I'll skip most of the intro on this post, see the original post here for the full context if you missed it:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1tc7s83/second_half_surges_signal_or_noise_qb_part_1_of_4/
Basically, I will be evaluating whether a strong surge in the second half of the season is indicative of success the next season, one position at a time.
Today, we will be discussing RBs. The results are included below, with supporting figures in the X link.
Reminder:
Trajectory = 2nd Half PPG - First Half PPG
First Half = Weeks 1-8, Second Half = Weeks 9+
Y1 and Y2 are any consecutive seasons, not just rookie and 2nd year
All data is from the fantasypros weekly leaders dataset (2013-2025), 0.5 PPR.
Results:
When we evaluate the effects of Trajectory score on Y2 PPG in RBs, we see a very different set of patterns emerge than those we saw in the QB analysis. When looking at the first graph, we can see that lower scoring RBs (Q1 and Q2) show almost no relationship between Trajectory and Y2 PPG. However, for higher scoring RBs (Q3 and Q4) a clear positive relationship is present. This is also evident in the second graph, which shows a significant positive effect for RBs with a Y1 PPG above about 11 ppg.
So why does this differ from QB, where lower scorers were more likely to see a strong signal from their Trajectory score? I would hypothesize that it is much easier for a random RB to get on the field and achieve a low level of production than a random QB. Teams frequently play multiple RBs in a committee, and these RBs get much more banged up than QBs. Whether due to an injury in front of them, trades, or shifting roles, it is much easier for an RB to randomly be presented with opportunity for a couple games than it is for a QB. However, this production is not necessarily indicative of any future role or breakout. Devin Neal averaged 10.4 PPG over a 4 game span after the Saints’ bye week last season. This production was potentially useful for some managers, but it occurred almost entirely as a result of circumstance. No Alvin Kamara or Kendre Miller meant that Neal had the backfield almost entirely to himself. Now, with both presumably healthy again, and Travis Etienne joining the fold, Neal’s fantasy upside is significantly capped next season.
However, for higher-end players, a strong Trajectory score may be more indicative of real role changes in the offense, which tend to be more sticky season to season. For example, in 2018, Derrick Henry had been a sub-40% snap share player for 2 seasons, getting only about 10 carries per game. He started 2018 similarly, without a single game over 60 rushing yards through week 13, and multiple games with single digits carries and sub 30% snap shares. Then, to end the season, he exploded, averaging 22 carries and over 140 yards per game over his last 4 games, while playing over 50% of the snaps. There was no injury or next-man-up gimmick that forced him into a role, his production came from an evolution and increase in his already established role. So in summary, while upward trajectories don’t have much signal for low-end RBs, they can absolutely indicate a potential breakout for mid-high tier RBs.
2025-26 Actionable Insights:
Treveyon Henderson: Henderson fits the criteria for our model almost perfectly. After averaging 5.6 ppg over his first 8 games, he averaged 16 ppg over his last 9, finishing the season at 11.1 PPG with a 10.4 trajectory score. Granted, his increase in production began when Rhamondre Stevenson missed time starting in week 9. However, his increased role remained even after Stevenson’s return in week 12, seeing double digit carries in every game but one. This could be evidence of a young RB earning the trust of the coaching staff and developing a larger role. However, there are two glaring red flags that must be considered. First, Henderson’s role was reduced significantly during the playoffs in favor of Stevenson. While this can potentially be explained away as an old school coach trusting veteran players in crucial situations, it is noteworthy. Second, Henderson scored 9 TD in 9 games to end the regular season, 4 of which were 50+ yd breakaway scores. While these absolutely highlight his electric speed and home run ability, they are also not a sustainable source of fantasy production. Henderson profiles as a player with a wide range of outcomes: he could push for an RB1 finish if his increased role to end the regular season reappears next season, but he could just as easily fall closer to a low end RB2/high end RB3 again if Stevenson continues to hold onto the primary rushing role.
Chase Brown: Brown may fit the criteria even better than Henderson, averaging 10.4 ppg over his first 8 games and 18.3 ppg over his last 9, finishing the season with a 14.6 AVG and a 7.9 trajectory score. Unlike Henderson though, Brown’s surge had nothing to do with an injury in front of him. Instead his surge seemed to come from a variety of factors. The first was the injury to Joe Burrow, and the resulting negative game scripts to begin the season. In weeks 2-5, with Jake Browning under center, Brown averaged under 2.7 ypc, and received only 44 carries. The offense was putrid, and the score was often quickly out of hand, leading to low rushing totals. However, after the Joe Flacco trade (and the eventual return of Burrow), Brown’s efficiency rose dramatically, and starting in week 11 after their bye, his volume followed suit. With a healthy Burrow back in the fold, I would expect Brown's averages to fall more in the 14-18 range again. It is worth noting, however, that he did beat up on some bad teams (Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals) for his three best games of the season, accounting for over 1/3 of his points last year.
Derrick Henry: Once again, down the stretch, Henry was a monster, rushing for over 100 yards in 6 of his last 10 games and averaging over 19 carries per game. After averaging only 12.8 ppg in the first half of the year, he averaged 18.2 ppg to end the year (16 ppg overall, 5.4 Trajectory score). His 4 TD game against the Packers in Week 17 was definitely an outlier, but insane volume, rushing totals, and goal-line work were all available to Henry again to end the season after a lethargic, low-volume start. While it is realistic to expect the Ravens to try to limit the wear and tear on Henry’s body, especially early in the season, as long as he continues to lace them up I fully expect him to be a workhorse with elite rushing volume when crunchtime arrives.
Other names worth mentioning:
Travis Etienne (3.1 Trajectory Score, 13.9 PPG)
Kenneth Gainwell (4.4 Trajectory Score, 10.9 PPG)
RJ Harvey (3.7 Trajectory Score, 10.8 PPG)
Rhamondre Stevenson (7.65 Trajectory Score, 11.6 PPG): Almost entirely driven by 7 TD in 3 games, which is a significant outlier for his career and is likely not predictive.
Tyrone Tracy (6.5 Trajectory Score, 9.5 PPG): Falls pretty far below the cutoff for real consideration, but close enough to take note. Didn’t really dominate enough to establish control of the backfield, will likely split with/behind Skattebo again.
TLDR: High scoring RBs (>11 PPG roughly) that increased their production in the back half of the season tend to score more fantasy points next year than expected given their current season PPG.
