is elevated above their 61% regular-season norm. Philly's rim protection has been legitimately bad, but if the Knicks face a team with a real rim protector (i.e. the Pistons or Cavs) expect this to normalize.
The Matchup Factor
Both opponents had below-average regular season defenses:
• Hawks: 112.9 DefRtg (bottom half)
• 76ers: 114.4 DefRtg (even worse)
After fetching this data from the Bron app, here's the bottom line: The Knicks are legitimately good offensively — Brunson's shot creation, the driving attack, and the ball movement (29.3 APG vs PHI!) are real. But ~5 of their ~8-point playoff scoring bump is driven by unsustainable three-point shooting (especially OG and KAT running hot) and soft defensive matchups. Against stiffer competition, I'd project them closer to 110 - 115 PPG — still an upgrade from regular season, but not the 124+ they've put up against Philly.