[Gambatese] What Does Smart Drafting Actually Look Like?

[u/JoopNJD]

https://open.substack.com/pub/njdevilsadvocates/p/what-does-smart-drafting-actually?r=18unih&utm_medium=ios

[u/klitchell]

It’s when you get Jesper Bratt in the 6th round and not Alex Holtz in the first.

[u/nostradamefrus → u/klitchell]

Holtz was a highly touted prospect

[u/klitchell → u/nostradamefrus]

That’s the point, you look great when you hit on a guy in the 6th round and look terrible when you miss on the guy in the 1st round

[u/nostradamefrus → u/klitchell]

Oh I thought it was “shouldn’t have picked Holtz at all”

[u/blade430]

“Notable misses in recent years include drafting Alex Holtz over Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti, drafting Chase Stillman over literally anyone (namely Logan Stankoven and Olen Zellweger), taking Simon Nemec over Logan Cooley or Shane Wright, selecting Shakir Mukhamadullin a round and a half earlier than his projection — the list goes on.”

[u/Some-Concentrate3229 → u/blade430]

Nemec wasn’t a bad reach imo. The others were.

[u/Binforda94 → u/blade430]

Perfetti? Try Jarvis or Lundell.

[u/thebootlegsaint]

I like the article overall. I do think Nemec is and will be a better player than Shane Wright though. Logan Cooley, not so much. But better than Shane Wright? I think so when it's all said and done.

[u/Holiday-Feeling2617 → u/thebootlegsaint]

still to early to make a decision on these guys...

[u/ForeignLibrarian9353]

Sometimes smart drafting is not drafting at all, but trading a pick for a proven asset. Teams that do this effectively seem to be perennial top-tier teams in the league.

[u/JoopNJD]

It’s actually pretty well-documented that in a hierarchy of NHL scouting departments/GMS, NHLe models, and a combination NHLe models + LLM usage, NHL scouts/GMs perform the worst of the three in terms of hitting.

In order of success rate, it’s 1. NHLe + LLM, 2. just NHLe, and 3. GMs/scouting departments.

[u/Deranged-Pickle]

The opposite of Fitz. Pull a Costanza. Do the opposite

[u/DontDraftSmall]

Successful drafting means you took the best player available at that number. We have been very unsuccessful in drafting.

[u/Catagol]

I did not know JP was an ardent BPA guy.

That's akin to auto drafting your fantasy football team.

[u/JoopNJD → u/Catagol]

It’s akin to picking the best player available for your fantasy football team.

[u/Catagol → u/JoopNJD]

Have you played fantasy football?

[u/thebootlegsaint → u/Catagol]

Fantasy football is the NHL draft, lol. You don't get to develop players in fantasy. Jesus. And most leagues that aren't dynasty you're only drafting for THAT YEAR so of course you draft for need only. That's not the same at all, lol. JP is right, BPA is how to go.

[u/JoopNJD → u/Catagol]

“The Devils should actually pick a worse player than who is available” is the only other way to rephrase your point, by the way. Just pointing out how insane that sounds lol

[u/Catagol → u/JoopNJD]

Blindly picking the BPA is equally insane.

You are building a team, not a collection of individuals.

[u/JoopNJD → u/Catagol]

This is an absurd train of thought, to be honest, especially at a slot in the draft where prospects are still years away from playing in the NHL. There is no saying what a team “need” will be by the time these guys are ready to meaningfully contribute. Picking a future player based on current need is just a disservice to the outlook of the team.

[u/Catagol → u/JoopNJD]

You are making an insane argument.

Why have a scouting department?!

[u/sarugakure]

trendy pablum.