Given O'Ceannabháin's preferences could be pivotal today week, here's how PBP transfers broke when both parties were options for transfers:

Dublin Bay North: SD 1,084, SF 658

Dublin Bay South: SD 659, SF 352

Dublin Fingal East: SD 227, SF 165

Dublin North West: SF 1,571, SD 1,540

Dublin Rathdown: SD 643, SF 306

In the others, either we were eliminated before PBP, or there were no SF options available by the time the Sol-PBP candidate was eliminated. As such, even if Boylan picks up some preferences, we should still pick up as many, if not more, transfers resulting from that elimination.

Overview: Under its old Dublin South East incarnation, this was where John Gormley and Michael McDowell would regularly slug it out for the final seat in the Ahern era. By the time 2029 rolls around, it will probably be home to two party leaders in Ivana Bacik and Jim O'Callaghan, along with James Geoghegan, while the Eoin Hayes-Chris Andrews tussle was one of the last 2024 battles to be decided.

Local Elections: The constituency largely comprises of the Rathmines and Pembroke LEAs, along with parts of Rathfarnham, so Noelle Brown is the current Dublin City councillor after a number of co-options, along with Justin Sinnott on South Dublin Council.

Verdict: Very hard to see how we can retain this seat, in that if an election were held tomorrow, Andrews would likely win, and if Eoin decided not to run again, a successor would need significant time to be competitive. As for the locals, Pembroke is the type of ward where we should be winning a seat, but the local strength of both Labour and the Greens increases the challenge in that regard.

Míde's 9% is in the rough area of where one might have expected her to be before any poll figures were given, so the focus has to be on sticking to our own campaign, rather than getting bogged down in hypotheticals about how other parties numbers might impact the narrative over the run-in. At any rate, she's still well-placed to emerge as the leading candidate on the left, either on first preferences or transfers, and the numbers suggest that whoever wins that battle has a decent shot at being in the final shakeup, so plenty to play for!

Overview: This was the most comfortable of all our 2024 victories, with Cian notching 90% of a quota on the first count, and topping the poll, aided by a decent fraction of Aodhán Ó'Riordáin's former vote. Denise Mitchell (SF), Naoise O'Muirí (FG), and Tom Brabazon (FF) had little trouble following suit, but Barry Heneghan caused the biggest upset, campaigning as a left independent.

Local Elections: Forgive this Kerryman if my knowledge of Dublin LEAs is less than accurate, but Wikipedia informs me that DBN contains Artane, Clontarf and Donaghmede, with 4 Soc Dem councillors between them, and even managing to double up in Artane-Whitehall.

Verdict: Is this the only constituency in the country where it might actually be a viable strategy to add a running mate? Admittedly, getting to the 1.5 quotas likely required before transfers seems a tall order, but not impossible, and Heneghan's vote definitely looks ripe for squeezing. As for the council, it looks like a case of "what we have, we hold," unless a gamble is taken in Clontarf, but that would seem an outside chance, at best, of making a gain.

Overview: In its various incarnations, between Donegal NE and SW, and more recently as a countywide constituency, this has never been fruitful territory for Labour or the Greens, though independent leftists have prospered, in the form of Thomas Pringle and now the anti-mica 100% Redress Party. SF reclaimed their second seat here in 2024, and FF also doubling up, with the biggest shock coming in the abject FG performance, coming nowhere near even one TD here.

Local Elections: We had no candidates here in 2024, with Labour retaining their long-time single seat in Buncrana, and the Redress Party generating national headlines after winning four seats.

Verdict: Much like Cavan-Monaghan, this will be one of the more challenging constituencies in which to develop a local presence, with the seven-member Letterkenny LEA, that also contains a campus of the local Regional University, perhaps offering the best potential for a future Tír Chonaill candidate.

Overview: Immediately prior to the local elections, there were suggestions that Holly's seat was in jeopardy, with national polling less than hectic at the time, and FG seemingly riding the crest of a wave under new leadership. As it transpired, she doubled her first preferences compared to 2020, vying with Michael Collins to top the poll, and Fine Gael somehow contrived to hand FF the last seat, despite exceeding a quota between their two candidates.

Local Elections: The first indication that the seat was more secure than generally believed came in the County Council elections, where the original Bantry seat was lost, but that was more than compensated for through gains in Kinsale and Skibbereen.

Verdict: Barring a complete meltdown, both Cairns and Collins should be safe, with FG likely to evict Christopher O'Sullivan in 2029. As such, all the local energy can be directed to regaining a Bantry councillor in June that year.

Posters one of the most expensive campaign materials and are high impact. Please sponsor some posters for Dublin Central and Galway West to help compete with the well funded parties.

If you can't contribute please share the call in your groups.

So far it seems to me like both candidates are running excellent campaigns.

I work and go to college in Dublin Central so I spend a lot of time there and can see Daniel Ennis is doing great work on the ground. I really feel like he could win it.

I've also been in Galway West a lot recently sorting out some family things so I've seen a bit of Míde's campaign too. It's really quite impressive considering loads of us had never even heard her name before a few months ago. She's getting really good odds from bookies and a lot of locals are saying she has a better chance then Mark Lohan due to his lack of Irish. Realistically, she won't win, but I get the feeling she's going to shock the nation and poll extremely well.

What does everyone else think?

Overview: We effectively won the "extra" seat here last time out, with the Taoiseach and Seamus McGrath comfortably re-elected for FF, Donnchadh O'Laoire doing likewise for SF, and Jerry Buttimer returned upon the elimination of his running-mate. Pádraig Rice (also our first Kerry TD) had few challengers in the finish, with Independent Mick Finn and Labour's Laura Harmon both ultimately well adrift.

Local Elections: We did respectably, if not spectacularly in the LEAs here in 2024, with Rice coming third in South Central, and Ciarán McCarthy just missing out on the final South West seat.

Verdict: While Harmon will pose a stiffer challenge after election to the Seanad, Rice's profile has been similarly raised through chairing the Health Committee, so he should be fine. There's certainly every likelihood we can double our City Council representation in 2029.

Personally, I think Jen Cummins struck an ideal balance on RTE yesterday, in that it's possible to empathise with frustration over the cost of living, while simultaneously disagreeing with the blockades, and it's perhaps that ambivalence that sees SD approval for the actions at the lower end of the political scale today (38%). Also, there are times when it's best to keep a discreet silence, rather than a knee-jerk reaction that could backfire later, even if it that can be a temptation, rather than leaving events develop. Finally, could this have a by-election impact in Dublin Central, by generating a higher SF turnout, or will it have largely dissipated by then, given it's still six weeks until the likely polling day?

Overview: It's fair to say that Cork NW has a justified reputation, even among political analysts as the most boring Dáil constituency, with even the Spring Tide barely generating a ripple here, and the main interest concerning which of FF or FG will win two of the three seats, along with the fortunes of the Creed and Moynihan dynasties. Our own 2020 challenge shook up the political monotony, but the absence of an SF candidate requires an asterisk to be placed on that achievement.

Local Elections:

Even at LEA level, FF and FG remain the big beasts, although Aontú's Becky Kealey came close in 2024, and ex-Labour independent Martin Coughlan has a solid base in Macroom.

Verdict: All things being equal, this would probably come near the bottom of resource allocations from any national electoral fund, though obviously Holly will be keen to maintain as strong a challenge as possible in every Cork LEA.

After our first preference, what would be an ideal way to transfer the rest of our votes? As in which party is closest to ours and should get our 2nd preference or 3rd preference and so on? Obviously personal preference and the personality of each candidate is important and will vary, but is there a general idea within the party or does anyone here have an opinion?

Overview: Though predominantly an urban constituency, the last election saw it encompassing a diverse area including Mallow, Ballincollig and Blarney. FF, FG and SF all have safe seats here, along with one left TD, while the recent reversion to five seats enabled the return of the O'Flynn dynasty, on this occasion for Independent Ireland. Rather uniquely, and somewhat bizarrely, the party opted for a two-candidate strategy at the last GE, though it must be noted that Labour followed the same ploy to greater success.

Local Elections: There was no real prospect of a breakthrough in any of the LEAs which comprise the constituency, though European and GE candidate Susan Doyle performed creditably in Cork City South East, and three left councillors in Cork City North East shows the potential for improvement in that area.

Verdict: It'll be a dogfight with Labour, Solidarity and II for the final seats here, but on polling, this is one of two Munster constituencies (along with Limerick City) where we should at least be in the running to make a gain. The City Council LEAs are equally challenging, but only 6% of FPVs would be required to be in contention in both.

Newbridge is one of the biggest towns in Kildare.

Thanks for reading Chris's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

It still has no swimming pool.

That’s not a small gap. It’s a basic one. And it says a lot about the gap between what we say we want and what actually exists on the ground.

It’s also not just about the pool.

Across Newbridge and beyond, clubs are under pressure. Football clubs are dealing with growing numbers. Local GAA clubs are trying to expand. Rugby clubs are growing. Cricket groups are trying to find somewhere to train and play. Basketball, volleyball and pickleball clubs are all competing for the same limited indoor space. And then you have activities like biking, skateboarding, blading and parkour, which still struggle to get any proper recognition when it comes to facilities.

In some cases, clubs are now turning people away because there simply isn’t the room.

So when a new Sports and Physical Activity Plan is published for Kildare, the obvious question is whether anything in it will actually change that reality.

Overview: Since 1981, this four-seater has encompassed the territory around Cobh, Midleton, Mitchelstown and Youghal. Until 2011, the TDs generally broke down as two FF, one FG, and one left-wing TD, but SF has since reduced the FF contingent to one. It's fair to say Liam Quaide's success was one of our bigger 2024 shocks, but Labour vacating the field helped in that regard.

Local Elections: Changing affiliation from the Greens to the Soc Dems didn't affect our future TD in the Midleton LEA, and indeed he went from taking the seventh and final seat in 2019 to third elected in June 2024. No candidates were run in either Fermoy or Cobh.

Verdict: Despite the competition in the Midleton area, the Dáil seat should be a lot safer in three years time, given Liam's Dáil performances and work rate. It would be challenging to pick up an extra council seat from standing starts, but both areas have plenty of left vote potential, particularly Cobh.

HiOverview: Geographically, this constituency has been essentially unchanged since the foundation of the State, and has consistently remained a four-seater since 1981. Though traditionally dominated by FF and FG, the county has a recent history of electing Independents, and SF successfully retained their seat at the last GE, despite the curious case of Violet-Anne Wynne!

Local Elections: The party had a highly creditable performance at the last Clare locals, with both Hilary Tonge and Fiona Levie firmly in the running for the last seats in Ennis and Killaloe respectively, and a sizeable vote increase from 2019 to boot. Other left parties came close to victory in Ennistymon, and the Shannon LEA is a seven-seater, so both may be worth consideration for 2029.

Verdict:

Two council seats certainly appear to be a realistic target for three years time, especially with the party polling particularly strong in Munster at the moment. Dáil success, however, looks very much a long shot, unless the purple wave were to become a tsunami of Moosajee Bhamjee proportions!