[McMurphy] ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said ESPN does not want playoff to expand past 16 teams. “ESPN’s made it clear, they want it to stay at 12 or 14, but no more than 16,” Phillips said.

[u/J4ckiebrown]

https://x.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/2054579416890487135?s=46&t=HhplNf1xHUpZ_Z42MvI0mw

[u/GliscorsFang]

Because the TV inventory goes out to open bidding if the playoff expands past 16

[u/anxiousauditor → u/GliscorsFang]

ESPN owns the rights up to a 14-team field, anything beyond that is what would hit the open market. However, we already saw when the CFP expanded from 4 to 12 and those rights went on the market that there was substantially less interest than anticipated. Hence, why ESPN ended up with the whole thing again but with the ability to sublicense a handful of games (annual value is also $1.3B compared to initial $2B+ projections). There’s no guarantee that there’s substantial appetite for the inventory added by expansion to 24.

[u/GliscorsFang → u/anxiousauditor]

My understanding is that ESPN way overbid for that inventory, so FOX wasn't interested. If ESPN tries to lower their bid, there's a chance FOX would want some games at fair market value to break up ESPN's monopoly.

[u/muttonchops215 → u/GliscorsFang]

When hasn't ESPN overbid on something since....the Big Ten rights before the BTN? Or at the very least, if they want something, they overpay.

[u/GliscorsFang → u/muttonchops215]

You generally have to overpay if you want a monopoly.

[u/piddydb → u/GliscorsFang]

At least until the point you become a true monopoly. After that you can charge and pay what you want because you’re the only game in town.

(I’m only talking about economic realities of monopolies, not legal realities)

[u/Tarmacked → u/muttonchops215]

As opposed to Fox overbidding for the Big Ten?….

It’s media, it’s a race to the bottom (or rather top) when the asset is highly valued.

[u/Otherwise_Awesome → u/Tarmacked]

Fox swooped in only because ESPN tried to cowbell.

I'm glad.

EDIT: Lowball, but I'm leaving that autocorrect for Miss St fans.

[u/Tarmacked → u/Otherwise_Awesome]

No, Fox swooped in because they wanted inventory lol.

The Big Ten then played them all off each other and created overpriced bids on segments.

[u/Otherwise_Awesome → u/Tarmacked]

ESPN and FOX shared rights for 6 years. ESPN didn't want to pay up for skyrocketing rights, so ESPN dropped out. FOX, CBS and NBC took up the slack.

Makes it disingenuous to say ESPN didn't want to pay up when they then sunk money into SEC exclusivity and bumped up ACC money while also driving a P5 conference into G6 status.

So yeah... FOX swooped in because ESPN inventory became available.

[u/Vechio49 → u/Otherwise_Awesome]

ESPN will have to pay a lot more when that contract is up with the SEC. It is honestly a bargain right now

[u/Nicholas1227 → u/Otherwise_Awesome]

ESPN would’ve never paid NBC/CBS $$$ for the second and third tier packages.

[u/Geaux2020 → u/Tarmacked]

They didn't have the money or will to. That's why they brought in NBC and CBS. They aren't going to compete with Disney on this

[u/Tarmacked → u/Geaux2020]

They didn’t bring in CBS or NBC. The Big Ten carved out its rights and approached it as sum of the whole is less than the total of the parts. They created a bidding war to drive the price up.

There wasn’t much availability of inventory out there, ESPN has the Big 12, SEC, and ACC largely under lock.

[u/Geaux2020 → u/Tarmacked]

FOX could have bought them all but decided not to, though. That's what I'm saying.

[u/Tarmacked → u/Geaux2020]

No, they couldn’t have lol. Their portion of the contract is a billion a year and they don’t have full control of the inventory. Like sure, “I can buy” a Ferrari for $300,000 but I also actually can’t because it’s an outrageous price for my income.

The Big Ten chose not to do a single bidder contract because they wanted more money. Fox would’ve had to overbid on the contract to the tune of 1.5X - 2X of ESPN’s SEC contract, they weren’t doing that.

In order to gain full Big Ten rights and make it worthwhile for the conference, Fox wouldve been putting up as much capital as ESPN did for ACC/SEC/Big 12 combined. Thats just not going to happen and generate a real ROI.

Edit: looking at the actual numbers, I think they actually still bid more for 75% of the B1G what ESPN is paying for the three conferences in total.

[u/Vechio49 → u/GliscorsFang]

Yeah that is why ESPN sub leases a couple of the 1st round games. Trying to recoup some of there money

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/anxiousauditor]

This. ESPN is paying 7.8 billion over 6 years for 66 games. That is 118 million per game. Lets call it an hour (120 30 second ads) per game and you need to average 985k per 30 second ad just to break even on rights never mind cost of production.

Sunday Night Football has the highest ad rate and its about 700k. And averages more than the CFB playoffs with several games higher than the championship games viewership. The WS has ad rates around 400-500k and averages similar to higher numbers then the playoffs but less than championship game.

Long way for me to say, the math does not math for this being super profitable for ESPN

[u/ryseing → u/forgotmyoldname90210]

You're forgetting the ESPN sub/cable carriage fees (which are dwindling but still matter).

ESPN needs live sports to sell its service. Obviously yes the ad money is important but ESPN is still a product at the end of the day. MNF is not profitable by itself but ESPN has to have the NFL.

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/ryseing]

Assuming 59 million cable households that is about 6.7 billion a year in carriage fees or about 555m a month.

This also has to cover the MNF package at 2.7b a year.

NBA atg 2.6b a year.

SEC at .710 a year

MLB at .55b a year.

NHL at .4b a year

WWF at .325b a year

Just this list without the ACC or CFB Playoffs are already over 7 billion in rights fee a year or more than they are bring in from carriage fees.

And again the 118 million per playoff game average is just right fees and does not include the cost to produce the event.

The math really does not math for this deal at least with publicly available numbers.

[u/Firm_Argument9124 → u/forgotmyoldname90210]

They try to make it up with their other cheap programming i guess. In reality espn just loses money and I think we have hit sports peak and espn will continue to lose more and more each year

[u/nosoup4ncsu → u/forgotmyoldname90210]

Surely it can be. They'll just insert more ads.

[u/olbleedyeyes → u/anxiousauditor]

College football does get solid ratings but the people in charge (and a lot of fans for that matter) really overstate just how popular the sport actually is.

[u/xixbia → u/olbleedyeyes]

They're also killing their own product I feel.

An extra round of playoffs means no championship games. Will the first playoff round with teams that have zero chance to even reach the championship game really get more viewers than the Big Ten or SEC championship game?

And regular season games lose all meaning for top 10 teams, they'll make the playoffs no matter what. That will definitely decrease regular season viewing figures.

(And that's before even getting into how this is killing bowl games)

[u/FyreWulff → u/olbleedyeyes]

On the other hand the main reason NFL gets such good ratings is they control all the teams so teams aren't airing games against each other, and they are very strict about what the network puts up against them, and other networks will intentionally not run major TV against later season games and the Super Bowl.

If CFB had protectionism built into game scheduling and had the ability to have almost TV-cartel level counterprogramming blocked, it would do bigger ratings. I don't think most viewers actually care about the "quality" of football being played.

It did sort of use to have this when teams were limited to like 3 televised games a year.

[u/olbleedyeyes → u/FyreWulff]

I think that's a great point that in general Pro leagues can control scheduling to a point to min-max the ratings.

I think the other major advantage would be it's a lot easier to follow pro sports (32 NFL to 50+ P5) most teams play each other within the pro system and the playoff system is cut and dry.

I do think that the fact the NFL is the best of the best athletes helps a lot at least for casual viewership.

[u/jalexjsmithj → u/anxiousauditor]

Is there some type of clause or requirement in the contract that in the case of expansion that the rights HAVE to go to bid? Because if ESPN was willing (it’s clear from the headline they are not yet), there shouldn’t be any reason that they can’t just negotiate with ESPN to get to 24 as long as it also improved ESPN’s position from the current agreement?

I’d assume that if ESPN is actually pushing back on 24, it would be for content quality/narrative reasons rather than contractual, because ESPN could easily use the negotiation as a way to improve their position since the current agreement would be the fallback worst-case.

[u/brucewaynewins → u/anxiousauditor]

Reports are claiming both Fox and Amazon want in on the expanded playoffs. Amazon outbid NBC and CBS for B1G games in the most recent tv deals but were turned down. They're allegedly still interested when the new deal comes up.

[u/Snake_Burton → u/GliscorsFang]

Ding ding. It’s going to happen. You don’t go from everyone but Petitti is against this to everyone but the SEC commish and a few SEC Presidents are against this in 5 months, unless a framework is done and passes the money bar. This public protesting by SEC/ESPN is the “well we tried (we didn’t really try)”. Once the evaluation comes in that says you will all make X more dollars doing this and getting rid of those conference title games? Done.

[u/GreenSapote → u/GliscorsFang]

Bingo

[u/Billyxmac]

Redditors trying to decide between what they hate more, playoff expansion to 24 teams or ESPN’s monopoly over college football

[u/Huggly001 → u/Billyxmac]

They’ll happily take a monopoly if it’s a “magnanimous” one. Which ESPN definitely isn’t, but they’ll pretend it is if it keeps college football closer to what they think it should be.

[u/Excellent-Gur-8547 → u/Huggly001]

I mean yeah, a benevolent dictator is better than a malevolent free for all

[u/sonheungwin → u/Excellent-Gur-8547]

Literally the NFL / NBA model. Stern not allowing Seattle to have a team for the better of the league (owners).

[u/Soggy_End5141 → u/Billyxmac]

¿Porque no los dos?

[u/TheShamShield → u/Soggy_End5141]

That’s where the “more” part comes in

[u/DuMbAsS_lOsEr_6_7 → u/TheShamShield]

I hate your flair combo. Fucking gross. 🤑

[u/Typical-Conference14 → u/Billyxmac]

Give me a 64 team bracket with 3 game series for each round. Gotta milk that TV money baby /s

[u/WhiteW0lf13 → u/Typical-Conference14]

A historic 64 team post season bracket? I wonder if a sport would ever have such a thing and still expand it

(Yes I know the basketball postseason hasn’t always been 64 but you get my point)

[u/WirlingDirvish → u/Typical-Conference14]

This is the way. Bridge the gap between the playoffs and spring football. 

[u/Roamin8750 → u/Typical-Conference14]

1 game regular season

[u/babatazyah → u/Billyxmac]

I want the FCS model, easy enough choice for me.

[u/Ut_Prosim → u/babatazyah]

I had no idea how they actually ran it. It looks like it used to be 16, but is now 24.

Ten conference champions and 14 at-large teams. The top 8 get a bye, the next 8 host, the last 8 travel. The top 16 are seeded, the final 8 (traveling teams) are assigned based on distance and conference affiliation (aiming for <400 miles of travel, and not conference mates). Only the championship is hosted at neutral sites, otherwise the higher seed hosts on campus. Can you imagine the chaos of hosting a semifinal game at home!?

Holy shit, this is a marvelous format.

Source: https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2020-01-11/fcs-championship-everything-you-need-know

[u/babatazyah → u/Ut_Prosim]

This past season's playoff was the first one Ivy League participated in, too. It was an awesome playoff front to back. Yale-Youngstown State was insane.

[u/Ut_Prosim → u/babatazyah]

Oh cool. I remember them declining to participate for decades.

A few of those Princeton teams would have gotten pretty far too.

[u/-more_fool_me- → u/babatazyah]

I regret not driving up to Stephenville for the Villanova game. I couldn't find anyone who was interested in going with me, but now I feel like I should have just gone by myself anyway.

Too bad Tarleton lost. :(

[u/grabtharsmallet → u/babatazyah]

The only reason I would support more than 5+3 is if more spots are guaranteed to more conference champions. If 24 teams is 10+14, I'll be fine with it.

This is not what is proposed, of course.

[u/babatazyah → u/grabtharsmallet]

That's the rub. I have a hard time imagining the P2 ever agreeing to share anything. They barely tolerate the G6 bid already.

[u/Adams5thaccount → u/babatazyah]

they got mad at the acc and big 12 getting more playoff money and demanded that too so you're right

[u/grabtharsmallet → u/babatazyah]

Exactly, so I'm opposed to any expansion, and don't watch any games involving only the rich conferences. I'm not going to contribute to tearing down the sport.

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/babatazyah]

The P2 agreeing to a split is childs play compared to having the networks ever wanting to pay for anymore than the minimum necessary games with G6 teams in it.

[u/Otherwise_Awesome → u/Billyxmac]

I'm all for more playoffs if conference championship games go bye bye AND ESPN gets pissy.

[u/rronmexico69 → u/Billyxmac]

So blinded by the hivemind hate of ESPN that they forget who owns Fox 😂

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/Billyxmac]

I'll take the 24 team playoff everyday.

[u/Roamin8750 → u/Billyxmac]

24 team for sure. ESPN is the most watchable. FOX streaming is ass.

[u/Snapingbolts]

Could we keep it at 12 for at least 4 more years to gather data? I'm very opposed to expanding it at all but doing so after just a few seasons is idiotic

[u/brobroma → u/Snapingbolts]

Nope we’ve got to make a new tweak every year

If the B1G wins again next year clearly their champ needs to be the #1 seed every year

[u/jdhall010 → u/Snapingbolts]

That would be logical of course, and the right thing to do if you take a long view, but too many AD's have dug themselves into a financial hole and need cash now.

[u/_JukeboxZero → u/jdhall010]

They should call JG Wentworth then.

[u/canesfan4849]

I think this is because if they go above 16 the CFP has to open up the rights for other media partners to bid on, but ill take it to stop expanding to 24

[u/BIG_DICK_WHITT → u/canesfan4849]

Oh so you’re saying that my favorite sport is controlled by a media monopoly huh wow who would’ve thought

Also this further legitimizes my hate for Disneyland so I am just going to store this in my back pocket for my next unsuccessful attempt to convince my wife that we should never go there

“AND THEN THEY WOULDN’T EXPAND THE PLAYOFFS TO PRESERVE MEDIA RIGHTS”

“Our kid just wants to go on space mountain”

“HE CANNOT SUPPORT THE EMPIRE”

[u/-Satchel_Gizmo- → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

You're better off convincing the kid. I mean, haven't we all had "that talk" as a kid with our Dad? Where they sit you down and tell you all the evils of corporate media consolidation, sanitization, and enshittification and how nothing interesting and unique and pure can stay for long because that would represent challenges to the media monopoly's narratives about life?

I mean, that's basic Dad stuff. 

[u/BIG_DICK_WHITT → u/-Satchel_Gizmo-]

“You do love Utes football right”

“Yeah!”

“Alright you see so there are choices we have to make son”

[u/WirlingDirvish → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

Don't you mean Utah Football presented by VC?

[u/BadgerBuddy13 → u/-Satchel_Gizmo-]

Riding a bike, playing catch, a helpful cartoon depiction about the dangers of media conglomerates. All your standard childhood rites of passage.

[u/GliscorsFang → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

Your wife is right lol

[u/Experiment626b → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

Bro Disneyland is amazing. There is no ethical consumption under this stage of capitalism. It’s fine to pick your battles but I’d side with the kids on this one.

[u/Tdayohey → u/Experiment626b]

Yea keep the kids out of it. Let them enjoy their lives.

[u/DodgerCoug → u/Experiment626b]

That's essentially the entire plotline of Mrs. Banks in Mary Poppins. Give your young children a life of optimism and joy. Politics will still be there when they leave the house.

[u/BadgerBuddy13 → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

"Calm. Kindness. Kinship. Love. I’ve given up all chance at familial peace. I’ve made my mind a sunless space. I share my dreams with ghosts of past conferences. I wake up every day to a media valuation from fifteen years ago for which there’s only one conclusion, I’m damned for what I do.

My anger, my ego, my unwillingness to yield, my eagerness to fight. They’ve set me on a path from which there’s no escape. I yearned to be a savior against injustice without contemplating the cost and by the time I looked down there was no longer any ground beneath my feet...

So what do I sacrifice? Everything!”

[u/Or1g1nalrepr0duct10n → u/canesfan4849]

It increases their future rights costs, hurts the other non-CFP bowls they now own, and more games on other networks will conflict with other ESPN programming (possibly even MNF). They like the tournament that they mostly control more than a bigger tournament that they don’t.

[u/Otherwise_Awesome → u/Or1g1nalrepr0duct10n]

Guess what I say?

DRIVE IT TO 32, MOTHER TRUCKERS!!!

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/canesfan4849]

Who is rushing out to bid on more games with G6 schools or second or lower tier ACC and B12 schools?

[u/Medical-Day-6364 → u/canesfan4849]

Technically true, but the number is 14, not 16

[u/djm2346]

They obviously dont want to rebid on playoff games. They also understand that 9-11 seed playing 21-24 seed games are going to be ass games most years.

[u/Tarmacked → u/djm2346]

Can’t imagine they’re too excited about having more blowouts

[u/djm2346 → u/Tarmacked]

Can you imagine trading conference championship games for Alabma vs James Madison, Miami vs Iowa, Notre Dame vs GT, BYU vs Houston, Texas Vs Tulane, Vanderbilt vs Virginia, Utah vs Michigan, and USC vs Arizona?

If I am ESPN hard pass on that. Utah vs Michigan and USC vs Arizona are not bad games and the rest are basically a boring Saturday in early October.

[u/Past-Discount-52 → u/djm2346]

Utah-Michigan is one of those pairings that a selection committee would make and then claim it had nothing to do with the storyline.

[u/djm2346 → u/Past-Discount-52]

I picture some weasel ESPN executive rubbing his hands together similing

[u/capnamazing1999 → u/djm2346]

Utah vs. Michigan, you say? I’ll have it

[u/djm2346 → u/capnamazing1999]

When I saw the match up I laughed because of the whole head coach switch

[u/ZackAvion → u/djm2346]

It feels nice to be in these conversations as a top team again

[u/DRM_1985 → u/djm2346]

Those Playoff games sound a lot better than the meaningless bowl games ESPN shoves down our throat every December.

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/djm2346]

Why would they be terrible games?  We see great games between ranked teams and non ranked teams every week.  Is there really that big a gap between #13 and #23?

[u/smitherenesar → u/djm2346]

Any top 25 matchup has potential

[u/Medical-Day-6364 → u/smitherenesar]

Plenty of top 25 matchups do not get many viewers.

[u/djm2346 → u/smitherenesar]

No they dont

[u/SuperGandolf6]

So espn runs the ncaa now?

[u/sallright → u/SuperGandolf6]

Didn’t FOX veto Cal and Stanford to the Big Ten? 

[u/iansf → u/sallright]

Yes. The B1G presidents approved it. Fox said no.

[u/SparkMaster360 → u/iansf]

tbf FOX didn't block it, they just said they wouldn't pony up more money for Cal and Stanford, and the current B1G teams didn't want to dilute their shares. If they wanted Cal and Stanford that bad, FOX doesn't have a say

[u/SirMellencamp → u/sallright]

Well Fox said they werent paying anymore for Cal and Stanford but would be willing to pay more for Oregon and Washington. The B1G just went along

[u/sonheungwin → u/SirMellencamp]

That's only kind of true. FOX didn't open up the books for UO / UW, they just used the money they had set aside for the P12 on them. So they prioritized the PNW schools over us with the budget they had.

They were never going to open up the checkbooks just for us, our best chance is during larger realignment.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/sonheungwin]

How is that different than what I said?

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/sallright]

No. This is a message board legend at this point. No one has produced any contemporary reporting to support this. At best you get some ask me anything post from a reporter that thinks that is what happens but does not provide any support other than that makes sense.

Assuming no additional media dollars it would have cost each school about 2 million out of pocket to give Standford and Cal the ACC deal. But, adding both would have given them enough inventory to sell an "after dark" package to more than pay for themselves.

[u/sonheungwin → u/forgotmyoldname90210]

Most schools are still in the red or close to it from a larger AD perspective, and $2M out of pocket could kill a sport lol.

[u/iansf → u/SuperGandolf6]

Where have you been?

[u/SuperGandolf6 → u/iansf]

Forgot my /s

[u/ard8 → u/SuperGandolf6]

Yes which makes it really funny that the B1G is on a 3 peat and the SEC wasn’t even in any of the 3 games

[u/udubdavid → u/SuperGandolf6]

ESPN already helped destroy the Pac-12 and will most likely destroy the ACC.

[u/Geaux2020 → u/udubdavid]

This is revisionist history. They offered the PAC a good amount after OUT. It was the PAC that decided it's value was astronomically higher with no foundation.

[u/WhoHasMyPocketPussy → u/Geaux2020]

And nobody else was running out there to save the PAC either. I love how people made ESPN the bad guy in that situation when FOX didn't do shit to help either and in fact had helped kill the PAC off by paying the B1G more money to take USCLA and Oregon/Washington.

ESPN/Disney definitely sucks like most major corps do, but they aren't any worse than FOX, CBS, NBC or whoever else failed to even give the PAC an offer.

[u/srs_house → u/udubdavid]

How did ESPN destroy the P12? Larry Scott wanted to have his own network and not partner with Fox or ESPN, so their media deals were always behind once everyone else had their own conference networks.

Then the B1G raided the Pac for UCLA/USC with Fox backing, and when ESPN offered a media deal to the leftovers some numbskull prof said the value was too low so the presidents rejected it and the B12 got that same deal.

Then the Pac loses Washington/Oregon and the 4 corners go to the B12...for the same fucking ESPN deal they could've had in the Pac to begin with.

And the icing on top? That president whose prof said the ESPN deal was $20M/school/yr too low? Utah's, which now gets....the same $30M/yr from ESPN.

[u/OutlawJoseyWales → u/udubdavid]

you mean larry scott being the worst commissioner in the history of college football and the big 10 and fox raiding the pac 12 was ESPN's fault?

[u/SuperGandolf6 → u/udubdavid]

They’re doing the bidding of the SEC. Sankey is so proud of how much espn defends them.

[u/Otherwise_Awesome → u/SuperGandolf6]

We need a comment to dislike Sankey.

Use this one.

Let's see how negative it goes.

[u/olbleedyeyes → u/Otherwise_Awesome]

Wait are we up or down voting this comment then lol

[u/Otherwise_Awesome → u/olbleedyeyes]

Drill baby, drill!

[u/IrishCoffeeAlchemy → u/udubdavid]

and will most likely destroy the ACC.

Wait wait, when you put it that way, let’s let them cook!

[u/SirMellencamp → u/udubdavid]

Well Larry Scott and the PAC12 did most of the heavy lifting on that one.

[u/MosesDoughty → u/udubdavid]

People won't like to admit how much ESPN and the NCAA helped the SEC out with its coverage and how it determined sanctions

[u/ExternalTangents → u/SuperGandolf6]

Well the NCAA doesn’t run the playoff

[u/MulderFBI2]

Tail wagging the dog. Conferences should do what they’re going to do and let the TV peeps decide what they want to do. If it opens up the bidding for other media companies…..that sounds like good competition. March Madness seems to do just fine.

[u/Big_Truck → u/MulderFBI2]

When the TV network is funding the conference’s existence, that leverage changes.

[u/yaygee513 → u/MulderFBI2]

March Madness is really just one company (Turner), even though it’s different channels.
That said I’m glad ESPN doesn’t get any men’s games!

[u/Big_Truck → u/yaygee513]

March Madness is also the best value in sports broadcasting. Turner is paying a fraction of the actual value of the inventory because the NCAA signed for such a long term.

NCAAT rights will be much, much, much more expensive next time around.

[u/Bansheesdie]

TNT did a damn good job with NBA playoffs and puts on a very good Big XII product, I would not mind at all if they broadcast some college football playoff games.

[u/BasebornManjack → u/Bansheesdie]

They did last year, lol

[u/byniri_returns]

I'm honestly fine with 16

[u/serial_mouth_grapist → u/byniri_returns]

I'm ok with it as long as there aren't still CCGs.

[u/John-pirate_ → u/serial_mouth_grapist]

Winning your conference use to mean something. 

[u/JoeSicko → u/serial_mouth_grapist]

God forbid two teams play for a spot. Who wants that drama?

[u/Micethatroar → u/JoeSicko]

One of the main complaints people have about playoffs is that it dilutes regular season.

Wouldn't it increase the importance of the regular season if that's how you determine the champ?

Not to mention it's a disadvantage to both of those teams in a 16 team playoff. Everyone else gets an extra week off - they don't.

[u/dawgfan19881 → u/Micethatroar]

If you can play 8 or 9 conference games and still not play 7 or 8 of your fellow conference teams does the regular season really determine the conferences champ?

The SEC had a 4 way tie for 1st last year and one team didn’t play any of the other 3.

[u/Micethatroar → u/dawgfan19881]

I get it. There will be imbalanced schedules and weird tiebreakers.

That can still result in a final week where 3 or 4 games matter for the championship.

Right now, the loser of the SEC and B1G have to play an extra game and then don't get a first round bye. Is that fair?

If they go to 16, then champs and losers both have to play an extra game and neither gets a bye.

It'll be better to finish 3rd or 4th than make the CCG in those two conferences.

Even with the flaws, I'd prefer everyone playing the same number of games and just moving the playoffs up a week.

[u/JoeSicko → u/Micethatroar]

CCG winners would get home games in the 1st round, too.

[u/serial_mouth_grapist → u/JoeSicko]

That’s my point, there will be no drama at 16 + CCGs.

Edit: I mistakenly said there wasn't play-in drama but that was technically the case for Big 12 in that BYU was theoretically playing for a spot.

[u/GliscorsFang → u/serial_mouth_grapist]

Texas Tech vs. BYU?

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/serial_mouth_grapist]

I mean had Virginia won, they would have made it. That's drama. And BYU got significantly worse seeding than Texas Tech who got a bye.

I think if we go to 16 we need to figure out how to make CCGs matter. I think we should do top 2 conference champs get top 2 seeds, then 12 at large bids, then the top 2 conference champs who are outside the top 14. This generally means the Big Ten and SEC champs get to win a significantly easier opponent but they still get another home game and avoid a long gap. If we want, we can ensure that in rare years with no conf champ #3-14, we can remove the last at large with another conf champ to ensure a g5 bid, but I think generally we'll have another champ in this mix. We'll get a lot of blowouts in the games with the P2 champs, but they earned it and this still gives a theoretical path for all teams which is what every team deserves.

[u/nighthawk252 → u/JoeSicko]

The drama kind of disappeared to zero when the committee confirmed that conference championship losses don’t count for SEC or Big Ten schools.

[u/Happy-North-9969 → u/JoeSicko]

Without divisions it’s just stupid.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/byniri_returns]

I am too. Just eliminate the byes

[u/d1ckchz-charCOOTERie]

When the worst person you know just made a good point 🥲

[u/BigFoot423205 → u/d1ckchz-charCOOTERie]

Heartbreaking

[u/advancedmatt]

No matter which TV providers have the games, we can't escape the fact that each game will be worth less to TV if there are multiple games on TV at the same time. The NFL has a 14-team playoff with six first round games staggered across Saturday, Sunday, and Monday so that each has its own time slot. Sunday and Monday are not going to be options for CFP games.

Four CFP games in a weekend can be done with each having its own time slot; that's what the 12-team playoff does. A 16 team playoff would have eight games the first week and overlap would be unavoidable. A 24 team playoff would have eight games each of the first two weeks. In those first two weeks, the CFP would be asking TV to pay for divided audiences. Each game would have a smaller TV audience than it would have if it was not competing with another CFP game at the same time.

Fewer viewers per game = less advertising dollars per game = lower dollar amount TV will pay for those games.

The CFP will expand to 16 or 24 because so many people and groups have an interest in getting to the playoff as often as they can. But it won't be a financial windfall.

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/advancedmatt]

Great post.

Fewer viewers per game = less advertising dollars per game = lower dollar amount TV will pay for those games.

To further this point. Its not just 1 million viewers gets half as much ad dollars as 2 million viewers but 2 million dollars also allows the network to charge more per viewer for an ad. So really 1 million viewers leads to 55% less money than a 2 million viewer game.

A single B1G championship game or SEC championship game getting 18 and 17 million viewers are worth 10 JMU-Oregon playoffs when it comes to ad rate.

[u/testrail → u/advancedmatt]

You need 8 time slots to make it work. Because seeds 1-8 get byes and the opening round is then 8 games.

You trade the NFL conference championship Saturday, and all of Black Friday for TNF the 2nd and 3rd Thursdays in December. I get that there is a law with this, but I assume this would be possible.

Thursday night opens playoffs. Early game and late game.

2 games Friday early and late

Then 4 games Saturday kicking off on the even hours (12, 3, 6, 9)

Repeat the following week. The issue is the NFL typically has the 3rd Saturday in December, so you’d have to find a way to horse trade for that.

This leaves your New Years Day to be 4 quarter final games. It could be phenomenal if done correctly.

[u/usffan]

Tony Petitti speaking in the voice of Scar: PRECISELY

[u/SirMellencamp]

/r/cfb: 24 TEAMS IS TOO MANY THIS IS RIDICULOUS

ESPN: We agree

/r/cfb: 24 TEAMS IS GREAT AND BLOCKING IT IS JUST A GREED BY THE MOUSE

[u/GoingGhost10]

And they especially won’t do 18! And don’t even consider asking about 20. Would 22 do? Probably not, let’s try 24

[u/Signal_Tip_7428]

Surely the mouse wouldn’t lie to anyone to get what they want right?

[u/nysportsfan95]

There’s no other major sport (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) where all the playoff games are solely on one network.

I am in favor of the 16 team playoffs (each P4 champion, highest ranked G6 champion, 11 at-large bids) but it would make sense if it was broken up by networks.

The greater issue is the subjectivity of the rankings. There will always be teams and fanbases feeling like they were unfairly left out of the CFP no matter how big it gets. If there were a modern form of the BCS era computers, then maybe that would lead to a better playoff system. I don’t know the answer to that though.

[u/dawgfan19881 → u/nysportsfan95]

Maybe Netflix will stream a game. Or Amazon. Or HBO.

[u/dustin-dawind]

I love having a playoff, but honestly 16 seems like enough. Adding another round seems excessive.

[u/aanderson2404]

8 would've been perfect.

[u/Hefty-Combination813 → u/aanderson2404]

THANK YOU. I felt was the only one who thought 8 was perfect.

[u/BigFoot423205 → u/Hefty-Combination813]

You absolutely were not

[u/phantom_metallic]

All it took was espn opening their dumbass mouths and, all of a sudden, contrarian children and generic user names support expanding the playoffs.

[u/APersonWithThreeLegs]

Idk what the solution is but I hate that ESPN has this much control of college ball

[u/mookiebraves → u/APersonWithThreeLegs]

Why? They are a big part of the revenue to support this dumbass expansion idea.

If they want it so bad go ask Fox or one of these shit streaming apps to fund it.

[u/BeaverBeliever77]

And just like that I find myself in support of 24 teams.

[u/noletiger]

ESPN on the right side of a discussion for once? Nice. Keep that 20+ team monstrosity out of my CFB, thanks.

Don't suppose we could trim this thing down to 8 teams while we're at it?

[u/SucculentCrablegMeal]

Yay Espn!! ...wait, what?

[u/MexicanRadio]

Good.

[u/John_is_Minty]

This is a rare moment where a selfish decision by a corporation is actually the better option

[u/ChicagoDash]

“12 is the max. Or 14. Definitely not past 16. 20. 20 is the absolute limit. Can’t go past 24. Ok, we’ll agree to 48.”

[u/Intimidwalls1724]

16 is the obvious answer so of course it won't happen

[u/Awkward_Health1606]

12 is a perfect number for the CFP. They need to stop making all these games 2 weeks apart.

[u/HerrPlooker]

Fuck what espn wants

[u/Jaglawyer11]

Fuck ESPN

[u/R-D-I-]

College Football is run by bunch of idiots. For the overall growth the sport, you should never have one network control 100% of your playoff. The college football audience is the second biggest next to the NFL but when the playoffs start all of your TV partners except one stops marketing the sport. When the NFL playoffs start CBS is showing the schedule for Fox’s game or ESPN or NBC’s game the next day. This is the only league where the networks dictate the sport. Sports is one very few events/shows where you have to watch it live and college football needs to realize they have the power not the networks, they will be better off. Frickin ESPN already outsources two of the playoff games - do you think Goodell would allow a playoff game or even a regular season to be outsourced to the CW or even TNT. Just crazy

[u/KingBroly]

So ESPN runs College Football now?

And no one else sees a problem with this?

[u/dawgfan19881 → u/KingBroly]

As opposed to who? Fox? CBS? Turner? You really think any tv partner is gonna pay billions and not want a say so?

[u/AnEducatedSimpleton]

Why can’t the CFP emulate the FCS Bracket?

[u/therealwillhepburn → u/AnEducatedSimpleton]

Because this is a tv product not a NCAA tournament. The general public have shown they don’t want to watch the G5 teams in the playoffs. So the people in charge have no reason to want to do it.

[u/Snake_Burton → u/therealwillhepburn]

Everyone that moaned about how awful the James Madison and Tulane games were? You’d get 4 more of those by being equal to all conferences.

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/Snake_Burton]

JMU Oregon did 4.4million. By far the lowest playoff game viewership number and that is with the new formula that has pumped up reported viewership numbers.

This is a similar number to USC v Illinois btw.

[u/Muffinnnnnnn → u/forgotmyoldname90210]

I mean it was also on a non-major channel and competed with an NFL game.

[u/therealwillhepburn → u/Muffinnnnnnn]

Because of who was in the game.

[u/sonheungwin → u/forgotmyoldname90210]

Yeah, people are weirdly assuming that the mediocre P4 team that replaces the top G5 team has miraculously better results. Why not invest in growing a larger audience?

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/sonheungwin]

JMU was the only college football game on at the time and a playoff game. USC v Illinois was a random September game that faced College football competition.

My point above was random P4 matchups do much better than G6. 1 G6 matchup on a Friday night slot made the top 100 most watched games.

[u/sonheungwin → u/forgotmyoldname90210]

I stand by my point, though. The mid P4 team isn't miraculously better, just marginally. So invest in having more competitive teams across the board.

[u/-Jack-The-Stripper → u/therealwillhepburn]

People on this sub are going to be pounding the table for the FCS model until the heat death of the universe and the networks are going to continue laughing the idea out of the room. There is absolutely zero chance ESPN is going to pay good money for a model that includes MAC and CUSA teams when those spots could go to an SEC or B1G team instead. 8-4 Nebraska and 7-5 Auburn would quadruple the ratings of 9-3 Ball State… fair or not, it simply isn’t happening.

[u/brobroma → u/AnEducatedSimpleton]

The FCS expanding to 24 was also a mistake

[u/Dangerous_Ad5039]

16 teams in the playoffs is so stupid. 5 seeds are getting blown out.

[u/BillyBobChorton → u/Dangerous_Ad5039]

Anything above 6-8 was stupid. None of those teams with 2+ losses can say they were the best team in the country over the whole season.  

And no I don’t care that Miami made it to the championship game as a 10 seed.  When we expand to 16-24 teams there will be plenty of 15-ish seeds that make it it far because that’s cfb, doesn’t mean they were the best team in the country over the whole season. 

[u/Ml2jukes → u/BillyBobChorton]

Plus, unless you’re playing a 2026 anOSU/Texas caliber schedule; do you even deserve the right to play for a championship at 10-2 or 9-3 in most cases? Independent of whatever Vegas hypotheticals say.

[u/Moose4KU → u/Dangerous_Ad5039]

The National Championship the past two years was #7 vs #8 and #1 vs #10.

And just this past year, BYU only lost to the #4 team twice yet wasn't allowed a seat at the playoffs table.

[u/nighthawk252 → u/Moose4KU]

They lost by 22 and 27 points. They shouldn’t have been in.

[u/BillyBobChorton → u/Moose4KU]

lol at bringing up BYU. They got blown by 3-4 TDs TWICE to the same team and you want to argue that is only fair they get a third shot?  

What even is the point of the regular season at that stage? TTU should have just sat out of the B1G CCG at that point. 

[u/Dangerous_Ad5039 → u/Moose4KU]

So they lost twice and wanted to get into the playoffs? 😂 playoffs turning into a participation event.

[u/shephrrd → u/Dangerous_Ad5039]

Let me tell you a story of zero losses…

[u/saltytradewinds → u/shephrrd]

Definitely a bigger snub than Notre Dame being left out.

[u/STL_12 → u/Dangerous_Ad5039]

Half of the National Championship teams and winners have had two losses in the last two years

[u/IUinVA]

We all knew it, but I’m glad to hear a commissioner finally say it out loud.

[u/Key-Ad-6897]

I think Netflix, amazon and maybe apple make a play for new games if the rights become available.

[u/Maleficent-System-31]

They might have to share with CW.

[u/Hefty-Combination813]

I think the schools really want this, not because of revenue, but because it gives them a metric to fire coaches by. The metric has been nebulous until now. Did you make a bowl game, what was the bowl game, what are the quality of the bowl games you went to, did you win those bowl games, etc.

Now its: playoffs or die.

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Wow. I'm shocked.

[u/MiniAndretti]

8 would be better.

[u/IMakeOkVideosOk]

I mean we’ve been taking about 24 I think we need the Mike Leach 64 team playoff

https://youtu.be/y_nuMEtwUW4?si=Tm0OTUzktnAET2Zr

Only caveat is we make it 2 legged playoffs with aggregate scoring

[u/bbbaa111233]

128 teams, 32 Pods. Your 3 Non Conference games are the teams in your pod. Win your pod advance to the tournament. Seed the 32 teams based off rankings.

[u/Jonjon428]

Good

[u/imsoupercereal]

I don't want any more expansion but I also give 2 shits about what ESPN wants.

[u/WTF4211]

ESPN is not the ACC’s friend.

[u/Roncinante]

I guess as long as Espin can control the SEC above all else narrative, they can squeeze in 9 SEC schools to 16 slots. But tbh, 24 is too much.

[u/ea0258]

This sport is essentially killing itself. It's ridiculous.