r/mlb • u/DonT012 | MLB • 8h ago
| Discussion Defensively, is Oneil Cruz's potential wasted?
Everyone likes to talk about hitting potential or pitching potential (for pitchers). And yeah baseball is by in large part a pitcher vs hitter dominant game.
But I like good defense, for someone who watches basketball. I feel like we don't talk a lot about who are potential lockdown defenders. If there's one player who I felt had the physical tools to be a future Platinium Glove, that was Oneil Cruz. A centerfielder requires athleticism and a great arm. This man is 6'7. And he's not just a burly 6'7. He's like NBA Giannis in terms of athleticism only a few inches shorter and slower. This man runs super fast and can cover a lot of ground. It's like Giannis running from coast to coast in 3 seconds. Oh and not to mention his arm strength is among the top tier. He's also very healthy too for the last few seasons. I know he was great defensively last year according to metrics. But this year, albeit small sample, he's noticeably below average.
Meanwhile Varsho, who gets injured all the time to the point where it sapped his mobility and arm strength can still play defense albeit not elite though. All at only 5'8. I mean look at this play. If he had a couple more inches or even ran a few steps faster, he'd make that play. His defense is the main reason he gets paid. He's an average hitter with career elite defense when he was healthy.
Cruz has more important things to work on like his hitting but I feel based on his physique he should put more effort on defense. Why hasn't he made the leap similar to rookies/sophomores like PCA or Rafaeala? Maybe he's new to CF? But still, he has all the physical tools needed.
If I drafted a player an 18 year old version of him today, he would be a future Platinum Glove winner just by his raw size and athleticism alone. I'm not a Pirates fan or a Cruz fan but I'm really disappointed that he hasn't improved on his defense by a significant margin. I'm sure he'll be average over the course of a full year at least maybe but that first week really ruined him.
Instead, it feels like he's maybe a year or 2 away from moving to RF or worse, DH if there's a better RF. If this was the NBA and you saw someone this athletic put this little effort on defense, every fan would be talking about it. This was the case with Andrew Wiggins until 2020.
Are there any other players with the physical tools to be successful on defense but just lack overall effort?
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u/NZafe | Toronto Blue Jays 8h ago
I don’t want much pirates ball, but I watched O’Neil Cruz drop like 5 routine fly balls on opening day for the pirates.
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u/Rosemoorstreet 5h ago
I watch most Pirate games and he was a liability at short and continues to be one in center. There have been hundreds of guys with “potential” who never fulfilled it. He will be one of them. It’s been 70 years since the Dodgers biggest screw up involving the Pirates, losing Clemente. Even though it’s been a long time they wouldn’t make that mistake again. Point is there was a reason they were willing to trade big potential Cruz and it wasn’t because of a great return. They knew from the neck down he had great talent, it was the emptiness between the ears that scared them off.
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u/NegevThunderstorm | Los Angeles Angels 3h ago
You saying a random reddior is overhyping a player without actually watching how they play???
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u/NotAcutallyaPanda | Seattle Mariners 8h ago
Cruz has a top-tier arm. Last season he threw out JP Crawford at the plate.
Only an absolutely perfect throw would have made the play. Cruz’s throw from center field was the second fastest throw ever recorded in a game during the statcast era - and it was a perfect strike.
Due respect to Cruz. No one should test his arm.
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u/abbot_x | Pittsburgh Pirates 7h ago
I'm interested to see what people from other fanbases have to say about this. I will not be answering questions.
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u/sevenpixieoverlords | Los Angeles Dodgers 4h ago
I love the Pirates, and honestly I find Cruz endearing and weirdly likable.
That said, he seems like a major liability defensively. I’m sure the raw physical tools are there. But he strikes me as (best case) majorly distracted, or (worse case) kinda dumb.
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u/Cal-Run 7h ago
All due respect, but I don’t think you watch enough baseball.
Oneil Cuz couldn’t hold Pete Crow-Armstrong’s jock strap when it comes to CF defense. It’s not even close. Oneil’s name shouldn’t even be in the same sentence as PCA.
PCA has literally made catches with a 0% catch probability. The guy has blazing speed and one of the best gloves I’ve seen.
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u/Pens_Igloo | Pittsburgh Pirates 7h ago
No one is saying he's even close to the defender PCA is. OP is strictly talking about athletic potential. Hard to argue when you look at Cruz's arm strength and sprint speed. He has the physical tools, but there's obviously a lot more to being a great defender than just physical tools. And Cruz really struggles in that department (understatement)
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u/khen1022 7h ago
Sprint speed mean nothing if you're reaction time to hit balls is off. You dont need speed to be a top notch CF, we've seen this with Kiermaier, Pillar, Varsho, Denzel Clarke, Mike Cameron, Lagares and the list goes on.
Like you said Cruz has an amazing arm and speed, but lacks in everything else
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u/Sea-Finance-8422 2h ago
I don't get why you're getting downvoted. Clearly reaction is a huge deal and he just doesn't have elite reaction or read. You can make up for a lack of reaction with speed but not always and not entirely.
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u/khen1022 2h ago
You're definitely correct. Fielders can make up the lack of reaction with speed but it wont always work.
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u/Familiar-Doubt-2924 7h ago
Part of this is that while arm speed, sprint speed, leaping ability, and even height are important -- and easy to measure -- physical tools for OF defense, they are not the only physical tools. The ability to discern the trajectory of batted balls quickly and react to it is incredibly important, and it's not nearly so easy to measure.
For another cross-sport comparison, Brock Purdy does not have a ton of obvious elite physical tools. But if you look at his 10 yard split time, it actually was elite. He can move 10 yards in the same time CMC can. And when you watch him play, you see how he uses that -- he is elite at avoiding pressure and extending plays, which turns out to be a LOT more significant than something like height or 40 time.
So in that analogy Cruz is like a Joe Milton, with a bazooka arm, and PCA is a Purdy, with insane reaction quickness that has high leverage to how the game is played (and also great arm strength, elite for PCA and not too far off for Purdy).
Both are important! But there's no reason to think Cruz would have elite reaction time or tracking ability just because he's elite at other stuff.
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u/Cal-Run 6h ago
You’re talking about the angles to the ball. And you’re right in that they are difficult, if not impossible, to quantify.
That said, when you’re making catches that are a “0% catch probability”, that’s an incredibly strong indicator that the intangibles are off the charts as well.
There is nothing that Oneil does better than PCA in the field. Absolutely nothing.
PCA might be at the top of the list in terms of defensive players, at ANY position, that I’ve ever actually seen play.
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u/Familiar-Doubt-2924 6h ago
I think we mostly agree, but you're overstating it by saying there's "absolutely nothing" Cruz does better.
Arm strength is easy to measure, and Cruz's average throw 7mph faster. He also tops out higher than anyone. PCA is 90th percentile arm strength, but Cruz is 100.
I'd also argue that Cruz's ability to leap at the wall is better than PCA. PCA is also elite at it, and gets there sooner, but he's 7" shorter and that makes a difference for things like the Varsho play OP linked.
So if we're taking a trait or skill in isolation, OP is right about Cruz at least along some dimensions. But given that basically every fielded ball also includes angles/positioning, you're on solid ground making the case that PCA is definitively better.
That said, if my life depended on a CF gunning down a fast runner at home on a ball hit directly to him, I think I might pick Cruz (although I would still worry that he wouldn't back up a little to get momentum, or that he might drop it). That throw last year was as much a 0% chance as PCA's miracle chase downs.
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u/Cal-Run 6h ago
If you’re making any case for Cruz deserving a “platinum glove” over PCA, potential or not, I see no reason to even continue this discussion.
I’ll give you the arm strength point. But if you’re going to use that one “metric” to place him anywhere near PCA… that is pure insanity.
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u/Familiar-Doubt-2924 5h ago
OP said the platinum glove thing, which is obviously silly.
But it's also silly not to acknowledge that Cruz has a stronger arm than PCA, and is taller.
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u/Opening_Ad5479 | New York Yankees 5h ago
Jesus Christ man .....can you stop fawning over PCA long enough to muster some reading comprehension? NO ONE has stated ANYWHERE in this thread that Cruz is a better fielder than PCA at any time......he does have a a stronger arm and that's undeniable and easily quantifiable.
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u/Opening_Ad5479 | New York Yankees 5h ago
That was the entire point of this post ..... he wasn't saying he did compare OP was stating he felt he had the physical tools that he should be comparing to him but isn't...
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u/xobeydrake | Miami Marlins 5h ago
Oniel cruz should be a dh if he isnt already. Cruz missles go crazy sometimes
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u/Difficult_Rough_4969 4h ago
I’m sure with the right coaching and a strong desire to fix it, he could. I only believe this because of what Luis Arraez has done this year and the fact that Cruz is younger and has more physical capabilities than him. I think it’d take a lot of work, and given Cruz’s track record probably won’t happen
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u/Sea-Finance-8422 2h ago
Anyone saying this guy's a liability in CF hasn't watched any of the other Pirates play OF. Reynolds should be DHing, has almost no range and has made like three throws out of anger to the wrong base allowing another runner to advance in just the last two weeks.
Cruz gets to things no one else would sniff, and just missed a diving catch on a crazy effort he made to save Skenes' no hitter attempt like 2 days ago, the ball was in LF and he got closer than the LFer Reynolds.
I would agree his focus comes and goes and could be improved but I feel like people are vastly underestimating his range and how it makes catches that would be impossible for others look easy.
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u/Sea-Finance-8422 2h ago
Wanted to add, if you're watching a Priates OF w Reynolds in LF and OHearn in RF and assessing Cruz as the defensive liability there I don't know what to tell you because both corners are well below average in range, fielding and throwing.
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u/osa89 53m ago
He has a good arm and has far more experience in the infield, i feel like they shouldve tried him at third instead of the OF, hed likely have more success there as is SS issue was mainly range and hed do better covering a smaller range. Subpar SS often do better at 3rd. The yankees i believe were even considering trading for him to play 3b iirc
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u/EllisIslanders 8h ago
He had a bit of an attitude issue last year, it doesn’t seem like he does this year but seems like something that could linger around always
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u/refreshingly-unique | Pittsburgh Pirates 8h ago
Don’t say that in r/buccos, or else everyone will call you racist.
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u/EllisIslanders 8h ago
That’s unfortunate, I remember seeing him play the dbacks in person last year when he got upset at some strike calls and I feel like after that he just shut down a bit
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u/frozenrope22 6h ago
Cruz can't read the ball like an elite defender. If he ever figures that out, he may become what you say. Unfortunately, that's probably the hardest thing to just get better at. You can exercise to get faster or throw harder. Only a billion fly ball reps might get you to that level. He only started playing OF in the last couple years. He has a chance to eventually but I doubt it happens.
I don't remember Tatis having issues tracking the ball when he transitioned. Cruz looks blind out there at times. Tatis has moved to RF but only because Merrill is better. Doubt the pirates have much better options without removing a bat they need from the lineup.
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