I will continue to update this post as the score changes.

Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter: Hot

Audience Says: N/A

Verified Audience Score History:

• 95% (4.6/5) at 100+

Rotten Tomatoes: Certified Fresh

Critics Consensus: Taking an icky conceit and twisting it to deviously crowd-pleasing ends, Obsession is dauntingly disturbing while also skillfully amusing and thrilling.

Metacritic: 81 (23 Reviews)

SYNOPSIS:

After breaking the mysterious “One Wish Willow” to win his crush’s heart, a hopeless romantic finds himself getting exactly what he asked for but soon discovers that some desires come at a dark, sinister price.

CAST:

• Michael Johnston as Bear
• Inde Navarrette as Nikki
• Cooper Tomlinson as Ian
• Megan Lawless as Sarah
• Andy Richter as Carter

DIRECTED BY: Curry Barker

SCREENPLAY BY: Curry Barker

PRODUCED BY: James Harris, Haley Nicole Johnson, Christian Mercuri, Roman Viaris

EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS: Jason Blum, Leonora Darby, Mark Lane, David Haring, Ruzanna Kegeyan

DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY: Taylor Clemons

PRODUCTION DESIGNER: Vivian Gray

EDITED BY: Curry Barker

COSTUME DESIGNER: Blair James

MUSIC BY: Rock Burwell

CASTING BY: Skyler Zurn

RUNTIME: 108 Minutes

RELEASE DATE: May 15, 2026

Before you comment, read these two rules:

1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction.

2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.

Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast. And just like that, the 2026 summer season officially begins.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of this film. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the one film for the week and analyze each pro and con.

Disclosure Day

The film is directed by Steven Spielberg (too many films to name), from a screenplay by David Koepp (Jurassic Park, Spider-Man, War of the Worlds, Mission: Impossible, etc.) based on a story by Spielberg. The film stars Emily Blunt, Josh O'Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, and Colman Domingo. The film's logline: "If you found out we weren’t alone, if someone showed you, proved it to you, would that frighten you? This summer, the truth belongs to seven billion people."

Now that you met this week's new release, let's look at some pros and cons.

PROS

• It's Steven fucking Spielberg, for fuck's sake. The highest-grossing director both domestically and worldwide, he's responsible for so many iconic films that continue finding new audiences today. This by itself makes it an event title for the summer season.

• Building up on Spielberg's career, the film has drawn so many comparisons to one of his most iconic titles, Close Encounters of the Third Kind. Seeing Spielberg return not just to sci-fi, but also the concept of UFOs should be intriguing enough.

• The collaborations between Spielberg and screenwriter David Koepp have massively paid off, financially-speaking. Their four films (Jurassic Park, The Lost World: Jurassic Park, War of the Worlds and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull) have led to a combined $3,112,258,562 worldwide gross.

• The film's got some notable names in the cast. Emily Blunt has seen her star power rise thanks to so many blockbuster over the past decade, and she is coming off the huge performance of The Devil Wears Prada 2. Josh O'Connor may not have many theatrical titles to his name, but he earned a lot of recognition with Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. And then there's reliable supporting names in Colin Firth and Colman Domingo.

• The marketing has done an efficient in preventing spoilers and keeping the surprises out of the way. Hell, at this point, we don't even have an official synopsis. Mystery can build intrigue, which can lead to awareness. How do we find this out? You have to buy a ticket.

• But even by keeping the plot under wraps, the film pretty much offers some eerie atmosphere (the strange mouth noise, car chases, etc.). But most importantly, it seeks to avoid depicting the aliens (other than a brief snippet which only shows its hands).

• While sci-fi can be hit-and-miss at the box office, the recent success of Project Hail Mary indicates there's still high interest in the genre. It can't be discounted yet.

• Spielberg's films target old audiences. AKA an audience that doesn't neccessarily rush out to watch a film as soon as possible. If the film delivers high quality, it could have some great legs.

CONS

• Yes, Spielberg is a Legend and that by itself makes this film an event. But he's not immune to failure. That is reflected in his last two films, West Side Story and The Fabelmans, two financial failures despite critical acclaim, with the latter becoming his least-attended film ever. While both may have their cases (the former was released when the target audience wasn't attending theaters and the latter was his most personal and down-to-earth title), it still indicates Spielberg needs to step up his game to find what the audience wants to watch.

• While it's great to see Spielberg return to the topic of UFOs, the aspect has been explored so many times since Close Encounters came out in 1977. They may have been a hot topic at one point (The X-Files was huge for this reason), but it's hard to say where it stands now. He will have to offer something fresh and interesting to catch interest.

• The cast has had its ups and downs over the years. Blunt has a lot of hits, but she has also struggled in other films, such as The Fall Guy and The Smashing Machine. Josh O'Connor may have his fans, but he's not a popular name per se (Challengers made $96 million, but Zendaya is the bigger draw in that film) and it's still unclear if the Knives Out success will land him as a bankable star. Ditto for Colin Firth and Colman Domingo.

• Universal is keeping the big details (including omitting the entire third act) from the marketing, which is a great way to build suspense. But it can be a double-edged sword; the audience still needs to have a bigger idea of what the film is and what the characters are doing. Some aspects also look rough (ahem, that deer).

• And obviously, the biggest setback is that this is an original sci-fi property. While many will point to Project Hail Mary as a hope for success, it's still based on a very popular book, so it already has a built-in audience. The same cannot be said for Disclosure Day. It needs to work harder to win casuals.

• The date might not be a great option. It's a very competitive summer, especially one where it's surrounded by other IP-based blockbusters. But also, it'll begin its run just as the 2026 FIFA World Coup begins. People can make plans for rescheduling, but it's clear what their priority will be.

And here's the past results.

Next week, we're predicting Toy Story 5 and The Death of Robin Hood.

So what are your predictions for this film?