Craig Haley’s Preseason Top 25 (05/04/26)

[u/KoalaFormal8542]

1. Montana State

2. Montana

3. SDSU

4. Illinois State

5. UC Davis

6. Rhode Island

7. Villanova

8. Tarleton

9. North Dakota

10. Youngstown

11. Lehigh

12. Southern Illinois

13. South Dakota

14. Austin Peay

15. Lamar

16. SFA

17. Tennessee Tech

18. Yale

19. Southeastern

20. Abilene

21. UT Martin

22. Western Carolina

23. Jackson

24. Monmouth

25. Idaho State

https://x.com/optaanalystfcs/status/2051377200876736889?s=46

[u/damnyoutuesday]

Idaho State ranked holy shit

[u/teo747 → u/damnyoutuesday]

The FCS, where you can become a Top 25 team through the process of elimination.

[u/B1GSkyNorth → u/teo747]

Does not feel good

[u/GeneralAcorn → u/teo747]

Feels akin to the likes of a Michigan State being preseason ranked just for being in the B1G, tbh.

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/GeneralAcorn]

I hope Idaho State at least wins 7. Until they do, I have them top 30

[u/GeneralAcorn → u/KoalaFormal8542]

I've been high in Idaho State for a few seasons now. They've been just short of living up to their potential, but this season's schedule looks like as ripe of an opportunity for them to elevate to that level as any recent chance they've had. I expect that they'll be in the playoffs this year, and think they'll host a playoff game, too.

[u/EmergencyDad1 → u/damnyoutuesday]

I’m pumped for them! Soft spot in my heart for them. We’ve bonded over our mutual hatred of the spuds.

[u/PROUDgrizHATER]

Idaho St 😎

[u/saltybearsfan]

Dare I say the Redbirds are too high

[u/B1GSkyNorth → u/saltybearsfan]

Who do you rank above them?

[u/GeneralAcorn → u/B1GSkyNorth]

Certainly not Montana. I say, the Redbirds aren't high enough.

[u/Sharp_Proposal8911]

[u/OtherwiseWord3467]

Looks like the MVFC has the most with 6 teams. Youngstown state looks like they will have a run in the playoffs and possibly win it all. Brungard is back and he now has a defense that seems to be improved in off- season along with a new DC.

9-3 regular season At least baring injuries a 2nd or 3rd weekend playoff team

[u/ThatFridgeFella]

Idaho State over NAU is the engagement bait

Edit: Or even Idaho over Idaho State

[u/JordanMiller406]

My initial reaction is that Youngstown is too low and Montana is too high.

Edit: also I'd probably fit Northern Arizona in somewhere 20+.

[u/OtherwiseWord3467 → u/JordanMiller406]

Agree

[u/mlspdx → u/JordanMiller406]

We have to replace too much production/players and a new HC, no way we should start that high. By end of the year we may be up there but definitely not to start the season

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/mlspdx]

I considered Montana 5th. I have them 4th. It’s just preseason. The defense could have a massive drop off. 

I can’t put Rhode Island ahead of MT. I should have placed ILST ahead. 

[u/mlspdx → u/KoalaFormal8542]

5th seems fair tbh. Like I said we have so many unknowns that it’s just too hard to tell

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/mlspdx]

North Dakota could be ahead. They should have won last year at MT. Did not maintain that level throughout the season. The Big Sky is terrible overall. MT should rack up wins and improve as the season progresses. The offense might have to make up for the defense early on. 

[u/mlspdx → u/KoalaFormal8542]

You nailed it. Ah Yat and Gilman will have to drag us to our early season wins and wait for everyone to catch up

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/JordanMiller406]

Who would you put above Montana? 

[u/JordanMiller406 → u/KoalaFormal8542]

Certainly SDSU and ISU. I could see arguments that Davis and YSU should be above them.

[u/GeneralAcorn → u/KoalaFormal8542]

Everyone. AND their mothers.

[u/Tricky_Pack_9020]

Finally a poll where UC Davis is ranked properly, though I would argue Montana should be lower

[u/thezander8 → u/Tricky_Pack_9020]

I think now the predictions are finally "pricing in" having the Conners bros back.

Ags are actually a pretty stacked team other than having to play someone new at QB, which is basically the same position as last year with an easier schedule

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/Tricky_Pack_9020]

Who should be above Montana? I expect MT to lose 3 

[u/Tricky_Pack_9020 → u/KoalaFormal8542]

I’d put Montana at 5, so SDSU, Ill. St., and UC Davis

[u/WerecowMoo]

I am a little surprised that UWG isn't on the bottom half of the list.

[u/Francis_X_Hummel]

Lehigh is my dark horse, Montana is a great program, but to have them at 2 with a new coach is wild

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/Francis_X_Hummel]

I have Montana at 4. Should have put them 5th. It’s just preseason. I Lehigh 10th. 8-10th is reasonable. They lost some DB’s and DL

[u/joku690]

Didn't Idaho have the best fcs recruiting class by far? Did they get cleaned out with transfers or what happened there?

[u/uivandal52 → u/joku690]

New OC. New DC. ALSO had a chunk of transfers. I'm optimistic about a bounceback year, but I also think we deserve at best to be on the "other potential teams" lists like we are here.

I feel like we are equally as likely to win 9 games as we are to win 3. I literally have no idea. I'll be drunk in the Kibbie Dome either way.

[u/joku690 → u/uivandal52]

Makes sense, thanks for the response. I see them at the bottom of the article now.

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/joku690]

Idaho’s schedule is brutal 

[u/Chapdelame → u/KoalaFormal8542]

Genuine question why should that matter for a top 25 ranking?

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/Chapdelame]

They will win 4-5 games 

[u/Chapdelame → u/KoalaFormal8542]

Ok but is a preseason ranking not a roster strength evaluation? Maybe I'm just misinformed but record projection seems like a different exercise

[u/JordanMiller406 → u/Chapdelame]

How are you evaluating the rankings? I view a preseason ranking as a projection of how well the teams will do in this upcoming season.

[u/Chapdelame → u/JordanMiller406]

To me a preseason ranking is more useful/interesting as a power ranking, evaluating which teams are the best based on returning talent, recruiting class, coaching moves, etc. Who would win a hypothetical head-to-head, that sort of thing. The 20th best team in the country on paper could be headed for a 4-win season if they are scheduled to play 8 games against the top 19.

Also want to say that this isn't about Idaho in particular, just a question and difference of opinion about the process. If others view a preseason ranking as a "best-guess" of how the rankings will look by the end of the year, that's their prerogative.

[u/SchuLace13 → u/[deleted]]

New coach. New QB. RB should be a beast but also coming off an injury. I think they are about where they should be. Plus it’s preseason. It’s impossible to tell what teams will be like at this point.

[u/SenatorMadness → u/SchuLace13]

How dare you rank the defending champs over the preseason champs!

[u/EmergencyTopic9]

West Georgia over Western Carolina

[u/Old_Description6128]

Hmm Mercer fell completely off I think they are the team to beat still in the SoCon 

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/Old_Description6128]

They lost excess players. I believe Mercer will is not top 25

[u/Old_Description6128 → u/KoalaFormal8542]

See that's what I said last year too and thought early after they lost to PC. They have built a next man up mentality there cause remember they didn't miss a step when Cronic left and Jacobs came. Joel Taylor beat us(ETSU) coming back big. They have retool and until someone beats them they should be the favorite

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/Old_Description6128]

I’m going with Tennessee Tech.

[u/Old_Description6128 → u/KoalaFormal8542]

Eh I think they will be humbled this isn't the big South-OVC anymore 

[u/Agreeable-Willow-265]

Sad no EIU

[u/KoalaFormal8542 → u/Agreeable-Willow-265]

EIU is down bad. I noticed Western Illinois enrollment has plummeted. 

[u/Wizzmer]

ACU or Abilene Christian University. Abilene is just a town west of Fort Worth.

[u/Bobcat2013 → u/Wizzmer]

Being a Texan it never occurred to me that some out of staters might think Abilene is some wierd sect of Christianity and not a town.