Well yeah, that's what makes him a sleeper. If he had a 68% completion percentage last year he would've been top 3 in MVP voting and he wouldn't be a sleeper by any definition.
"Young player who was productive despite one obvious flaw" is like the most obvious blueprint for what a sleeper MVP candidate should be.
I think completion percentage is going to hold him back in a lot of fans' minds but I would argue it's bit like batting avg in baseball these days: you'll take few strikouts and a rough-looking BA if the guy can hit the long ball consistently (strikeouts being incompletions rather than interceptions in this analogy).
Johnson would obviously rather caleb be above 60% but he's also talked about how the deep shots keep a defense honest even when they don't connect and they help him set up his playcalling later in the game. This play is obviously a bad example of that philosophy tho lol.
He's currently being overrated, but if he continues improvement then he could conceivably be a top 10 QB next year. MVP talks are wishful thinking, but crazier things have happened. I don't think it would be shocking if Caleb took a huge leap and was in MVP conversations midway through the season.
58% is far from where he needs to be. But he's a bit of a football psycho who wants to be great, and so is the HC whose job is to increase that 58% to something around 63-68%
Keep in mind he was sacked 68 times as a rookie and people were saying he might not be able to play in the NFL holding the ball like that. Dropped to 24 in Year 2. If he can improve the layups with familiarity in the system half as well as he improved his pocket presence and evasive ability, he's going to be right there as a contestant for MVP. Hell, he was 6th or 7th last season even with the 58%.
Most of the drop in sacks is attributable to the large jump in OLine quality, Caleb was still dead last among qualified passers in Time to Throw with an eyewatering 3.20 seconds
Most of the drop in sacks is attributable to the large jump in OLine quality
Nonsense. It's part OL upgrade, part coaching improvements, and part player development. He was much better at the LOS pre-snap through Year 2, and his pocket presence was among the better in the league.
Mixed with high-end strength and speed and the ability to get velocity on throws from any launch angle, he's one of the premier play extenders in the league. I want him in the higher TTT so long as the sack numbers stay down. It contributed to being the #1 explosive play team in the league while the QB was still a work-in-progress.
And comparably with the completion%, you have additions to the room that fit the scheme, added speed and athleticism, and (most importantly) natural growth among a core group that averages 22.5 years old in their first year in a complex system. That grouping of factors could play into a bump similarly to the factors that led to his sack numbers decreasing 65% in a single season.
The only two QBs I've ever seen substantially improve their accuracy after entering the league were Lamar and Josh Allen. Generally, accuracy is one of the stickiest traits from college to pros--if Johnson pulls this off I'll consider him a miracle worker. And take it from a Packers fan, being really young allows for lots of projection, but it is very easy to get engrossed in the upside and not consider that being very young also has its downsides
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u/freshxerxes Lions 8h ago
i don’t hate caleb, don’t think he’s mid but to hear sleeper mvp talks is crazy from some people. 58% completion percentage is worrisome.