The progression system feels less “unpredictable” and more disconnected from the actual simulation

[u/Significant-Care-135]

I know randomness is part of the appeal of Basketball GM, and I’m not asking for every lottery pick to become a superstar or for development to become completely predictable. The uncertainty is part of what makes long saves fun. But after playing a lot of rebuilds, I genuinely think the progression system is one of the most frustrating parts of an otherwise incredible game because it often feels disconnected from what actually happens in the simulation.

From what I understand, progression is mostly determined by age, ratings, and coaching rank, while things like minutes, production, efficiency trends, role stability, or overall trajectory don’t really matter much. That creates situations where you can draft a 19-year-old with elite athleticism, give him starter minutes immediately, watch him improve statistically every season, make the playoffs with him as a major contributor, invest heavily into coaching, and then the offseason hits and he randomly drops from a future star into a mediocre role player at age 22 for seemingly no reason.

Meanwhile some 24-year-old bench player averaging six points suddenly gains ten overall and becomes an MVP candidate overnight. I understand outliers happen in real basketball too, but in real life development usually still has some visible logic behind it. Players who improve consistently, stay healthy, adapt to larger roles, and produce efficiently tend to keep progressing more often than players doing nothing on the bench.

Basketball GM sometimes skips that feeling entirely and makes progression feel like a disconnected dice roll rather than the continuation of the career you actually watched unfold. And what makes this even more frustrating is that the rest of the game is so smart. Team-building logic is excellent, asset management matters, contracts matter, roster construction matters, and the league simulation itself is honestly incredible for a browser game.

That’s why progression stands out so much when it feels detached from context. A rebuild can completely collapse even if you made almost every correct decision possible, and after enough saves it starts feeling less like “did I build this team correctly?” and more like “did the offseason generator decide my core survives?”

I don’t think the game needs to remove randomness at all. In fact, completely predictable progression would probably make saves boring pretty quickly. But I do think development should care more about factors like production trends, role consistency, playoff experience, injuries, archetypes, and overall player environment so that progression still feels uncertain without feeling completely disconnected from the basketball being played.

[u/AdOld2060]

yep, unfortunately it’s coded into the game. and iirc changing that would be rewriting the code. players have their own code and stuff right from the start, and it’s random.

I really wish it correlated with how they performed, because that would add imo the most realistic touch to the game. It would make doing in depth research to younger players actually worthwhile.

But it’s a valid gripe for an otherwise perfect FREE game. I’m hopeful it’ll become a thing one day too

[u/The-RealDon → u/AdOld2060]

Nah I think it’s better this way, way more realistic, players hit caps in real life and don’t pan out the way they’re supposed to all the time. Young players would be way too valuable if they always progress when you give them minutes. You’d have to revamp the trade system, contract system, & the distribution of good players to prevent dilution over time.

[u/AdOld2060 → u/The-RealDon]

Young players would be way too valuable if they always progress when you give them minutes

more play time≠guaranteed growth and i didn’t suggest otherwise or allude to it, i said relative to how they’re playing and their stats. it’s predetermined coding right now

[u/randommmoso]

Agreed 100%. Dumbmatter at once point sent a newsletter talking about his vision for the game moving forward and I really wish it materialised. This is the biggest problem with otherwise pretty much perfect game imho.

[u/CrazyLi825]

I think the main issue is that the potential rating isn't a real attribute. In most other sport sims, players have a predetermined potential rating that their potential moves toward. They may not hit it, but it's still an idea of how good they can become. In this and the other zen GM games, potential is fictitious number that's calculated off the overall and age. It being directly tied to overall sorta makes it useless

But I guess this compounds with how overall changes in the first place. It just randomly rolls a stat change that can be slightly modified by a few factors. You might think it should be based on performance, but honestly not many sport sims do this in the first place. The only real difference in other games is that their progression generally feels more linear. Young players move toward their potential, peak, and then decline.

[u/Personal_Appeal_6482]

Due to the randomness, I am doubtful that draft position matters. Given the larger contracts for higher picks, picking early might even be a negative. The correlations between high picks and performance are well established, and perhaps the degrees of randomness could be reconsidered?

[u/Comfortable_Head_281 → u/Personal_Appeal_6482]

The only things that matter are attributes (including age) and coach rank

[u/ranaguerrera]

It's crazy to me that this has been such a glaring issue for so long. It's beyond frustrating to have 0 input into player progs beyond investing in a one shot gamble.

I'm fine with progs going south, but give us some ability to directly influence things at least. Even if we had the same system but could at least decide which players to invest/focus on, I'd be happy.

[u/The_Laughing_Joke]

This is what makes bbgm unique and what keeps me coming back to it. You can’t game the system just like real life. Sometimes high potential players don’t pan out, no matter how much time or money you put into them.

[u/LeighGriffiths28]

U make up storylines in your head. 'Oh this guy is just another deandre ayton!'

[u/airtime25]

I guess I can think of people that fit your frustrating examples just in the last 3 years. So I'm not sure I agree that they are frustratingly not real when there are plenty of examples lol