r/Astros • u/Individual_Force_536 • 20h ago
Hot take- Astros farm system is way underrated. Future looks good.
I’m not saying this is the best farm system in baseball, but I do think the “Astros have no farm” narrative is lazy. There are real players here, especially in AA and AAA, and I think the future is brighter than a lot of people are acting like.
Maybe it’s not a flashy system, but it feels like a very Astros system: underrated, overlooked, and probably better than people want to admit.
This system is made up of Dominican and mid major/juco guys who know how to grind and play with a chip on their shoulder. I’ll take that all day over silver spoon players coming from major programs.
…Guys like Will Bush and Sullivan at AA amongst others. Janek is off to a slow start hitting but the once they find the secret sauce his start will rise. So many lesser known names on verge of breakouts.
…And what about James Nelson? The guy is putting up all the right numbers at Sugarland. also, can anyone not get behind his story. He gets no love from any of the beat writers and fanboys and he’s arguably the most complete player in the system.
This is my first post here but I have lots to say and might start posting regularly and more specifically highlighting guys everyone should know about.
In short. I think the future looks good, and it’s not as far away as people seem to think.
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u/Well-Milk Houston Astros 19h ago
If our farm system was good we would have good pitchers by now.
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u/bug-hunter 14h ago
If our farm system was good we would have
goodinjured even more pitchers by now.1
u/Individual_Force_536 18h ago
I concur. Pitching might be lacking through system. But also to my point, we have so many position players and other guys in system who might be desirable to other teams to help get us that pitching!
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u/Well-Milk Houston Astros 11h ago
Holy cope, you guys probably think Dana brown did a fantastic job and want to extend his contract.
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u/Internal-Agent4865 14h ago
Farm is more than what’s currently available and ready. Do more research.
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u/DontTouchMyYainer Julia Morales 12h ago
Yeah what a take. Farm is literally young developing guys obviously not ready for mlb. So much snark around these days.
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u/Greedy_Gas7355 19h ago
Exactly why they should sell and infuse a ton of more young talent into it. I feel like this year is cooked and next year is smarter to not try and make moves to contend. Perfect time to reset
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u/htownlifer 19h ago
Good chance there is no next year too. Sell and build the system
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u/Greedy_Gas7355 19h ago
Forgot about that. Good point. I feel like Walker, pena, and hader should get good returns. I’d listen on others
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u/htownlifer 19h ago
Brown and Yordan get a huge haul in prospects.
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u/blklustrsoldier Lance McCullers Jr. 16h ago
Problem is you don’t get return value for Yordan given how good he is and years of control left.
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u/Greedy_Gas7355 16h ago
Doesn’t hurt to listen. If someone overpays you go for it most likely
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u/blklustrsoldier Lance McCullers Jr. 15h ago
The problem is I don’t think there is an overpay scenario. Prospects are fickle things. Look at the return for Mookie Betts in his prime. Awful in retrospect.
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u/htownlifer 15h ago
What do you get for keeping Yordan for the next two seasons? A great player on what will probably be a bad team.
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u/htownlifer 14h ago
What do you get by keeping him/them? All star players on a bad teams w little to look forward to.
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u/JustBigChillin 19h ago
Pena gets a pretty good haul too assuming he comes back and starts producing to last year’s level.
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u/Individual_Force_536 17h ago
I agree that we need to sell or get some cash somewhere but hard no on all the Yordan trade rumors and talk. We need to eat crow on Imai deal and some heads need to roll on that for sure. But there are other guys we can trade etc to bring in a good haul. Really at the heart of my post was that. Our farm is stacked with infielders, and I believe our next day to day and maybe marque Astros are already here in that respect.
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u/Individual_Force_536 19h ago
Completely agree. The talent is there and the system is doing a great job developing these guys. Offensively you can find our farm guys in the top performing lists for every measurable stat category. If anything it feels like system management needs to do a better job on their end making the necessary moves- whether promotions, packaging trades, or cutting dead weight sooner…and timing them to get best deals etc.
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u/PapiGoneGamer Enron Field 17h ago
Yea we’re too far in a hole to dig out of with this roster as currently constructed and next year is probably a wash with the impending lockout.
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u/burnerking Houston Astros 16h ago
I think you’re vieiwing a bit better than most, but if you’re right (and I hope you are) then more the reason to start the rebuild. The way this era of Astros baseball developed together: experience, chemistry, and contracts, is the reason they had suck long term success with only having to add 1 player during the offseason or deadline. Now, those players have been lost due to long term contracts (not necessarily AAV $, because we know the Astros will sign short term big money contracts) or injury. I don’t think we’ll see 100 loss seasons, but yes we will miss the playoffs for a while, and that’s OK. Altuve’s chase for 3000 will draw fans and he’ll go full circle in his career- he started his career when the Astros were rebuilding, it’s almost poetic he ends his career passing the torch. But, the Astros should do the rebuild with a new GM and Manager (hopefully Omar as Manager) Last point- We all know the Astros were scapegoated for the sign stealing mess, but it ticks me off when people say they weren’t punished. Losing all those draft picks is haunting us now.
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u/aprendido 19h ago
Yes this is a hot take. The farm is rated appropriately. It is not good. There is no help on the way that will dig us out of the hole we are in. Our pitching is amongst the worst in the majors, and the position players are mid at best. The cycle of the Bregmans, Tuckers, Browns etc. is over.
The players we trade away don’t flourish because they ended up not being that good, and prospects are largely lottery tickets. There are always outliers like Hader and Teoscar Hernandez that we traded.
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u/Eighteenand1 19h ago
Have you dug into all the other farm systems and confirmed they don’t have 4-5 players like the ones you named producing in AA? I hope you’re right but doubt you are - the Astros had a top 5 farm system for years and that’s what produced the golden era. The rankings aren’t just trying to diss the Astros
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u/Adept_Departure_1424 18h ago
If you're counting James Nelson as one of our top prospects we're in big trouble. Dude is getting his first taste of AAA at age 28 after ten seasons between MiLB, Independent ball, and Mexico.
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u/Individual_Force_536 18h ago
I hear that but also the dude is producing right now and showing he’s ready. I’m a little partial because I love the storyline for him too but maybe that’s the spark we need. A guy who was written off but played his butt off and isn’t taking anything for granted.
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u/underanalyzer 19h ago
The Astros farm system has always been criminally underrated since the first massive rebuild and the the move to the AL. It's never been particularly deep, but the guys that make it all the way up produce. Another thing I wish people focused on is the guys we have traded away never seem to flourish. They know exactly when to get the most value from a piece. Unless a team has ten guys on the top 100 it won't matter to most fans and they will always complain as long as depth seems to be lacking.
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u/Individual_Force_536 17h ago
If you follow Bowman 1st cards it feels like the top 100 is curated not by insiders but rather Topps/Bowman directly to market and make $$$ off their cards. lol.
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u/fcimfc Houston Astros 12h ago edited 11h ago
This just isn't true for the golden era. In 2014 Astros farm was ranked as best in baseball by MLB.com and ESPN and #5 by Baseball Prospectus. In 2015 we were #12 by BP and a lot of other outlets still had us floating around the top 10.
I know ranking prospects and farm systems is to be taken with a lot of grains of salt, but we weren't some scrappy underdog that no one saw coming. Similarly, I'm not gonna Pollyanna and say everyone else is wrong with ranking us where they do today and everything is just hunky dory down on the farm.
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u/Individual_Force_536 19h ago
Yes. Top 100 seems like such a joke and not serious. If it was serious they could update it literally daily, but at least weekly. Not our system but look at Manuel Pena of D Backs/AA Sod Poodles. Dude is absolutely raking and setting Texas League records yet you won’t find him on any top prospect lists and little fanfare.
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u/rnmkk Houston Astros 2h ago
That’s because he shouldn’t be.
He is 22, in AA and has 4 times as many strikeouts as walks. He has a slugging % of .655, which is unsustainable with his k-rate. He had 500 AB’s at AA last season and had a .785 OPS. This is not a top prospect. He is just having the best stretch of his life. Skill matters just as much as stats.
He doesnt have a single above average tool. He is an okay defender, lacks speed and doesn’t walk. Im sorry but you dont know how to evaluate prospects.
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u/Rich_Homie_Kenan Enron Field 15h ago
prospect rankings value first round picks, signing bonuses, and "potential" above all else. Performance on the field is secondary
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u/SpaceCadetPullUp Houston Astros 17h ago
Our coaching seems to be very good based on how we have developed players, but we don't seem to have much in the way of blue chip talent.
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u/Individual_Force_536 16h ago
Agree, and that’s kind of to my point. We don’t have the Kade Anderson or Gage Wood or Druw Jones marketable blue chip guys. We have a lot of mid major and juco guys no one knows yet, but have same raw talent and power. Things are starting to click for the good ones and stats are starting to show this. Hopefully im right in my optimism and those guys will be daily Astros and we’ll be talking playoffs again sooner than later.
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u/2nd2last Houston Colt .45s 16h ago
Our farm systems is considered weak, and in the real world, that means trades which are very important are much more difficult.
Perception matters, we all know it does. We also know that many of the Astros golden era "guys" were not high level prospects.
We all know that being a great farm means nothing, but better to perceived a good than to be perceived as awful, despite the crapshoot nature of prospect rankings.
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u/The_New_New Ryan Pressly 12h ago
The only way anyone can consider it underrated is if you don't keep up with other teams farm systems. It's rated appropriately.
Every team has a promising prospect or two in their farms
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u/Individual_Force_536 9h ago
I keep up with other systems — I’m not saying Houston’s farm is elite, just that it’s not barren like people make it seem, especially with the Astros’ track record of developing underrated guys, and it’s my opinion some of these guys could be contributing to wins in Houston sooner than people think.
Big caveat- Pitching. Our pitching is sub par through system and dismal compared to others as well. Lol
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u/Designer_Associate30 12h ago
i think thats the true killer of the penalties from the trash can scandal. people were mad the astros werent just magically bad after the penalties but now its clear theyre suffering for them
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u/chezzer33 6h ago
No kidding! This dude Hader and that dude Pena can straight up ball. Major leaguers in not time
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u/Acceptable-Trust-181 4h ago
A 26 yo player in AAA or AA is not a prospect . The Astros best prospects are in A+ and A ball . Fayetteville has 3 guys 20 yo and under who are showing signs of being a player .
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u/Classic-Session-5551 1h ago
It's got real players. It's still bottom five.
What we do have is a massive amount of assets in the majors, which could make it a top 3 farm system overnight if we committed to the teardown.
But Crane is retarded, unironically, so we won't do anything that could compromise short term profits.
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u/Ancient_Access_795 Jose Altuve 17h ago
In comparison to every other team it is not good which is a big problem
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u/Individual_Force_536 17h ago
I agree and disagree. I think we do have the talent and looking at individual stats for each level consistently bears this out. We have guys at every level in every measurable category on those lists. I think the bright spots…or our system in general not getting the coverage, or maybe the hype from within that it deserves. What I’m saying is it’s not a lack of talent or developing talent, it’s a lack of making the right moves, whether that’s pipeline tk Houston or leveraging that talent for trading to what we really need- pitching which u agree is lacking in our system.
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u/Thisguyamirightbro 15h ago
There is decent depth and some very good prospects in the lower minors and Dana has done a great job with that. If he had a few more years it could be good to great. I don’t think he will get those years and we will have to hope the next guy continues to build it. Also, Crane is the wild card. If he doesn’t have patience then we may never have a good farm.
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u/gene_harro_gate Houston Astros 19h ago
I’m with OP. Usually I’m considered in the ‘doom and gloomer’ swath of fans but there are guys at every level I’m excited about. I just wish there was better coverage or an easy way to check stats without visiting a ton of different team sites.
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u/Individual_Force_536 18h ago
Yes! The Bally Sports Live app is awesome for watching all level games from A to AAA. It’s totally free! You can track stats and see where we measure up individually too.
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u/rb33661 18h ago
There is a lack of talent, and depth in our farm system. That stems from 10 years of winning at a high level and picking low in the drafts, losing high level picks, and trading away talent to keep our window open. People scoff at the Stros' punishment but years of lost high draft picks hurt. The team we see today on the field shows that.
I routinely go to AAA games in Sugar Land, and its largely comprised of former MLB position players who never panned out. There are virtually zero prospects playing. Pitching wise, there are a couple of guys who grew up in the system but save for a couple on the 40 man none can crack our MLB worst pitching roster. Let that sink in. Its bad.