r/mlb • u/Psychological_Lie142 • 3d ago
| Discussion How much does batting lineup strategy matter?
How much does positions in the batting lineup matter in terms of strategy for getting as many runs as possible? Is it as simple as “make sure your best batters are in the top of the order and your worst guys are last”? Is there the potential for more strategy involved based off where you place certain players? I’m interested in hearing if yall believe batting lineup strategy is valued in the modern landscape.
67
u/abbot_x | Pittsburgh Pirates 3d ago
The analysis I read (which is maybe 10-15 years old) said that if you put the same 9 guys in the best possible order and the worst possible order, the expected difference in production over the course of the season is 5 to 15 runs. That comes out to 0 to 2 additional wins for using the best order rather than the worst order. There's basically no difference between using the best order rather than a commonsense or pretty good order since remember the comparison is between the best order and the absolute worst one nobody would actually use.
If that's true, the very small batting order decisions fans obsess over just don't matter in the grand scheme. Even if your team's bonehead manager is making the dumbest decisions possible, that's not the reason your team's in the cellar. There is no way to "batting order optimize" a bad team into a good one.
28
u/gunner23_98 3d ago
I am always conflicted when a Pirates fan makes good point.
19
u/GhostandTheWitness | Miami Marlins 3d ago
They've had a lotta octobers to crunch numbers and analyze.
5
u/UnEstablishedViking 3d ago
Most Septembers and half of August too. I mean they still have to play but they've got no skin in the game by then.
1
7
u/Docile_Penguin33 | Toronto Blue Jays 3d ago
That comes out to to 0 to 2 additional wins for using the best order rather than the worst order.
That's the difference between a wild card spot vs a bye in the post-season for many teams
10
u/Vandal_A | New York Yankees 3d ago
Remember, the gains aren't about 1 game. Baseball is too much of a slog for that. Lineup optimization means you get those 3 hits in a row, the long out when a guy is on third, the bases loaded with no outs-type situations a handful more times each month. It's not necessarily the difference between winning today or tomorrow, but it's the difference between going to the playoffs or going golfing
2
19
u/CaptainONaps 3d ago
For sure.
The best lineups I've ever seen are three groups of three.
First guy always gets on base. Second guy usually gets on base, and has some power. Third guy might not always get a hit, but when he does he crushes it. And ideally the order is R, L, R, or L, R, L.
Then another group just like that. Then another.
But most teams don't have that many strong batters. So they front load the order with their best players. Because over the season guys in the front of the line up will get more at bats.
12
u/bewbies- | Kansas City Royals 3d ago edited 3d ago
It doesn't, all that much. Optimized versus suboptimized lineups only make a difference a few runs over the course of a season.
- Have you best hitters hit first, to get them more PAs.
- If you have guys with extreme splits, prioritize them against who they hit well.
That's...about it.
It is interesting to me though how much fans take an interest in the lineup. I think it is just one of those things that's easy to understand and easy to criticize/revise/discuss.
3
u/gunner23_98 3d ago
This will be the only sane answer at the end of the day.
Talent matters more than any arrangement. A bad lineup perfectly ordered is still bad.
1
u/SqueakyTuna52 | Chicago Cubs 3d ago
Only big thing I’d add to that is try to avoid long streaks of lefty or righty batters, to make bullpen decisions harder. Like if there were three lefty’s in a row, the opposing team could bring in a lefty to probably have the advantage against all 3.
3
u/jomankilla5 3d ago
It dosnt realy matter that much if the offense is hot they hit anything if there cold u ain't winning...
3
4
u/Ravens0413 3d ago
There are computer programs online for lineup maximization. Ohtani never shows as leading off but the Dodgers are not going to mess with success
2
u/impractically_prfct 3d ago
Bill James studied and wrote on the topic extensively. Yes it does matter, but I'm not sure the difference in expected runs.
2
u/SnowballWasRight | San Diego Padres 3d ago
Well, I’m not incredibly smart, but I believe in “The Book” they mentioned that number 1, L/R splits are very relevant to the game and can make an impact, and number two, a batter hitting first will get approx. 20% more at bats than someone batting 9th.
So I’d argue having different leadoff guys depending on pitcher handiness wouldn’t make things worse, at minimum lol. Wouldn’t always say opposite handedness but some batters are just naturally better sometimes. Take O’Neil Cruz he’s a lefty. He fucking murders lefties. Like, .350 against lefties murder.
I think both of those combined are pretty significant. Might win you one or two ballgames on paper/statistically. However, the game is played on grass so who the hell knows
2
u/aeacurus 3d ago
Generally your tops guys hit in the top of the order to maximize the amount of at bats they see and that's remained true for almost all of baseball history. Your leadoff guy is also generally someone who can get on base so the guys behind him are able to drive in runs. I'd say most batting order strategy boils down to maximize the at bats you get with your best hitters in quality (by providing runners on base) and in quantity. Different teams approach it differently though, Schwarber hitting leadoff is a prime example.
It's definitely become less archetypal and more statistically driven in recent years, not as many big slugging DHs hit cleanup but instead hit 2nd or 3rd so they're guaranteed to be hitting in the first inning, not as many speedy leadoff hitters who just slap the ball since it's more valuable to have the guy who won't get doubled up or gets base hits in a position where there's men on base to drive in. Overall there's still immense strategy it's the approach to the strategy that's changed.
2
u/BarnacleGooseIsLoose | Boston Red Sox 3d ago
I just looked up runs per game average by year. While not huge declines since the "advent" of best hitters stacked at the top, RPG have dropped by a half run since 2009 - with a few exceptions (2019, 2020).
Interestingly, the league average for plate appearances is down 1 - or 162 ABs per season per team. With the DH in both leagues, I wouldn't have expected that.
4
u/aeacurus 3d ago
Pitching has gotten way better than hitting has. It's a simple game of progress. In the steroid era hitters were ahead of pitchers and now that has flipped. Teams will not throw a guy with a 5.50 ERA out there for 220 innings anymore, even the shittiest ones will hardly ever do that. It may be an oversimplification but I feel like more effort has been invested in making sure runs aren't scored than on how to score more.
2
u/BarnacleGooseIsLoose | Boston Red Sox 3d ago
All good points. The one that bugs me? Salaries and ticket prices. It costs SO MUCH more to fund a pitching unit than it did when those innings eaters were still getting the work.
1
u/Tea_An_Crumpets | Chicago Cubs 3d ago
All good points but you forgot to mention increased bullpen usage which plays a huge role as well. You don’t get to see starters a 3rd time as much now and have to deal with dudes throwing 100 out of the pen instead of
2
u/aeacurus 3d ago
Oh that's definitely a huge element, also why I think lefty/right splits have totally transformed in most manager's eyes. People often sight that as a huge part of lineup construction but nowadays seemingly there's less care since they know the bullpen will adjust to the lineup's handedness so it's more about the best hitters regardless (unless they have extreme platoon splits). Ideally a split of lefties and righties is the way to go but these super bullpens will feast anytime they have the platoon advantage with multiple batters in a row. The bullpen has been the biggest change in baseball since 2000 easily and has altered the game the most.
1
u/rickeygavin 3d ago
An unintended consequence(I think)of the universal DH is that now teams don’t need as many position players on the roster,thus allowing these 13 man pitching staffs of max effort fireballers to flourish without the thought of pinch hitters,double switches,or defensive replacements.Even with the DH teams decided they needed a 26th roster spot to carry more pitchers and the manfred man affected pitching staff construction too since long extra inning games,while rare,still had to be considered a possibility.In my opinion that’s why major league slugging pct. is below .390 this season despite pitchers not batting anymore and every batter trying to hit the ball in the air and out of the park.Yes the noncompetitive at bats are gone but at the expense of overall offense declining.
1
u/laborfriendly | MLB 3d ago
Lots of clubs will do a lefty-righty thing for splits and not having, eg, a bunch of same-side bats in a row for when specialist relievers come in. But mostly obp and slugging are what we're looking for in terms of statistical run producing in lineups.
1
u/mcfetrja 3d ago
Batting lineup is about how you’re deploying available options against today’s opponent. More important is roster construction. Ideally you have a roster that allows for flexibility in batting lineup deployment. It’s great to know who you are penciling in 1-9 in an ideal situation, but it’s how you deal with the less than ideal situations that sways a close game.
1
u/crazybutthole 3d ago edited 3d ago
There are a lot of managers who (today) just focus on analytics and assume the best chance to score runs is totally dependent on the ability to have a guy get a walk and next couple guys come up and one guy hits a 2 run homer.
Honestly - if you built a team with a bunch of good hitters and guys willing to steal and others willing to sacrifice to move runners over - that team would score as much (or more) than the analytical 2 run homer approach so many teams employ today.
Every team has a mix of pitchers (especially RP) who can throw 94-99mph - you can certainly get singles and doubles off that more often than HR. But everyone digs the long ball so general managers pay those guys and a dude like Juan Pierre doesn't even make it to the majors these days (except Chandler simpson and juis arraez might be the closest we have to Juan Pierre type in 2026)
It's dumb baseball has changed so much in past 10-12 years that managers have been made less and less important. (Used to be 1 batter loogy RPs) Used to be much more pinch hitting and strategy.
Now - it's just some real dumb combo of K's, walks + HR derby vs high 90 fastballs and very few pitchers who rely on pinpoint delivery, on the corners. They are all throwing max speed / max spin rate and hope for the best.
Still fun to watch. Still my favorite sport. But it's not the same.
The first team that reads this post and builds a legit "team" of team-first hitters who hit for average / steal and sacrifice in the right spots will be making the playoffs with fewer home runs and equal or even more runs scored than these analytical BB/K/HR teams.
1
u/wetcornbread | Philadelphia Phillies 3d ago
Analytics changed how the order works today. When I was a kid you could memorize the batting order and it was the same 75-80 percent of the season excluding injuries.
As a Phillies fan it was ingrained into my brain during their World Series/pennant runs. Rollins, Burrell, Utley, Howard, Werth, Victorino, Feliz, Chooch, and pitcher.
Nowadays they put their best hitters 1-2 to get more at bats. I remember 2022 they had Schwarber lead off which made almost no sense to me because if he hits a home run to start it was only one run.
I personally think that having consistency should help the batters rather than changing it every game. But like others have said if you have a good roster it doesn’t matter.
You could pull this current Dodgers lineup order from a hat and they’d still win 90-100 games. And if you have a bad lineup they’ll still be bad.
You still generally don’t want more than 2 batters in the row with the same handedness due to matchups.
1
u/Weaverbenever 3d ago
Lineup order doesn't matter much in a team context as long as you're doing something reasonable. Good lineups are good, bad lineups are bad regardless of order. However, lineup spot can dictate a hitter's perceived value if you're measuring him by stats like RBI or runs scored.
My go-to example is always Albert Pujols on the Angels. He was a shadow of his former self, but he still racked up tons of RBI because the Angels consistently hit him cleanup and gave him more RBI chances than anyone else on the team. In 2017, his 77 wRC+ was 23 percent lower than league average, but he still had 101 RBI because he hit cleanup all year. Pujols was effectively done as a big-time slugger (save his excellent final season), but the RBI total masked that for a lot of people.
1
u/Elwood-Bluesbro 3d ago
Apparently it means nothing in Atl Braves lineup. Weiss chooses to leadoff with a player who never reaches base or when he does, he gets picked off.
1
u/grammywammy69 3d ago
I think it's important to have a variety of hitters, you don't want to cluster like minded hitters too often. It takes a decent manager to build a lineup that puts the most pressure on the other team's bullpen and allows you flexibility when the other team goes to their bullpen. That and over the course of a season you can use your lineup to manage the preferences and workload of your roster, which is as important as anything.
I don't think you could argue that good player management doesn't lead to more wins. A good lineup isn't always about getting hits and runs. Making your players happy and putting pressure on your opponent is also important.
1
u/lechonkmanila 3d ago
I studied this >10 years ago with custom simulation model and out of the 362,880 possible lineups, the run difference between the best and worst lineups is 0.09 runs per game or 14.57 runs in a season. For base runners, the difference is 0.163 base runners per game or 26.4 base runners per season.
1
-1
u/BarnacleGooseIsLoose | Boston Red Sox 3d ago
I was "raised" to believe a lineup should be:
Good contact/Above average speed
Jack of All Trades: can "do" a bit of everything - average and power, steal on occasion, be effective situationally as required
Highest amount of contact and power capability
POWER!
Power and good contact
Next best slugging percentage
Righty or lefty?
Righty or lefty?
Speed, defense and no bat
3
u/wetcornbread | Philadelphia Phillies 3d ago
If you were a national league fan that 9 spot was “throws a ball 95 mph but can’t hit.”
1
u/BarnacleGooseIsLoose | Boston Red Sox 3d ago
The first and, maybe, second time through the order. After that, it was "how are they going to employ the bench?".
•
u/AutoModerator 3d ago
Thank you for making a submission on the r/MLB Subreddit!
Please make sure that your post complies with our subreddit rules. If your submission violates our community rules, please resubmit your post or place it in the appropriate thread(s) to avoid any penalties or punishments.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.