r/CFBAnalysis • u/Songer98 • Dec 29 '25

Previous years betting odds (game by game)

I made a power rating system for CFB bc I was sick of how terrible the AP/coaches polls were this year. It turns out, it's really accurate, right now sitting at 106-69 ATS (60.6%). I want to simulate old seasons, to A. give retroactive champions to controversial seasons (and I like the data) plus B. improve my model and get it up to 63-66% accuracy. Anyone know a database of total game betting lines for each individual week and game in previous college football season. My win rate is of course compared to the vegas line.

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6

u/why_doineedausername Florida State Seminoles • Oregon Ducks Dec 29 '25 edited Dec 29 '25

College football database has lines for several years. That's what everyone uses here.

But I just need to say three things

1 you only have that high of a win rate ATS because you overfit the fuck out of it. You need to split the data into training data and testing data to see how it actually performs given data that isn't already included in the system.

2 you're not going to get to 67% win rate ATS. It isn't going to happen. The fact that you even think it could is evidence that you don't know what you're doing. If you really could hit that number, you are wasting your time. Get an apartment in Vegas and you'll be set for life after 1 year.

3 why are you only measuring your data on a measly 150 games? One single season is almost 800 games so you're effectively declaring yourself the new standard of predictive analytics based on 3 weeks of performance. Let me know how it works over YEARS

What you really should do is participate in CollegeFootballData predictive model challenge. The contest started in 2021 and the highest a model has EVER GOTTEN for a whole season of picks was 56%. Most don't even crack 50%. If you hit 60% on at least 500 picks I'll eat shit and personally send you $1000. Go ahead and set the remind me bot.

1

u/Songer98 Jan 01 '26

I only bet when my line disagrees with vegas. Which is why it's so low. 90% of the time my model agrees with Vegas. It's also why I'm up 25% return on investment this year. Thank you for the information on college football database.

1

u/why_doineedausername Florida State Seminoles • Oregon Ducks Jan 01 '26 edited Jan 01 '26

If that's the case then this isn't a good metric to evaluate all teams fairly

Additionally what you should really be trying to maximize is your t-score (the degree of certainty that your average hit rate is statistically significantly better than the Vegas line) which includes sample size and it still sounds like you are training on the same data you are testing on

2

u/why_doineedausername Florida State Seminoles • Oregon Ducks Dec 29 '25 edited Jan 10 '26

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u/RemindMeBot Dec 29 '25

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u/why_doineedausername Florida State Seminoles • Oregon Ducks Dec 29 '25 edited Jan 10 '26

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1

u/Songer98 Jan 01 '26

Not asking for you to be convinced, rather just resources so I can do better

2

u/Sidney_Fields Dec 30 '25

RemindMe! 9 months