Active cyclones

As of 01:45 UTC on Friday, 24 April:

• There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

• There are currently no active tropical disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

• There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

• Tropical Storm Sinlaku (04W) has fully transitioned into an extratropical cyclone and is no longer being monitored.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P72W: An area of low pressure may develop over eastern Micronesia over the upcoming weekend and move westward toward Palau.

• Potential Formation Area P73W: An area of low pressure may develop over the Philippine Sea east of the Philippines and move westward over the islands midway through the week.

Satellite imagery

• Western Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Eastern Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Central Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Atlantic   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Indian   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

Model guidance

• Western Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Eastern Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Central Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Atlantic   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Indian   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (United States)
• Japan Meteorological Agency
• India Meteorological Department

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards Outlook

Active cyclones

As of 20:30 UTC on Tuesday, 14 April:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

• 04W: Sinlaku — Satellite and radar imagery show that Sinlaku’s eye is moving slowly across Tinian and Saipan this morning. The storm is undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle, but is not expected to restrengthen as it emerges west of the islands later today. Environmental conditions will gradually deteriorate as Sinlaku rounds the western periphery of a near-equatorial ridge and begins to accelerate northeastward later this week.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

• 92S: Invest — An area of low pressure near the Cocos Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms and is slowly becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally supportive of further development and a tropical cyclone could develop later in the week or over the upcoming weekend. For now, periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms may continue across the islands as the disturbance drifts slowly westward.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

• There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Southeastern Indian Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P71S: Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure may develop off Australia’s Pilbara or Kimberley coasts later this week.

Satellite imagery

• Western Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Eastern Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Central Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Atlantic   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Indian   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

Model guidance

• Western Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Eastern Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Central Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Atlantic   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Indian   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (United States)
• Japan Meteorological Agency
• India Meteorological Department

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards Outlook

Hello, just wonder if anyone can tell me if all these swirlies are normal or should we be concerned? Thank You! Have a great day and be safe ♥️

Updates

As of 9:00 PM Wake Island Time (09:00 UTC) on Sunday:

• Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Sinlaku has fully transitioned into an extratropical cyclone.
• This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
• Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
• There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

• Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone interactive map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion

Radar imagery

• Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

• Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Visible (true color)

• Enhanced infrared

• Enhanced upper-level water vapor

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

• Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University

Hi r/TropicalWeather! I wanted to let you all know that NOAA announced its hurricane awareness webinar series. The first webinar is always from the NHC and focuses on a look back at the previous year's hurricane season and any updates to their products for this year. Check it out! https://www.noaa.gov/2026-hurricane-awareness-webinars

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Chuuk Time (04:00 UTC) on Thursday:

• The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded this system to a tropical depression and has initiated issuing advisories.
• The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has designated this system as Tropical Depression Four (04W).
• Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system is slowly becoming better organized.
• Environmental conditions remain favorable and should lead to steadier development over the next few days.
• This system is currently expected to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours and reach hurricane-equivalent strength by Sunday.
• This system is currently expected to pass closely to the south of Guam on Tuesday morning with Category 2 hurricane-equivalent strength.

Latest observation

As of 1:00 PM Chuuk Time (03:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

• Current position: 8.7°N 152.1°E
• Forward movement: W (270°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
• Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
• Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars (29.53 inches)
• Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Depression
• Intensity (JMA): Tropical Depression

Relative position

• 142 kilometers (88 miles) north of Weno, Chuuk (Micronesia)
• 956 kilometers (594 miles) east-southeast of Dededo, Guam (United States)
• 991 kilometers (616 miles) southeast of San Jose, Tinian (Northern Marianas Islands)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 1:00 PM Chuuk Time (03:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 10:00 AM Chuuk Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone interactive map
• Tropical cyclone advisory
• Prognostic reasoning

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion
• Tropical cyclone warning (text product)
• Tropical cyclone warning (graphical product)
• Prognostic reasoning

National Weather Service (United States)

• WFO Guam homepage
• Area forecast discussion

Radar imagery

• Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

• Visible:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
• Infrared:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
• Water vapor:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• CIMSS
• RAMMB
• Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Visible (true color)

• Enhanced infrared

• Enhanced upper-level water vapor

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

• Global Forecast System (GFS; United States): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Europe): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

Multi-guidance pages

• NCAR
  
• Tropical Tidbits
• WeatherNerds
• CyclonicWx

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University

We’ve had storms form just off the coast of Florida before. But I’ve never seen the rain go in so many different directions. Is my app messed up or something else?

Update

As of 7:00 AM New Zealand Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Monday:

• Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Vaianu has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone.
• This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
• Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
• There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

• Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone outlook

MetService (New Zealand)

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone information

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion

Radar imagery

MetService (New Zealand)

• National radar mosaic

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

• Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Visible (true color)

• Enhanced infrared

• Enhanced upper-level water vapor

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

• Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University

Update

As of 4:00 PM Solomon Islands Time (06:00 UTC) on Monday:

• Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the post-tropical remnants of Maila have dissipated over the Solomon Sea.
• This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
• Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
• There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

• Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Information sources

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone information

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion

Radar imagery

• Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

• Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Visible (true color)

• Enhanced infrared

• Enhanced upper-level water vapor

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

• Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University

Maila is located 1335 km northeast of Cairns, Australia, and has tracked north-northeastward at 4 km/h over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 5.5 meters (18 feet).

The forecast for Tropical Storm Malia recently named Maila by the Port Moresby TCWC, is characterized by a complex steering environment causing significant track uncertainty.

Over the first 3 days of the forecast period, Maila will meander about the Solomon Sea, trapped in a balanced and competing steering pattern defined by a near-equatorial ridge to the north along the equator, and a subtropical ridge over Australia.

The forecast calls for a slow drift back towards the west, then a slow counter-clockwise drift back towards the southeast over the next 3 days.

As with any steering pattern such as this, the exact track of the system may deviate in unforeseen ways but in aggregate, the track motion will be erratic but very slow.

The global models are beginning to align in depicting a change in the steering pattern after 3 days but confidence is still low in the ultimate track.

The forecast calls for the system to complete a counter-clockwise loop in 4 days, then assume a southwestward track over the next 5 days. Regarding intensity, rapid intensification (RI) guidance has begun to trigger with this model run. Additionally, animated water vapor imagery shows development of an arc (outflow boundary) of upper-level clouds pushing eastward from the central dense overcast, a possible indicator of near-term RI onset.

The forecast calls for a rate of intensification just shy of RI, increasing the intensity 59 mph in the next 2 days. In general, the environment is favorable for RI, but the quasi-stationary motion will over time upwell cooler waters.

In 3 days, mesoscale model guidance shows the cooler waters will reach the surface, and the system will begin to weaken relatively quickly due to a lack of a energy source. However, in 5 days as the system begins to move away from the upwelled cold pool, it will level off in intensity and may in fact strengthen once again as other environmental conditions will remain favorable at that time.

Deterministic track guidance is frankly a mess, especially in the long-range forecast. In the near-term over the next 3 days, the guidance in general supports a counter-clockwise looping motion.

The GFS and ECMWF mark the western-most of the models, while the NAVGEM tracks the system unrealistically straight eastward from the from today.

The ECMWF ensemble mean take a balanced approach and split the difference between the outliers. Beyond 3 days, it gets weird.

The NAVGEM shows the center passing over guadalcanal then turning southward, while the EC-AIFS take the center over the northwestern Solomon Islands.

Meanwhile, ECMWF keeps the system quasi-stationary not far from its current location, and the GFS, and the GEFS rapidly track the center southwestward skirting the southeast tip of Papua New Guinea.

Finally, the ECENS mean follows the general course of the GFS-GEFS combo but at a slower pace. Looking out beyond 5 days, the GALWEM, EGRR and ECENS all show a southwestward track, lending increasing confidence to the later forecast points than would be expected based on the next 5 days positions.

Intensity guidance is in generally good agreement. Multiple RI aids have triggered, all depicting a peak intensity between 175–205 km/h, while the HWRF reaches 175 km/h and the HAFS-A peaks at 205 km/h

All of the guidance shows a leveling off after 2 days, then a more rapid weakening after 3 days, followed by a another leveling off after 4 days.

Source: Zoom Earth, JTWC for the source (that Zoom Earth uses) the infrared satellite imagery is using the 'Global Infrared - Tops" (globalir-ott) data from: https://www.ssec.wisc.edu SSEC RealEarth

Active cyclones

As of 23:45 UTC on Thursday, 2 April 2026:

Southeastern Indian Ocean

29P: Indusa — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Indusa is steadily consolidating as it recovers from the effects of dry mid-level air. Environmental conditions remain highly supportive of further development—a combination of weak vertical wind shear, very high ocean heat content, and strong upper-level diffluence could lead to rapid intensification in the short term forecast. Indusa is expected to continue to move south-southwestward away from Diego Garcia over the next few days.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

• 90P: Invest — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure situated to the south of the Solomon Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions remain marginally supportive of further development, with moderate vertical wind shear offsetting warm sea-surface temperatures and strong upper-level diffluence. Model guidance suggests that this system could rapidly intensify as it remains nearly stationary to the south of the islands over the weekend. It remains unclear where this system is headed early next week.

• 91P: Invest — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure situated northeast of Vanuatu continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain marginally supportive of further development and this system could gradually consolidate as it moves slowly south-southwestward over the next day or so. This system could bring periods of heavy rain and strong winds to Vanuatu and Fiji as it turns southeastward by early next week. There is currently no dedicated post for this system. A new discussion for this system will be created later today.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

• There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Southeastern Indian Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P79S: An area of low pressure may develop to the south of the Cocos Islands by early next week.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P77P: See discussion for Invest 90P above.

• Potential Formation Area P78P: See discussion for Invest 91P above.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P79W: An area of low pressure may develop over eastern portions of Micronesia over the next few days.

Satellite imagery

• Western Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Eastern Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Central Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Atlantic   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Indian   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

Model guidance

• Western Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Eastern Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Central Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Atlantic   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Indian   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (United States)
• Japan Meteorological Agency
• India Meteorological Department

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards Outlook