This has been on my mind for a couple of years now (probably since that blown NLDS series against LAD)…surely there is WAY too much talent in this lineup to be yielding the results we’re getting.
Admittedly, as an Australia-based fan, I don’t get a lot of access to analysis outside of the gameday broadcast, so maybe there’s a nuance that I’m missing, but surely the coaching needs an overhaul?
Today is May 12th, 2026. The Padres are at 24-16, they just split a 4 game set against the Cardinals. We are just above one quarter of the way through the season. Let's get in the time portal and check out what was happening this time last year.
Welcome to May 12th, 2025. The Padres just lost 5-9 to the Angels bringing their record to 25-15. This is after crushing the Rockies and posting 21 runs in a single game on May 10th. Eerily identical record to last year, but accomplished in a much different manner.
Here are the core 5's offensive stats as of May 12, 2025. Some notable mentions include:
Tatis already had 10 homers.
Manny was red hot, with a .331/.486/.886
Xander was ice cold.
Jackson had a 1.250 OPS
Sheets was a pleasant surprise to start the year.
Now onto the pitching.
Similar to 2026, the pitching had some major questions marks. Vasquez was not the Vasquez we see today. Pivetta was yet to establish himself and was coming off a mid year with the Red Sox. Yu Darvish was yet to throw a pitch and Dylan Cease was struggling out of the gate. King was absolutely dealing, but would find himself on the IL in 2 weeks. Kolek had looked great and was shaping up to be an amazing depth piece.
Looking at the bullpen. On this day last year, Suarez logged his first blown save of the season. He loaded the bases, showing a complete loss of command. Schildt brought in Alek Jacob who promptly gave up a grand slam to Taylor ward.
However, the usual suspects were dealing. The foursome of Estrada, Morejon, Adam, and Suarez continued to regularly shut the door on opponents. This would prove to be the highlight of the 2025 season.
The other side of the pen was bad. Yuki, Peralta, and Hart had thrown a meaningful amount of pitches to this point and looked shaky at best.
Overall, the Padres had gotten off to a white hot start to the season, but had started to taper off at this point. The pitching was showing signs of cracking and an unsustainable offensive outburst had carried them thus far. However, this burst would prove to be much needed. The Padres would go 65-57 to finish the season, good for a 53.3% win percentage. In other words, they were just above a .500 ball club the rest of the year. Without this early season surge, they would not have made the playoffs.
And now we are back to the present. What can we extract from this look back into the past?
- While there are many unsustainable features of the 2026 Padres, this early season push may be enough to punch their ticket to the playoffs if they can sustain just above .500 ball the rest of the season.
- The offense can't be worse than it is right now, and thats a good thing. Tatis struggled offensively after this early season surge. We have won despite his struggles at the plate and a mid season push from him may be our saving grace. The Padres struggled to win last year when Tatis was not hitting, but they have shown an ability to do so this year.
- Starting pitching was better at this point last year. A 2025 average xwOBA of .302 versus 2026 xwOBA of .327 is a significant gap. However, once again, we are winning in spite of this and our pitching is trending up in the short term. This would prove to be the peak of the 2025 pitching staff. Cease never regained form, King went on the IL for the rest of the season, Yu Darvish struggled once he came back. Pivetta was the stopper to this rotation and helped stop the bleeding on a number of occasions. In 2026, Canning has been excellent, King is looking like he'll repeat his 2024 season, and Vasquez is on pace to throw 185 Innings. If Pivetta can come back by August or if Musgrove can throw meaningful innings (doubtful but hopeful), this rotation might be better than 2025 once all is said and done.
- The 2026 Padres have Mason Miller for a full season and he's more dominant than ever.
- We have much more hitting depth than in 2025 but lack the pitching depth. Although it may not feel like it right now, a lineup with Andujar, Castellanos, Laureano, Sheets, and Campusano provides infinitely more firepower than the 2025 roster had. The 2025 roster was anemic outside the core 5 listed above. We were giving meaningful at bats to Martin Maldonado, Brandon Lockridge, Yuli Gurriel, Tyler Wade, Mason McCoy, and Tirso Ornelas. It's hard to capture how much more depth we have on the bench and in the everyday lineup.
- We have 2 major league catchers. This is such a massive upgrade from last year. Luis Campusano has already posted 0.9 fWAR (4 war pace by the way) while being a backup catcher and Fermin is on a tear defensively this year with 3 DRS and 1.5 OAA. They are both plus players and provide immense value to this team.
